I just thought I would create one post for earnings day so we can keep it together until it’s out.
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I just thought I would create one post for earnings day so we can keep it together until it’s out.
conshmillo 6:05 pm on July 19, 2010 566 days ago Reply
IBM, TXN got punched after hours on revenues. Goldman Sachs reports at 08:00 am ET. Hope it will set the day in the right direction.
conshmillo 1:57 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Apple approaching 253.00 resistance. I hope we can beat it before the close.
conshmillo 2:05 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
MarketWatch has article on front page titled “IBM, TI, Apple head up broad slate of tech losses”. Whaaa? Apple didn’t report earnings yet dicky doodle.
nolavabo 3:32 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
In my school of trading, if you have resistance at 100, the best place is to stop is 99.98, without ever going over 100. This is described as “gathering energy” to “jump” over resistance. Going over and coming back down again is described as “failing” to get over.
252-253 seems to be an interesting zone of support/resistance. Once it “crosses the road”, it spends a bit of time there. From my point of view, closing right inside this zone would be the best outcome.
Nicu 4:30 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
EPS $3.51
Nicu 4:31 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
3.47M Macs
Nicu 4:31 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
guidance $3.44
Nicu 4:31 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
8.4M iPhones
Nicu 4:32 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
9.41M iPods, 3.27M iPads
Nicu 4:33 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
AAPL around $260
conshmillo 4:34 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Bingo!
Nicu 4:34 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
guidance $18B rev
conshmillo 4:37 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Watch 263 resistance, could pop higher there.
conshmillo 4:41 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Blogger consensus definitely closer than street. Nicu, yours would be even better. But you can use the result to gauge your optimism. Nice job!
Nicu 4:45 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
@conshmillo
yep, too bullish again (last quarter I forecasted lower than the actual EPS)
I was wrong on iPhones, the most profitable items, and it makes a huge difference, I’ll analyze all numbers when they became available
conshmillo 4:42 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
You’ve seen how it bounced of 263? I hope it tries again.
conshmillo 4:45 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
I am very satisfied. Not only because it means nice gains for me, but also I was so tired of that negative hysterical talk we heard for last month about Apple. I mean it is just a company, and it is just a phone, but for me it was more about fairness and how mass hysteria can make people crazy and lose their judgement.
nolavabo 4:47 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
You’ll see all the doomsayers tomorrow focus on iPod sales being down 8%. Let’s see – 700,000 less iPods sold, with 8.4 million iPhones going out. Seems like a great trade, but it’s all you’ll hear tomorrow.
Oh, and margins being down to *only* 39.1%. They’ll conveniently forget that it beat Apple’s own guidance of 38% from last earnings report.
nolavabo 4:49 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Oh, I forgot. High fives all around. I’m in Aug 240 and 250 calls
Nicu, Apple is selling iPhones as fast as they can make them. This is not a demand issue, but a supply bottleneck. However, unlike other companies, a waiting customer is not a lost customer. The same is not true for HTC, as people will just buy a Droid etc. Almost certainly, this is where you were overly bullish. But as I said above, this demand will just rollover to the next quarter.
mikeinmontreal 5:14 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Whhhheeewwww!!….what a relief….I haven’t read anything yet, but I see that it is up in AH….I think that next earnings will be the big one….huge iPhone and iPad impact…and the iPod Touch revision will be huge for the Xmas quarter….Facetime, new processor, maybe rear camera with iMovie potential and best of all….no antenna
Oh yeah…High fives all around…
Ahhnold 11:05 pm on July 20, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Hey everybody. Love this forum compared to google.
I have some Aug calls as well and I’m trying to decide my strategy when to sell. Looking at historical prices, it looks like Apple opened high the day after earnings (July 22nd 2009) and then continued to gain for the next month. However, in other past earnings, I vaguely remember times when the stock dropped dramatically the day after earnings release and then gaining significantly a few days later. I can’t find the historical data for this
What are your thoughts?
conshmillo 12:10 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
@ahhnold
Welcome Ahhnold. Glad you like it.
I will be unloading some of my August calls in next 2 days. These are still options and expiration is close. Swap for higher strike price SEP or OCT is good option too. I think we are in different situation today than during previous earnings as last month’s FUD campaign compressed AAPL price. I think we have room to go higher and there shouldn’t be such a volatility crush tomorrow. I want to see in the morning 263 resistance cracked. In extended trading hours we bounced right off it. If we can crack it we could see additional $5+ pop on top of it. I am expecting Europe and Asia to get higher on Apple news and that should help futures to get higher and in turn we should have strong open tomorrow. Check my Weekly Events post. My impression in general is that markets are turning around and we are at foothills of uptrend. I keep hearing market media heads yapping about double dip recession but as for market, by looking at TA I see markets going higher not lower. At least till earnings are over.
Nicu 9:23 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
@conshmillo
$263 poped and looking good
nolavabo 5:16 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Over the last 4 years, AAPL gapped up the day after open 96% of the time. It then sold off 65% of the time the same day. The other 35% of the time it ran higher during the day. I read an article about it yesterday, but can’t find it now. 75% of the time it closed higher 2 days after earnings.
However, the only 100% observation that can be made is this; earnings has never changed a pre-existing trend. The difficulty with this earnings is that arguments can be made for both an up and down trend existing before yesterday.
Zee 5:31 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
i hoped we’d of cleared 263 in AH. 261 could have been the end of the rolling foothills. hmm.
e.r. mentioned larger asian/euro/jap sales escalating for next qt’s $18 bil. guidance. Apple said there’re mystery items in the pipeline. what? cuz gm were lowered.
