• 1

    conshmillo 10:30 pm on March 3, 2015 - 2 days ago

    Love the following paragraph from the article:

    “When I look at the Apple Watch, I’m not seeing an empathetic creation for the masses. I’m seeing what the New Yorker’s more than 16,000-word story on Jonathan Ive would only hint at—that Apple may have built out the watch to satisfy the urges of a designer who has become more obsessed with Bentleys and Rolexes than making attractive, functional technology that will actually make life better for the 99%.”

    Can’t stand that buffoon. It is becoming increasingly clear how many of the good design decision were due to Steve Job’s censorship.


    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 5:22 am on March 4, 2015 2 days ago

      While there’s a lot of truth in what you say about JI, it also seems a bit harsh. Like all designers, he’s best when he is unleashed to imagine and create, but at some point he must be tied down and constrained so as to actually produce.
      Same as it ever was.

      RE the Awatch, I have always said that minimum specs for a successful product are: 1.) It must be waterproof, 2.) It must run for a week. Beyond that there are many chances to fail, but it will be a flop until 1 and 2 are satisfied.

  • 4

    Richard 7:10 pm on February 23, 2015 - 10 days ago

    I’ve only bought single stocks (i.e. not mutual funds) twice in my life, both times AAPL. My wife’s philosophy of stocks is: a) if it goes up, sell it immediately because it might go down, b) if it goes down, hold on forever. (I gather this is a fairly common philosophy, and helps explain why there are so many poor people in the world.) Anyway, she was pressuring me to finally sell some, to re-do our bathrooms. So I sold my accumulated dividends – I still have all my originally-bought shares. If AAPL goes down, I can glare at my wife. If AAPL goes up, I can glare at my wife. What’s not to like? (I love her dearly!)

    • SB

      SB 7:58 pm on February 23, 2015 10 days ago

      I’ve been looking at it as well, selling some or all of my AAPL to lock in gains, and then re-entering on a pullback by purchasing calls or selling puts. I lose dividends, but it has been on a really nice run this month. Hard to do it with no sign of a let up, though. Something goosed it today as well, even in a down market.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 11:13 pm on February 23, 2015 10 days ago

      I wonder if today’s pop was Apple car related. I could not find any news. But rumor mill is in high gear.

    • Senator Gronk

      Senator Gronk 4:59 am on February 24, 2015 10 days ago

      Apple probably gained more today than they’ll make on car sales in the next 5 years… ; )

      Even though I’m bullish on the idea of the Apple Car, I have to say, what’s happening right now is ridiculous, and could be dangerous. Once Detroit starts swinging back and Elon Musk scores a home run on something, it could very well cause a mass exodus after the build up when Apple doesn’t let anything else leak.

      To that end, if this run up crosses $150 I’ll be hard pressed not to pull out and dump 50% of my position. It’s been a long ride for me. I’d definitely like to lock in the profits and pare it back to my principle. I’ll be happy to watch it climb back to $500 even at the smaller holding. Not that I wouldn’t jump back in of course…

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 11:13 pm on February 27, 2015 6 days ago

      Seems to me the rise is justified by the slow realization that the iPhone 6 series has been kicking Samsung’s ass.The car thing is far too speculative to move the needle at this point.
      On the other hand the market never seems to treat Apple sensibly, so perhaps the rise is mostly emotional.

  • 6

    Richard 9:11 pm on February 20, 2015 - 13 days ago

    Hope they don’t call it the Road Apple!

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 8:53 pm on February 21, 2015 12 days ago

      I am starting to think it is just a marketing plot. Designed to keep Apple affectionados on their toes. It gives Apple 6 years of secrets and rumors. What is it that is Apple working on secretly? Is it real? How is that car going to look? Will it fly? What companies is Apple going to acquire? What is stock going to do? No matter what the actual questions will be, end result is attention on Apple.

    • henrystar

      Richard 3:52 pm on February 22, 2015 12 days ago

      I agree; It is the same kind of stuff that google does, and it draws in the brainless investors. I guess that is good for holders of AAPL…

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 11:05 am on February 23, 2015 11 days ago

      • Senator Gronk

        Senator Gronk 2:25 pm on February 23, 2015 11 days ago

        “But the name of this column is “Strength in Numbers” because I try to ensure any narrative is rooted in hard facts instead of a land full of gumdrops and puppy dogs.” And then he proceeds to gumdrop and puppy dog around a couple of obvious numbers.

