• 1

    conshmillo 8:17 am on May 24, 2015 - 2 days ago

    “Stay tuned. A report by Mark Gurman, the Senior Editor of 9to5Mac, talks about what Apple may be working on to energize tablet use over the next year.
    New deal number one: split-screen app viewing mode. New deal number two: 12-inch iPads codenamed J98 and J99. New deal number three: support for multi-user logins.”


    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 8:17 am on May 24, 2015 2 days ago

      How about fucking iPen?

  • 7

    conshmillo 2:03 am on May 14, 2015 - 12 days ago

    “Tesla‘s Powerwall and Powerpack batteries have generated a massive wave of interest – just ten days after launch the company sold out of the Powerwall until mid-2016, and Musk conceded that Tesla should make its 5 million square foot Nevada battery factory “bigger.” This enthusiasm has translated into $800 million worth of reservations, according to Bloomberg Businessweek—and if Tesla can turn that interest into actual revenue, the battery could hit $1 billion in sales faster than the iPhone.”


    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 2:31 am on May 15, 2015 11 days ago

      That’s rather an amazing response.
      I wonder who the customers are: Tesla/electric-vehicle people, solar/wind folks, off-peak folks, or exactly what.

    • SB

      SB 6:49 pm on May 21, 2015 4 days ago

      • JPWatkins

        JPWatkins 9:09 pm on May 21, 2015 4 days ago

        Both of these articles are simplistic in their analysis. US power companies are doing everything they can to undermine net metering while also working hard to shift their pricing structure so we pay a lot for power distribution (being on the grid) and not so much for the power. In other words, de-incentivising conservation and subsidizing consumption and waste. It’s great for commercial customers and sucks for residences. The obvious synergies and advantages of being connected to the grid are slowly being spoiled for homeowners. Ironically it’s rural electrics, mostly run as cooperatives, that are most small customer friendly, despite the obviously greater infrastructural costs of delivering power in rural areas. No surprise that power companies are also doing everything they can to undermine these rural electrics too.
        So long story short, I see products, at least something like the PowerWall, being a logical next step for homeowners. Not just to do power shifting, but to get off the grid altogether. To say F U, power companies. [If this becomes a trend, look to the power companies to lobby vigorously for legislation outlawing "being off the grid."] Despite what these analysts think, the technology and economic are changing faster than they realize and their simplistic calculations aren’t keeping up. Cutting the cord to the grid, and doing so economically, is a fast approaching reality.

        • SB

          SB 10:43 pm on May 21, 2015 4 days ago

          Yes, but less simplistic than the articles simply fawning over Elon and the reported number of reservations. Bottom line, at this time it currently doesn’t make economic sense for most. Security/convenience of a backup solution is another matter, and there will be takers for that reason. I may be one. But I think my most likely backup solution will be a natural gas generator. Battery backup is only good for outages of limited duration.

          • conshmillo

            conshmillo 4:29 am on May 24, 2015 2 days ago

            As long as there is going to be sun up next day you’ll be alright indefinitely.

            • SB

              SB 12:19 am on May 25, 2015 1 day ago

              My system is sized for about 80% of my average electricity needs – and certainly not adequate to run AC in a Southern California August. Which, unfortunately, is the time I am most likely to see an outage. But we also suffered an outage of 5-7 days when we had a big windstorm in December of 2011. Not a lot of photons hitting the panels at that time of year.

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 4:36 am on May 24, 2015 2 days ago

          Aren’t we living in a great age? Both power companies and oil companies are getting their asses kicked. So does coal. Now if only someone could kick ass of internet providers. I think cable is starting to get their asses kicked already. Who did I left out. Ahh, big banks. Somebody please kick their butt too.


    Nicu 1:41 pm on May 11, 2015 - 15 days ago


    in 1 (small) lot of Jan 16 $135 C @ $6.95 – ready to add, improve etc. if it goes lower; I will simply try to go slow / buy more only when price variations are large

    • SB

      SB 3:39 pm on May 11, 2015 15 days ago

      Was that a $145 C? bid on 135 is 10.40 two hours later …. and 145 is 6.70.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 9:57 pm on May 11, 2015 14 days ago

        are you looking at J16 or J17? I took Jan16, they are $135 C

        • SB

          SB 4:02 pm on May 12, 2015 14 days ago

          Weird. Was using Google finance. Numbers are incorrect there, and apparently unchanged.