+~=>What sept/oct strike prices looks interesting to you guys?
Z.
mikeinmontreal 6:51 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Take some profits is all I can say….remember $279….I’m still kicking myself….my Oct 270s will be gone sometime today…some of my higher strike price Jan 11s will be gone sometime today or tomorrow..holding on to my Oct 240/250s, lower strike price Jan 11s (forget which I have) and all my Jan 12 options…not touching August or September for now…selling the shares I have as well….I need cash for dips….still spooked since the month of May….
Zee 7:17 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Yeah good thanx Mike. I’m going to take my dog for a walk now. Grab a coffee and see my neighbor. Man is he old. Last night I left a copy of Nicu’s ER along w WS consensus numbers for Apple on his desk. Then the last thing he said to me before leaving was, “Buy me some sour cream if they still have some.” When I do he lets me keep the penny. $2.09. rotflmao
Nicu 9:49 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
different ball game when 10M shares are exchanged in less than 20 minutes
we have to fight that resistance again
conshmillo 10:06 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Market is a bit freaky because of Bernanke.
conshmillo 10:18 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Take a note of this, as it seems there still is a huge volatility crush:
My bull call ATM AUG spreads (250/260) are doing 150% better than my naked $280 OTM AUG calls, while their entry price was almost identical. For every 2 naked OTM 280 AUG 10 calls, you can buy roughly 1 250/260 AUG 10 ATM bull call spread. On 1:1 basis difference is actually 300%!!!
conshmillo 10:30 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
AAPL is still at this moment heavily sold at the open. A lot of unloading. In next 15 minutes we should get a bullish cross on 15 min intraday stochastic and hopefully shake the open selloff. On dailies AAPL got at bullish cross on MACD. This should go higher.
nolavabo 10:42 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
If the market can stay up, I’d agree that AAPL will run for a bit. However, I see this market rally as a headfake, as there is no supporting volume. I’m picking up calls in QID and SDS right now.
Last earnings, AAPL ran for 4 days, culminating in a new all-time high. 8 days later was the flash crash, and AAPL touched $200 again. I’m not saying this will happen again, just saying to keep your stops tight.
nolavabo 10:43 am on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Sold all my calls at open. Looks like the right move now. I will follow this closely and perhaps re-enter with weekly calls if she shows some strength.
Yes, AAPL has weekly options now!
Ahhnold 12:51 pm on July 21, 2010 565 days ago Reply
Is it the selling pressure that is keeping the call options price down? You would think the prices would be more considering a $7 dollar increase in the stock price but as of right now aug 260′s are up only 17%, aug 270′s at 10% and aug 280′s at -5%!
Nicu 2:19 pm on July 21, 2010 564 days ago Reply
IV drop (implied volatility crush after the news, bing it if you don’t what is
)
conshmillo 2:47 pm on July 21, 2010 564 days ago Reply
Thanks for nothing Bernanke.
nolavabo 3:45 pm on July 21, 2010 564 days ago Reply
Nice, Nicu. Bing it.
LOL.
mikeinmontreal 5:19 pm on July 21, 2010 564 days ago Reply
Good move in the AM, nolavabo……it dropped so quickly at the open, I wasn’t sure what to do…waited too long for the pop that never came…looks like we’re in for a dead period of about 6 weeks where we live and die by market conditions before hopefully a September iPod event….hopefully the rumor mill will start ramping about the next iPod Touch, iMac, AppleTV and that those iPad and iPhone orders keep getting filled and selling out…
mikeinmontreal 5:36 pm on July 21, 2010 564 days ago Reply
Nicu, a solid first attempt on the bloggers vs. analysts:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/21/earnings-smackdown-the-best-and-worst-apple-analysts/
Nicu 6:34 pm on July 21, 2010 564 days ago Reply
@mikeinmontreal
thanks for you encouragements, I was rather disappointed as usually I am much better than consensus (now just a bit closer) and even better than some “independents”, now the worst
I’ll try harder in 3 months
Nicu 4:46 am on July 22, 2010 564 days ago Reply
where is the usual avalanche of upgrades when you need it ?
Nicu 4:52 am on July 22, 2010 564 days ago Reply
oh, sorry, I forgot, they upgrade targets only when the share price forces them by rendering them ridiculous, not when amazing results make them look like blind squirrels
nolavabo 9:23 am on July 22, 2010 564 days ago Reply
Yes, Nicu, damn fine work on EPS. While you were over, the deviation from the real result was less than the vast majority of pros.
Nicu 10:05 am on July 22, 2010 564 days ago Reply
@nolavabo
the only thing I’m proud about my estimates are ASPs, I almost nailed them all :
Desktops – Error 2.3%
Laptops – 2.4%
iPod – 2%
iPad – 0.7%
iPhone – 0%
Technically, the iPad and iPhone ASPs contain some accessories, but it is easier to compute if you include it in the price. (Apple only gives units and revenue in their report also)
I uploaded the error report here
http://mihalache.free.fr/Apple/EPS/EPS_Err_Q3_10.pdf
JPWatkins 12:59 pm on July 22, 2010 564 days ago Reply
Nice job Nico. Excellent work.
(sorry for the late kudos.)
Birra 2:07 pm on July 22, 2010 563 days ago Reply
Hey, JPW, how did you do with sell high – buy low. Actually I’m serious and curious. Thanks and I still hope you take care of that cat.