        I have no idea if the Apple Car is real, or that we have an understanding of what they’re actually doing. But articles like this doing nothing more than cement the prospect of an Apple Car in my mind. That people would so doggedly criticize Apple over a rumor, tells me that Apple is on to something.

        If electronic consumer products is Apple’s game, then yes, they are most likely out of their league. If disrupting the sleepy consumer marketplace with Brave New Products is their game, then making a car might be a stroke of brilliance.

        And let’s not forget, after all, that Samsung has a shipyard.

      • Senator Gronk

        Senator Gronk 6:52 pm on February 23, 2015 10 days ago

        To that end, a run down on possible team members points to a car, or vehicle some sort certainly. My guess is that they offered Elon Musk an elastic bag of gold that could stretch and fill when he pleased and he turned them down to finish what he’s started. Fair. But they’ll clearly steal what they can’t buy. Fairplay, as they say.

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 6:19 am on February 25, 2015 9 days ago

      I don’t claim to know what Apple is doing, but I’m amused by the pundits, and more importantly the car executives, who dismiss the idea of Apple getting into cars.

      As I have pointed out on Apple Insider, a Typical car has a lot of computing power and use about 1 million lines of code. Some cars use as many as 2 million lines of code. Modern electric cars have a lot more computing power and use over 10 million lines of code.

      Computers and code are not Detroit’s expertise. Neither is solid state electronics. Apple is totally expert in computer engineering and coding and their UI & UX work is miles ahead of Detroit et al. Apple has shown an ability to acquire whatever expertise they want (examples, retailing architecture, building construction, servers, solar, and you name it in manufacturing.) Meanwhile Detroit et al have steadily outsourced tons of their design work (interior and component, mostly) so whole areas of expertise are now easily obtained by anyone willing to pay for them.

      Conclusion: Apple could hand current car manufactures their asses if they decided to [at least in certain segments, which knowing Apple will be the sweet, low hanging, profitable, fruit segment of the car market.]

      Tesla is an object lesson that proves the plausibility of Apple as a car manufacturer—growing from nothing to a force to be reckoned with in only a few years. Let’s face it Apple has far more expertise and resources at hand than Tesla has had. I’d love to see Apple & Tesla work together on cars or at least go into some sort of “coopetition” on them, but I’m not sure that’s either company’s style.

  • Nicu 3:19 pm on February 20, 2015 - 14 days ago


    MaxPain – $118 – $242.34M, $120 – 246.88M (almost flat), $125 – $370.1M, $128 – $487.38M

    There is some game to play, but Greece could make it go either way in a big way (which is good for very short term option jockeys (/ junkies?) like me)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:48 pm on February 20, 2015 14 days ago

      in $127 P @ 2c (order not completely filled, but already a good bunch)

      • Nicu

        Nicu 6:04 pm on February 20, 2015 13 days ago


    • SB

      SB 7:59 pm on February 20, 2015 13 days ago

      some fascinating price action around 14:55. Last 100 trades almost all at one of two price points – $129.04 and $129.25xx, where xx is a fraction.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:14 pm on February 20, 2015 13 days ago

      deal with Greece, so MaxPain doesn’t matter anymore

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 9:19 pm on February 20, 2015 13 days ago

      It again went toward the strongest peak ($130) rather than toward the median of peaks ($118). If this is strong enough repetitive pattern we have a game here.

  • conshmillo 10:09 pm on February 18, 2015 - 15 days ago


    Zillow up 16.3% today. Makes me even madder because as I said had I know they will announce on Friday after hours I would own this week’s options.

  • henrystar

    Richard 8:56 pm on February 17, 2015 - 16 days ago

  • Nicu 3:44 pm on February 17, 2015 - 17 days ago



  • Nicu 10:27 am on February 16, 2015 - 18 days ago


    Our second daughter, Clara Simona, was born this morning. Everybody’s fine :D

    My adrenalin is calming down just now, making place for sweet and gentle happiness …

    • Senator Gronk

      Senator Gronk 5:19 pm on February 16, 2015 18 days ago

      Congratulations! We have #2 in the oven right now, don’t know if it’s another boy or (hopefully) a girl. Having kids is the very definition of exciting, that is, = Σ(hope+fear+…+emotion_n). ; )

      • Nicu

        Nicu 7:27 pm on February 16, 2015 17 days ago

        Thanks ;)

        Do you mean )^n instead of _n) ?

