• conshmillo 1:18 pm on January 22, 2015 - 4 days ago


    Oil approaching possible breakout @49.50.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 3:59 am on January 23, 2015 3 days ago

      King Abdullah dead + turmoil in Yemen = ? It should mean fear of possible disruption of suply = price going higher.

  • 5

    conshmillo 6:59 am on January 20, 2015 - 6 days ago

    I know that earnings are in front of us and Apple may surprise, but I want to share very ugly picture AAPL chart is pointing to. It is showing the peak of 119.75 it reached in December 2014. Then there is the drop to 106, recovery that is unable to beat that peak and turning down again at 115 going back to 106 support. Next attempt to raise peaks at 113 and drops again down to 106 support where we are today. In other words every subsequent peak on short term chart being lower and lower. This is text book setup for breaking the support. Not saying it has to, just that’s what this chart is pointing to.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 5:21 pm on January 21, 2015 5 days ago

      touched 111 this morning, which is still in the line with downtrend of the upper line. Let’s see if it can break out of that. If yes it should be strong upward move.

      • eatingbeets

        eatingbeets 10:30 pm on January 22, 2015 3 days ago

        Closed above $112. Did we break the trend or is this just a fluke since Dow is also up 250?

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 2:05 am on January 23, 2015 3 days ago

          It broke the upper line. But you will see if it is real breakout if we see tomorrow/next week big jump upwards. Breakout traders that look for bigger moves load their positions at these breakout lines. If it goes, it should go big in short time. If it doesn’t go strongly up, they would be placing their bets next @106 which is a good position if it breaks down, as in this case it should drop rapidly down in short period of time.

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 1:05 am on January 23, 2015 3 days ago

      I know charting is thought to reveal psychology, and it may indeed, but perhaps fundamentals are exerting their effect on or in spite of market psychology. I keep seeing news that points to very goof sales of the 6 and 6+ over the past 2 months, which would seem to indicate Apple has been doing much better than the market thought. Perhaps Apple will be making a prettier chart now?

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 2:09 am on January 23, 2015 3 days ago

        Think of the charting as orienting yourself in short term plays where fundamentals are more useful in longer term plays. Thing is traders, both institutional and retail pay attention to these things which means it influences their decisions. That by itself contributes to usefulness of it. You never can calculate into it unknown surprises etc. But it gives you some picture of current sentiment.


    rastard 11:48 pm on January 16, 2015 - 9 days ago


    Sell AAPL Jan 17 ’15 $72.14 Call Executed @ $33.67 (this is closing the pre-split transaction from 1/3/2014 Buy AAPL Jan 17 ’15 $505 Call Executed @ $42.19)

    Buy AAPL Jan 15 ’16 $110 Call Executed @ $11.07

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:58 pm on January 16, 2015 9 days ago

      that’s a good one, 450+% profit in less than one year ;)

      • rastard

        rastard 2:19 am on January 17, 2015 9 days ago

        Yeah, but a dumbass move inasmuch as had I made the purchase 2 weeks earlier last year, my sale today would have qualified for long-term capital gains treatment. Even worse, on the calls I purchase today — I just realized that even if I end up holding them all the way through to their expiration, I’ll still be one day short of a year. D’oh!


    rastard 11:44 pm on January 16, 2015 - 9 days ago


    Copying nicu. In AXPW @ 0.76/share

    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:00 am on January 17, 2015 9 days ago

      Welcome and good luck with this dark knight!

      Don’t get too involved, I know I did and sometimes I wonder if I went nuts LOL

  • 1

    piero 12:44 am on January 16, 2015 - 10 days ago

    May be you know it already since it is from a comment on june’14, but I received a couple of days ago and I found it perfect for the timing and the content! Enjoy!

    “So let me get this right. We support the Iraq government in the fight against ISIS. We don’t like ISIS, but ISIS is supported by Saudi Arabia who we do like. We don’t like Assad in Syria. We support the fight against him, but ISIS is also fighting against him. We don’t like Iran, but Iran supports the Iraqi government in its fight against ISIS. So some of our friends support our enemies, some enemies are now our friends, and some of our enemies are fighting against our other enemies, who we want to lose, but we don’t want our enemies who are fighting our enemies to win. If the people we want to defeat are defeated, they could be replaced by people we like even less, and all this was started by us invading a country to drive out terrorists who were not actually there until we went in to drive them out. I think I’ve got it.”
    By Richard Alan Jones

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 3:48 am on January 16, 2015 10 days ago

      Nah, we win. We sell guns to all of them.

  • 5

    Richard 10:16 pm on January 15, 2015 - 11 days ago

    Bought TurboTax as usual. For my 2014 Income Tax. Installed. Tried to open: “You have Mac OS X 10.6.8 The application requires 10.7 or later” Reviews of Yosemite are horrible! I wonder if I should finally sell my AAPL stock?

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:32 pm on January 15, 2015 10 days ago

      Yosemite is 10.10, what are you doing on 10.6.8?

