Hi Consch & everyone …
Just joined today, not in daily trading but still sticking with my lack-lustered “swing trading” in an ever LONGER way … lol …
It is written on all the walls, but no one knows which way…
At this stage it just boils down to pure gut feeling, and a tiny little TA combined with some common sense …
Just came to share my own gut feeling for whatever it is worth …
If AAPL does not break down tomorrow, the chances are greater that it will break UP by Thursday as the 20 day MA (257.71) crosses over the 50 day MA (258.58)… This break appears to be imminent because the BB bandwidth has hit a bottom and has relatively started to rise … The only positive sign today is that 20 MA acted as a solid support for a second time over the last 3 days trading……
It is as if, whatever forces govern AAPL have been squeezing as many shares as possible below 260… Volume has dropped to VERY LOW levels… The selling pressure is waning, so is the buying pressure that gets boosted at the MA 20 ,the break is becoming more probable and nearer … As nicu pointed out : even institutions holdings have dropped by a couple of %… Also the Fudding is losing steam… No more news coming out that could be distorted… It may take REAL bad news from Apple to keep that momentum going…
As for the common sense : Given AAPL’s fundamentals viz the last 2 earnings, it ought to be trading above 280 even at a Dow level of about 10400 , while it is close to 10700 and may rise to 10900 as the VIX drops on lower fears of a WW double dip…
Stochastic wise it is slightly oversold at about 42%, RSI has hit again a low of 50% … I view both as slightly positives, the slightly negative one is the MACD on the daily …
Hey consh ! … What does your crystal ball tells you tonight ?
conshmillo 11:53 pm on August 10, 2010 544 days ago Reply
Hey, Caruso. So good to see you here! I look forward to your elaborate posts! I try to give my take on weekly basis. Check my “This week’s events” post…
http://www.traderhood.com/2010/08/09/this-week’s-events-aug9-aug13/
mikeinmontreal 7:05 am on August 11, 2010 544 days ago Reply
Welcome to the Hood, Caruso. Everyone gets along here in this Matt-free, Fonz-free and Jay-free Hood.
caruso2323 12:11 pm on August 11, 2010 544 days ago Reply
@mikeinmontreal
Thanks Mike
caruso2323 8:14 pm on August 11, 2010 543 days ago Reply
@mikeinmontreal
Add to that list calan free … lol
caruso2323 12:10 pm on August 11, 2010 544 days ago Reply
I posted a long one , but lost it due to my inexperience with the site …
I will summarize my thoughts :
1) 250 is IT … Not going to 245 (Unless Double Dip) …
2) A higher probability of Double dip would bring it down to the 220-230 range well below 245
3) I expect we get back above 253.20 by 2:30 PM as shorts start covering (orby 2:45)
4) This is a Shake-Out at low volume more than anything else …
5) Hopefully we get good guidance from CSCO’s Chamber tonight after close
6) it would be nice if we could get back to the 257-262 with some small pieces of news from Apple
7) Any indications that AAPL is managing a ramp up of iP’4s along with new Retina displays could reverse COMPLETELY this break down into a break out well beyond 266
caruso2323 1:04 pm on August 11, 2010 544 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
Fast Stochastics on the daily is at GROUND ZERO ! and the Slow Stochastic has bottomed out relative to its trend…
Any short below 250 is burned money ! …
Those shorts below 250.30 will give us a modest bounce back above 250.60 … JMHO
conshmillo 1:27 pm on August 11, 2010 543 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
what setup do you have on your slow stochastic? because on daily stochastic, %K (fast line) on AAPL is at %42.2 right now, so that’s only half way through. Worse DIA’s slow stoch downswing just started today, it’s at 76.03% right now. My setup for stochastic on dailies is:
K = 5, D =3
Or did you mean intraday?
caruso2323 8:28 am on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
This mildly good news about the iP4′s improved availability should give AAPL good support around 250 :
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/08/12/iphone_4_remains_sold_out_at_half_of_apple_us_retail_stores.html
Apple appears to be half way in ramping up its iP4 production … That is great compared to the situation that prevailed in the July 11 – July 20 (Earning day) as 0 out of 20 stores were “in stock”…
caruso2323 3:08 pm on August 11, 2010 543 days ago Reply
I meant intra-day …
Is there a way to post pics on your site consh ?
conshmillo 7:59 pm on August 12, 2010 542 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
“Is there a way to post pics on your site consh ?”
pictures are half way done, but it still needs some work on the upload side. auto-resizing, ajax and such.
caruso2323 5:48 pm on August 11, 2010 543 days ago Reply
My intra-day “worst case” scenario was 250 …
The “worst-Case” scenario is 244 on its corresponding trend-line, AH AAPL is down to 246 something with volume of 300K , a relatively light AH on days of major moves such as today …
Yet as some distort the US deficit into GDP and start projecting a GDP revision drop of the freshly downward revised 3.2 % GDP to 2.4% … The FUD goes on … As if someones dream to see the good old days of March 2009 when a DEPRESSION scenario … So little has changed in 18 months ! … lol
Yet another perspective could have been travelling back through time, with all the measures that HAVE BEEN taken to-date way back in MARCH 2008 some six months before the Lehman debacle , even a 1.3% GDP growth would have been described as a very strong SOFT LANDING… I am guessing now but Corporations would have had 33% less cash reserves , and the unemployment at less than the current 9.5% ,abd yet with the SAME SPENDING LEVEL, and SAME DEFICIT …
Only fear and greed governs the stock market … The media is just a pure whore !