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 11:10 pm on February 16, 2015 17 days ago

      Whoa! Congratulations.
      I didn’t realize you two were expecting. My Mom will be glad to hear it. Please pass on our good wishes to R. (& E.)

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 2:15 am on February 17, 2015 17 days ago

      congrats to both of you!

    • SB

      SB 6:49 pm on February 17, 2015 16 days ago

      Congrats, Nicu. Having 2 girls myself – happiness, yes, sweet, absolutely yes, gentle …. not so much.

    • Rick-o

      Rick-o 7:45 pm on February 17, 2015 16 days ago


    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:38 pm on February 17, 2015 16 days ago

      Thank you all!

  • 8

    conshmillo 11:57 pm on February 13, 2015 - 20 days ago

    Apple AAPL, +0.05% has several hundred employees working secretly toward creating an Apple-branded electric vehicle, according to people familiar with the matter. They said the project, code-named “Titan,” has an initial design of a vehicle that resembles a minivan, one of these people said.


    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:04 am on February 14, 2015 20 days ago

      and as soon as you say electric car, your stock starts climbing to the sky ;)

    • henrystar

      Richard 11:47 am on February 15, 2015 19 days ago

      I’m under some pressure from my wife to finally sell some of my AAPL.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 12:35 pm on February 15, 2015 19 days ago

        Selling some here it’s not such a bad idea. But maybe not all, as this year will clear many questions, like did iPhone kill Android (in profits, present and future, what serious investor cares about market share?), can they still have new blockbusters, and definitely erase Steve’s shadow over Apple. Should there be no major economic or other shock, AAPL should perform nicely this year :)

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 4:08 am on February 16, 2015 18 days ago

        Maybe it’s a good time to convert to LEAPS. You get some cash yet you can still participate in AAPL’s moves for less.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 2:20 am on February 17, 2015 17 days ago

      If Apple is indeed entering car business (not just some car related computer technology) I hope there is a big sell-off. Because to me that would mean they lost their marbles and focus. It would be diversification not within their industry but completely new category. Maybe Jonny decided he wants to have a pink dashboards so he convinced Cook to go into car business.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 6:34 am on February 17, 2015 17 days ago


    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 2:43 am on February 20, 2015 14 days ago

      From comments elsewhere: “Who can afford a new car every two years?” :-)

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 3:00 am on February 20, 2015 14 days ago

      btw. Remember that I was predicting that there are going to be plenty of electric vehicle startups 5 years ago (electric bikes are popping all over already). It will be like when personal computers came about. They’ll be everywhere. I really believe that age of big three is over. With robotization and automation, new materials, open source software, open source electronics it is not as difficult to produce cars as it used to be. I just didn’t expect Apple to go that direction. And if it will look anything like Apple watch then I for sure don’t want any (I really dislike the idea of Apple building cars). Look at the Google’s autonomous car. One would think they’re joking. As for Jony as a car designer I really don’t think he has what it takes to design a beautiful car. Maybe if you want a car that looks like mac mini with four wheels attached to it, he has a car for you.

  • Nicu 7:30 pm on February 13, 2015 - 20 days ago


    Max Pain $121 – $53.1M total options value as of yesterday’s close (lots of options C & P trades at $125-$127 strikes today), $125 – $76.8M, $126 – $91.1M

    I might try another puts bet ;)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:51 pm on February 13, 2015 20 days ago

      partial (89%) order filled for Feb 13 $125 C @ 3c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 7:52 pm on February 13, 2015 20 days ago

        completed, call those 3 lots

      • Nicu

        Nicu 7:58 pm on February 13, 2015 20 days ago

        + 5 lots @ 2c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:00 pm on February 13, 2015 20 days ago

      in 1 lot Feb 13 $126 P @ 10c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:08 pm on February 13, 2015 20 days ago

        + 1 lot @ 4c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:25 pm on February 13, 2015 20 days ago

      doesn’t seem to work this time; orders to sell for nice profits in place, if miracle … otherwise will let them fade (expire)

      but, as a friend says about lateral parking, it has to look bad at first to be good, you never know

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 8:39 pm on February 13, 2015 20 days ago

        I am still not sure whether closest OI peak doesn’t work better than actual Max Pain which is just a median. Closest peak would be 107 in this case.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:50 pm on February 13, 2015 20 days ago

      in 1.2 lots of $127 P @ 4c – crazy, I know :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:00 pm on February 13, 2015 20 days ago

      all expired

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