• JPWatkins

    JPWatkins 1:51 am on September 18, 2014 - 4 hours ago

    So now that I’ve been able to review things, I have to say I’m pleased.
    The new iPhone looks great. I’m maybe not so disappointed with the Awatch (to early to tell,) and Apple looks good (I’m glad to have the new U2 album.)
    Apple Pay looks like it might be done right and will simplify payment. The Awatch looks far superior to competitors in every way that has yet been revealed (wait till we really get to see it to say for sure though.) New iPhone will knock em dead and sell gangbusters.

    Most interesting/tantalizing tidbits?
    • New A8 processor: what will this enable?
    • Given: 1.) Camera on new iPhone looks really great and 2.) Mention of using the Awatch as a viewfinder for the iPhone camera, leads me to . . . Even I will now admit consumer point and shoot cameras and camcorders are truly dead. And finally, they deserve to die.
    • I take it back, the haptictap feature (or whatever it’s called) looks interesting and useful.
    • Great interaction design on the Awatch. Apparently what we have seen is only the tip of the iceberg. How else will Apple make the Awatch useful/helpful?
    • Maybe it still has a way to go, but the Awatch will sell like hotcakes.

    Feel free to think I’ve been disrupted by a reality distortion field, but I stand by my opinion. :-)

  • 3

    Richard 8:53 pm on September 17, 2014 - 9 hours ago

    Clumsy! Oafish! Would Steve ever have done that? Hey, let’s put a free copy of the Book of Mormon in everyone’s private space at Apple! And then lets….

    • Zee

      Zee 11:35 pm on September 17, 2014 6 hours ago

      If you’re advocating:-) I have a book list. Mostly books on playing derivatives/options, chart histories…

      As for the BoM. You know MR the previous R candidate who ran for POTUS is M. As a young man he did missionary work on the French Riviera. Cool eh. Spending all day on someone’s yacht trying to save their soul, instead of serving in Vietnam. What a saint.

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 2:02 am on September 18, 2014 4 hours ago

      Yes, Steve may well have done this, but . . .
      I think this was a rare occurrence (to set a record for biggest album release.) Apple’s not about to start spamming us. If they do something like this once every 5-10 years, there just isn’t a problem.
      (And I am enjoying the album.)

      • Zee

        Zee 3:53 am on September 18, 2014 2 hours ago

        Maybe back at Elevation Partners, Bono can say after the Apple favour to his co EP partner Roger MacNamara to chill on the anti Apple stuff that Roger comes out w on CNBC.

  • conshmillo 6:31 pm on September 17, 2014 - 11 hours ago


    Just updating unpleasant truth on my trades. I made quite a large bets on short term puts which will expire on Friday. 70% of my positions in quite bad shape.

  • 4

    rastard 11:54 pm on September 15, 2014 - 2 days ago

    “Wall Street analysts are often criticized for being too bullish, so imagine the conundrum they face when they love a stock but still think it’s risen too far, too fast.

    That’s the gist in Morgan Stanley’s note on Tesla Motors TSLA -9.08% Monday morning, as the firm’s analysts lined up behind the automaker’s founder Elon Musk, who recently said the stock has gotten ahead of itself. (See “A Brief History Of CEO Warnings About High-Flying Stocks.”)

    “I think our stock is kind of high right now,” Musk said, before adding that the long-term prospects are still bright, an assessment Morgan Stanley agreed with.

    “We are big believers in Tesla’s strategy,” the analysts say. “But we do not expect the stock to appreciate so consistently and one-directionally from here.”

    That would mark a diversion for a stock that has surged in more or less a straight line since January 2013.”


    • rastard

      rastard 11:55 pm on September 15, 2014 2 days ago

      Oops – hit submit too fast. Posting for posterity to record today’s 9.08% ($25.34) drop.

      • Zee

        Zee 1:52 am on September 16, 2014 2 days ago

        He shot himself in the foot. I betcha he’ll never say anything like this again.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 2:03 pm on September 16, 2014 2 days ago

          It’s not the first time. He will say it again :D

          • Zee

            Zee 6:45 am on September 17, 2014 23 hours ago

            Maybe between now and next time he’ll have become a truly wonderful dancer.

  • 20

    Nicu 1:55 pm on September 12, 2014 - 6 days ago

    So much mouth foam during the last couple of years about how Apple will roll on the floor and die when (soon) the mighty carriers get tired of forfeiting their profits to Apple. In real life it turns out that in a saturated market (the US), the best way to get customers from your competition is to be very aggresive with offers for the best phone out there. With the most poweful punch directly in Samsung’s soft spot, I see nothing that stops Apple from selling 200M iPhone 6 and 250M iPhone 6S (next year’s model).

    End of 2015 – first half of 2016 target: $150. Be aware, we will have at least another 20-40% dip, but there is no way to know when and from what level :)


  • 6

    eatingbeets 4:56 am on September 10, 2014 - 8 days ago

    How do you guys think AAPL stands to profit off of this payments thing? I was thinking a fraction of a cent per transaction on what will eventually be billions of transactions per day. Would also like to see them offer some sort of rewards points system. Imagine being able to spend your rewards points on a new iPad or iPhone every year instead of airline miles with weird rules and blackout dates. Good way to lock customers into the ecosystem!