Nicu 8:49 am on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
when is the last time you predicted AAPL to go lower, even slightly ?
caruso2323 10:48 am on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
@nicu
When I posted this the day before last night, I really did not know which way AAPL would go… Unlike you nicu I don’t play options !… My timing is too lousy, I am just too rational, too greedy to take profits gradually as AAPL rises … You know the “I coulda, woulda… shoulda”…
I manage my portfolio based on Reward to Risk … The reward is AAPL shoots up to 290 even if Dow is at 10,400 , the risk was for it to drop to 250… So as AAPL traded at 260 the reward to risk looked like 30/10 … Just too attractive … I did not expect the China bad news the day after…
caruso2323 10:25 am on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
lol … You may note that I gave two scenarios in my original post with a break down the same day …
I can’t help it nicu being bullish about AAPL, and I DID not sell when Apple was still flirting with 260… So I leaned towards the Break UP scenario which I still believe will happen… All it takes is a PR from Apple about the 5th million iPad or 6th million , and a 6th millions iPhones … This will catapult AAPL with a 10% rise in a single day !…
Mind you, last night I did suggest that there was potential downside to 244 … ! …
Nicu 10:31 am on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
hehe good, I am / was a hyper bull on AAPL but for a long time (earnings included) it was just following NASDAQ from below (<= % every day) … it may just be that AAPL is finally a small fish trying to fight the tide and eventually gets tired (talking about the share, not the company) and pushed back like everyone else
Nicu 10:48 am on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
stop dreaming about that +10% in one day, it may never happen again (except some huge earnings) even new products that equal the Mac in the first quarter of sales go meh when unveiled now – anything short of iTeleporter will be a sell on the news opportunity …
caruso2323 11:00 am on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
@nicu
You may be surprised by not losing money on your 280 calls !…
Remember the last time ? you ended up pleasantly surprised with those you kept ! …
I would just take one PR with a double 6 millions to make it …
Nicu 11:36 am on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
I only have $260 and $270 calls LOL and only 6.5 trading days left
caruso2323 12:18 pm on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
@nicu
I hope that you don’t lose on the $260 … 6.5 days is not too short for reaching it …
My charts suggests that we may hit 256 today, could be doable if there is a snap back with Dow testing 10,420 resistance … This is 100 points away from the current 10,320… Maybe a small snap back could reverse the current -50 into a +50…
As for the 270 options , join me in my prayers to get that double 6 millions PR from Apple !… For your gains in the 260 and 270 options will compensate and surpass your losses with those 280 options that you sold !…
Nicu 12:38 pm on August 12, 2010 543 days ago
@caruso2323
when I sold $280 options, it was in fact to replace them by $270 options; so basically I paid something around $3 for $10 of maximum gains … betting a lot on the earnings + market reaction
caruso2323 1:02 pm on August 12, 2010 543 days ago
@nicu
My logic is this : If AAPL can hit 270 it will most likely trade in the 275-290 range …
So, I don’t understand the choice of 270 options unless their prices are significantly cheaper than 280 options… What factors do you consider when choosing between 280 Vs 270 besides the probability of AAPL trading at these respective levels ?
GotWake 11:21 am on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
I was getting a little worried about the supply issue. I stopped by my Local AT&T store yesterday and they had some 32 GBs in stock.
It’s easy being a hyper bull on this stock. There’s no reason that it shouldn’t be trading north of $300. Unfortunately, the market isn’t logical.
caruso2323 12:21 pm on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
@gotwake
while hoping that it is not among those 30 stores that Gene Munster covered 
Glad to hear that
Thanks for posting !…
Nicu 12:42 pm on August 12, 2010 543 days ago Reply
and the average on $270 calls is $.61 as it was more of a failed day trade recently than an investment – so basically $258 should be enough if we see it tomorrow at latest
Nicu 1:43 pm on August 12, 2010 542 days ago Reply
I assume you are talking about the Jan ’12 leaps from the other thread. As you have noticed, the strategy I proposed was to hold them at least one year and I hope that by this time $290 will be a distant memory.
Choosing between $270 and $280 calls is basically the price. The difference is about $4 and the maximum gain difference is $10 (if you sell the last day or if AAPL is so much higher than $400 that the time premium is negligible). So you pay upfront $4 for a maximum gain of $10 or net gain of $6, that is 1.5 times. In the scenario I proposed you get $85 net gain for a $35 investment which is almost 2.5 times. So if you believe it hits $400 at some point during the next 17 months, $280 calls are a better deal. If it goes even higher, it even better (2.5 becomes maybe 3 or 3.5 times but that 1.5 times is the maximum you can hope for).
By the same logic you my buy $290 calls or higher, but you have to consider the defensive also : in the worst case, what is the maximum of AAPL during 17 months ? if it’s lower then $315 you may actually lose money on the $280 calls and even more with $290 calls or higher
I hope it helps
But try to understand the play and do not get greedy with options if you decide to get in
caruso2323 9:07 pm on August 12, 2010 542 days ago Reply
Consch ,
I have a couple of suggestions for your Traderhood site :
1) To have a tutorial thread permanently opened for Options to such newbies as myself … Some thread that would assemble useful posts such as those volunteered by Nicu
2) To have threads dedicated either for Swing traders or Daily traders for AAPL and SPY
3) To get more of those great contributors who used to post on the Google Financial AAPL board
It is my intention to downscale my already down-scaled posting on the above mentioned board, as I will limit it to “broad messages” aimed at the media… I wish to restrain my posting here to purely sharing “Due Diligence” information…