          • Nicu

            Nicu 9:27 pm on May 12, 2015 13 days ago

            I would say normal ;) Just don’t trust Google with anything worthy!

  • 4

    conshmillo 8:28 am on May 1, 2015 - 25 days ago

    Hey guys, Apple is dead. Long live Tesla.


    • SB

      SB 4:39 pm on May 1, 2015 25 days ago

      Tesla’s valuation is ridiculous

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 8:02 pm on May 1, 2015 24 days ago

        Valuation is a relative thing. I believe in people with vision and ability to execute. Steve had it. Elon has it. They are people ahead of their time. Until those backwarders finally figure out what’s going on, it is already too late for them to stop the train. Steve did it if mobile devices. Elon is doing it with energy.

        • SB

          SB 11:16 pm on May 4, 2015 21 days ago

          There’s no doubt Elon has vision, but the home battery space is not uniquely his. Enphase announced their take on it last fall, and here’s one opinion that thinks their solution is superior:

          When I installed my solar panels in 2004, I passed on the then offered lead-acid battery backup solutions – they were pricy (5k or so for my 4.5 kw system), had limited life, and decreased the overall efficiency of the system. These issues all pretty much remain today, although perhaps to a lesser extent. Regardless, it is a nice option to be able to offer to Solar City’s customers, and to the extent he is able to commoditize rechargeable batteries, that will of course be a boon to his ability to offer lower priced EVs as well.

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 2:34 am on May 15, 2015 11 days ago

      I wonder, is Elon getting those Al ion battery folks at Stanford lined up to work for him yet?

  • 2

    SB 7:40 pm on April 30, 2015 - 25 days ago

    Price seems to be gravitating towards this weeks 125 Max Pain point.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:04 pm on April 30, 2015 25 days ago

      I was thinking about that, but I did not do the estimates (looks like $125 to the naked eye). However, those earnings should beat max pain, sometimes even a mild market wind beats it.

      • SB

        SB 4:07 pm on May 1, 2015 25 days ago

        I don’t run the numbers myself, there are a couple of sites that calculate it:

        The market wind and the apple watch taptic engine supply issue seemed enough to beat the earnings news.


    Nicu 2:07 pm on April 28, 2015 - 28 days ago


    sold short May 22 $130 P @ $3.5 – against about a third of my cash, say that is a lot (much smaller than lots in other posts / trades)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:14 pm on May 18, 2015 8 days ago

      rolled to short Jun 5 $129 P for 60c credit

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:36 pm on May 22, 2015 4 days ago

      bought to close @ 71c – profit net of fees, $3.30

  • 4

    Richard 11:19 am on April 25, 2015 - 31 days ago

    For decades as a Mac fanatic I’ve stuck with Mac email and web apps, but no more. Mail was giving me huge problems. For my machine at work, the tech installed microsoft outlook. I discovered that it is truly horrible. I did a web search and installed something called Postbox which seems pretty good. On my home laptop, on which I am writing this post, my wife recommended Thunderbird, and I’ve just got it going and it seems pretty good. My investment question is: why on earth does Apple not provide the best software for basics such as mail and web?

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 9:10 pm on April 25, 2015 30 days ago

      What’s wrong with Mail? What are you trying to do?

      I suppose Apple tries to offer the best software for basics that meets most people’s needs and is sustainably supportable by them [Apple.] Mail seems to meet my needs well, but for many other tasks I use software other than what comes free with my Mac.

      My big gripe over the last year is Apple’s ditching of Aperture. I see nothing else out there that I really like, so far. Even some rather expensive solutions seem inadequate for me (and I’m just not into Adobe’s very expensive new subscription schemes.) Then theres the whole problem with Jony Ive designing the OS . . .

      • henrystar

        Richard 9:37 pm on April 25, 2015 30 days ago

        It may be my own fault. I run ancient versions because I still must do fortran, and they do not keep up. Postbox has problems. Thunderbird seems to be good. Anyway, I’m getting old and sort of falling apart. Sigh!