    This watch on the other hand… I’m not sure about. It’s not very sexy and it doesn’t seem very useful. More like a toy than TNBT. I nervous that it won’t sell and I fear that wall street may punish the stock unfairly if I’m right. Even if they are printing money on iPhone sales and mobile payment revenues, a flop for the first time in 10 years would be a disaster.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 7:14 am on September 10, 2014 8 days ago

      Apple Pay was the best bit of all of the news. New phones look good but that was expected. Nothing groundbreaking there. Apple Watch (not sure why departure from “i” naming convention) didn’t strike me interesting and may indeed be a flop, especially due to the dependency on iPhone and having high price tag. As John mentioned, frequent need to charge batteries may be deal breaker for some too.

    • rastard

      rastard 12:00 am on September 16, 2014 2 days ago

      I’m torn. Mobile payments is a nut that no one has been able to crack yet, and is ripe for Apple’s picking. However, at the same time, aside from being nifty and cool, I’m really not clear what problem it’s trying to solve.

      My two favorite snippets from the article:

      “Mr. Cook showed a video at the product rollout of a woman burrowing in her purse for a credit card, navigating past a box of Tic Tacs — Tic Tacs! — and struggling to open her wallet in order to find her card, then being asked to show her driver’s license before completing the transaction. It had a lot in common, actually, with those infomercials in which actors manage to horribly bungle the most basic tasks until some new product solves a nonproblem.”


      “It’s a dangerous business to bet against Apple’s ability to make a product that you didn’t think you needed as part of your daily life.”

      • Zee

        Zee 2:02 am on September 16, 2014 2 days ago

        I don’t think it’s always or just about problem solving. That’s why I like the word milieu. We’re in a new era based on amazing tech and tech literacy and IT. And this era is moving exponentially in how it’s seemingly making aspects of the past rapidly look anachronistic. Hmm. So it’s in my opinion a cultural thing apart from problem solving that we have going that borders on fetishism at times.

      • JPWatkins

        JPWatkins 7:46 pm on September 16, 2014 1 day ago

        Well it addresses security issues rather well. If it can also reduce credit charges, I’d say those are two problems I’d like to see fixed.

  • conshmillo 8:03 pm on September 9, 2014 - 8 days ago


    Market has a down day. F&N unbelievable!

    • Zee

      Zee 10:18 pm on September 10, 2014 7 days ago

      Maybe I cheer you up? Article. Over 1331 comments. Crazy Putin update.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 12:08 am on September 11, 2014 7 days ago

      I would never cheer for that. But anyway this market doesn’t respond to nuclear threads. If anything, more nukes would make this market go probably higher. It actually doesn’t matter because exactly opposite mega events with totally opposite consequences would cause this market to go higher anyway.

      • Zee

        Zee 1:43 am on September 11, 2014 7 days ago

        I was being ironic in an effort to be funny. And maybe you are onto something re it going wtf up. IOW: Very anti intuitive market movement hmm. But I think if the markets crumbled it’d be worse than ever. Even worse then last time including the 30′s.

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 6:28 am on September 11, 2014 7 days ago

          I really believe that main element that is allowing this behavior is introduction of weekly options. Some quants wrote some hedging model that allows constant rotation between weekly and monthly options or underlying security. The second one becomes profitable it is pumped right back into circulation. Like having weekly protection on put side on cheap so when someone bigger tries to short the market they get it right back and pump it into long positions. Something like that.


    Nicu 5:57 pm on September 9, 2014 - 8 days ago


    in Sep. 12 $97 P @ 15c (if the iWatch is ugly)

    cashed in two call spreads, I will detail later

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:10 pm on September 9, 2014 8 days ago

      out of 25% of those @ $1.52

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:39 pm on September 10, 2014 8 days ago

      sold the remaining ones @ 20c (they went for over 60c today – kept them as insurance, but I feel there no more real danger of a crash until Friday)

  • Nicu 5:03 pm on September 9, 2014 - 9 days ago


    Video drops, goes low res, even an “Access denied” at

    Will they ever get it how to make those pipes work?

  • conshmillo 3:49 pm on September 8, 2014 - 10 days ago


    Forget easing. Lowering cost of money for corporate borrowing will never never create any new jobs anyway. It just increases income for corporate elite and CEOs. Increase sales tax on all non domestically produced products and you may make domestic production more attractive and pay debts faster.

    • Zee

      Zee 6:46 am on September 9, 2014 9 days ago

      I recently heard someone say: there never was a good tax. The implication is what’s wrong? Why is there a void. Anyway. If you tax imports you will immediately find your exports taxed. That’s what free trade agreements try to eliminate because trade wars don’t help. And I know. Since the 2007-2009 Great Recession it’s been a jobless economic recovery. The solution: I don’t know. More available and affordable education? Unschooling kids so they’re not taught what to remember but how to think and learn. Streaming students is not good either. Currently the brightest kids are from S. Korea, Poland and Finland. And it’s not cuz they have tablets.

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