      Keep at least 25% of your stock for Jan 27 if you like game :D (be aware Greek elections are the week-end before that, may pour water even on 70M or 80M iPhones – 80M not gonna happen btw)

      • henrystar

        Richard 10:37 pm on January 15, 2015 10 days ago

        I am a research physicist and am completely dependent on Fortran. My Fortran works perfectly on my present machines. I am terrified of “upgrading.” That is the ONLY reason I am so behind the times!

        • piero

          piero 12:37 am on January 16, 2015 10 days ago

          Don’t worry Richard, I’m a videomaker and I run the snow leopard too. The only thing that I’ve dove, is to have 10.8 Mavericks (free) on another partition to use updated software. Or you can use a secondary disk or an external one possibly eSata connection or FW800 if you don’t have Thunder or Usb 3.0 ports.!

    • SB

      SB 1:00 am on January 16, 2015 10 days ago

      I had the same problem as you, only earlier as I am still running 10.5.8. I kept the machine running 10.5.8 and bought a mac mini for modern applications. No regrets (but yes, some $).

    • henrystar

      Richard 1:35 pm on January 16, 2015 10 days ago

      Thanks to all for the excellent suggestions!


    Nicu 8:51 pm on January 15, 2015 - 11 days ago


    in Jan 30 $115 C @ $1.24

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:52 pm on January 15, 2015 11 days ago

      those are for earnings, will get more if they get cheaper

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:24 pm on January 16, 2015 10 days ago

      wanted to buy more @ $1 yesterday evening and ended up with an fat finger error, got some 20% more @ $1.2

    • Nicu

      Nicu 4:28 pm on January 16, 2015 10 days ago

      doubled the entire bet @ 95c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:57 pm on January 20, 2015 6 days ago

        improved all $115 C to $113 C @ 40c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:14 pm on January 16, 2015 10 days ago

      in Jan 30 $114 C @ $1

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:20 pm on January 20, 2015 6 days ago

        improved all $114 C to $112 C @ 50c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:16 pm on January 23, 2015 3 days ago

      in Jan 30 $117 C @ $1.50

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:02 pm on January 23, 2015 3 days ago

      in Jan 30 $118 C @ $1.1

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:03 pm on January 23, 2015 3 days ago

      in Jan 30 $116 C @ $1.71

  • 1

    conshmillo 9:23 pm on January 14, 2015 - 12 days ago

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:58 am on January 15, 2015 11 days ago

      I remain skeptical about the supposed value of this “currency”. Even a real one like the gold (has history on its side, but still not a sure bet) or the euro needs confidence to exist and thrive, despite the fact that is backed by a real (but declining, of course) economy, (more or less artificial, like in not voted for) laws and lots of guns (both ECB and real guns).

      But when confidence that Bitcoin is worth anything fizzles, there is no backstop against one of the most unreliable human emotions out there.

  • 3

    Nicu 2:35 pm on January 13, 2015 - 13 days ago

    Lots of options in existence (2.285 M calls, 2.944 M puts), as they were available for about two stormy years. So I have computed Max Pain, the closing price that would minimise the total value of options (TOV) expiring this Friday (in existence as of yesterday’s close).

    Max Pain is $100, TOV = $1.672B
    Other points: $95 – TOV = $1.824B, $105 – TOV = $1.775B, $110 – TOV = 42.089B, $115 – TOV = $2.641

    So, despite the fact that I would like it to be above $115 on Friday (and that it looks very green as of now), signs point to below $110. I will try to get out of calls as soon as possible and reinforce my puts position on the cheap.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:37 pm on January 13, 2015 13 days ago

      Usually, Max Pain starts to be manifest itself during the second half of the week, but anything is possible, including stronger forces than Max Pain changing the picture.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:26 am on January 14, 2015 12 days ago

      “$110 – TOV = 42.089B” -> “$110 – TOV = $2.089B”, of course, it’s less than $4B even at $120

      anyway, I feel there’s an issue with my graph, by theory, it should be convex (angle of the tangent increasing) – I will investigate today !

      • Nicu

        Nicu 9:46 am on January 14, 2015 12 days ago

        OK, it’s because the non-integer strikes, that make larger and smaller intervals on the x-axis for the strikes; Numbers does not change spacing and I’m not going to work to have a 100% correct picture as long as values are fine ;)

  • 1

    JPWatkins 5:42 am on January 13, 2015 - 13 days ago

    I thought Consh might like this.

    Adobe has dipped a toe into the hardware space with a digital stylus and ruler designed for the iPad. They are called Ink and Slide:

    This is a good, but long winded review that also delves into the evolution and technical difficulties of of styli for iOS. It might mollify Consh a bit as to why Apple hasn’t made a stylus:

    I really like the idea of Slide as a virtual line template (but it probably doesn’t require a physical piece of hardware to do this.) Anyway, the product is interesting, if eye-wateringly expensive. It could be a nice beachhead for great Adobe hardware/software down the road.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 9:14 pm on January 14, 2015 12 days ago

      John, what I want is something that behaves and feels like a pencil. Sharp tip (software expandable), pressure sensitive, no hand smudges and digital eraser on the opposite side of the pencil. iOS wide so it works absolutely everywhere. I just want to be able to grab it and start drawing.

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