        • SB

          SB 5:22 pm on April 27, 2015 29 days ago

          On my work machine, I refuse to upgrade and still run Eudora on OS 10.5.8 because I just can’t give up Eudora’s search on my 15+ years of work related messages.

          Those more modern folks around here who won’t touch Outlook tend to go with Thunderbird.

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 11:47 pm on April 26, 2015 29 days ago

        I am at the stage where I am like Apple please don’t fuck it up some more. (Am still on iOS 6 on all of my mobile devices as I can’t stand that new stuff so much). I used to be like what new exciting is around the corner. I really looked forward to it. Not anymore. They will do financially good for a while (so did the Microsoft) but we are getting into this Sculley/Amelio stage again.

  • 2

    Nicu 8:23 am on April 21, 2015 - 35 days ago

    You will excuse me that I will not try to guess revenue, EPS etc. with a spreadsheet this time. There are several reasons, I’m lazy, it’s not necessarily more accurate if you put up a spreadsheet and it may not matter that much. By that I mean that cash return program and the Watch will be at least as important. About the Watch, I think they will not give any numbers, but sales will be visible in the next quarter revenue and GM guidance.

    About earnings for FQ2 (CQ1), numbers from usage data aggregators suggest to me about 61.5M iPhones sold. Some analysts think they will reduce channel inventory, I think it will be up or at least flat. Usage data is not homogenous with Q1, it’s not so much a novelty now, and sales are more skewed toward Asia, not sure how usage data is collected there. So I think iPhone will be in the 60M to 65M range, implying revenue around $60B (other revenue like iPad will be down too). They have guided GM a bit up so I’ll say 39-40%, which a quick estimate will give EPS of about $2.30 to $2.40, also depending of how many extra shares they have bought back.

    I think the 3 good news (earnings, more cash return, very good guidance) have reasonable chance to unlock the stock from the $120-$130 range towards the upside. Of course, as they say, if you want to see if god(s) have a sense of humour, make a plan!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:30 pm on April 27, 2015 28 days ago

      Yess !!!

      61.2M iPhones, EPS $2.33

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:31 pm on April 27, 2015 28 days ago

      $130B -> $200B capital return program

  • piero

    piero 3:25 pm on April 13, 2015 - 43 days ago

    I’ve just red the entire article, and I’m astonished not because I didn’t suspect but by the huge implication in and behind it.
    You remember my post on the “piggy banker” during the “cold war” of 2011/12, but reality is always “better” and wider than what you think!!
    So please read the article, check the sources and the links, and make your own idea on how does it mean for Mr.Schmidt words like competition, free market, companies and policies. Then, next time think twice on investing on him and his company.
    And do not forget the FUD machine that started 3 years ago against the biggest company quoted in US…

  • 6

    JPWatkins 4:52 am on April 9, 2015 - 47 days ago

    This is pretty cool.
    • $999
    • Gimbaled 60 frames per second 1080P HD camera
    • Hovering feature works indoors or out
    • Negligible video latency
    • Max flight time of 23 minutes
    • Flys op to 35 mph (57 kmph)
    • Appears to be hacker friendly

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 4:53 am on April 9, 2015 47 days ago

      Sorry I must have done something wrong. I wanted this picture to appear:

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 6:35 pm on April 9, 2015 46 days ago

        Extra ” in IMG tag. Fixed.

        • JPWatkins

          JPWatkins 7:39 pm on April 20, 2015 35 days ago

          Thanks :-)

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 6:37 pm on April 9, 2015 46 days ago

      Looks great. Not sure about glare on iPad screen on sunny day outside.

    • piero

      piero 3:26 pm on April 13, 2015 43 days ago

      I want one!!

      • JPWatkins

        JPWatkins 7:53 pm on April 20, 2015 35 days ago

        Me too! (Although I have no idea what I would do with it.)
        I suppose it would be most useful for underhanded surveillance or taking “impossible” cinematography shots, neither of which I really need.
        Roof inspection? Too bad I sold my house.
        In all honestly, I could probably find more use for a flexible borescope.

compose new post
next post/next comment
previous post/previous comment
show/hide comments
go to top
go to login
show/hide help