Not really a fanboy here, but close enough – just very optimistic about AAPL.

If you go by this logic, last year it was almost flat from October to the beginning of April. Anyway, I don’t thinks there will be a strong correlation.

What I did with those $270 and $280 Jan ’11 calls is that I bought for about $3.3 a lower strike, instead of more time. I will try to “buy” more time if the stock goes up and they have good value to trade (for a later date with higher strike). I plan to do the converse (exchange back to $270 and $280 strikes) first, for about the double $6.6

It may not work if October earnings have the same effect as July earnings, but I doubt that without a double dip this is possible – earnings should be huge this time, I don’t expect Apple to do the same as Intel about those $18B of revenue, on the contrary, I think they will beat it nicely (~$20B).

I’m not a big fan of options that far out and out of the money. You are wasting your money on time premium and you have very little delta. I only buy in the money calls 1-2 months out, buy you have to be patient and time right. I destroyed the averages with this strategy

Everyone needs to form their own picture about where market is heading in immediate and longer term time frame. So I can not tell you to listen to my estimate or advice, because if market does something else as it might, you may feel you’ve got screwed by listening to someone’s else estimate. So I am not giving you advice, just my view.

In general I don’t try to figure out where markets will be a year from now because it is impossible. Too many conditions and influences will have much different values than they have today. I usually try to get picture of what market will do next week to next month. And to do that I use 90% of time no older data than 3 months. As far as I am concerned market didn’t exist 3 months ago. I don’t care what was happening in August 1970 because I don’t believe it has any correlation to what’s happening in August 2010. Only time I look at larger time frame (remaining 10%) is when 3 month charts are giving me 50/50 chances. Then I load 2 years/weekly chart and look where that is at.

One can never tell for sure what market/stock will do, and technical analysis is not an exercise in telling what they will do. Technical analysis is an exercise in finding out what ODDS (chances) of rise or fall are for studied period (tomorrow, next week, next month)

Why I am saying all of that. Right now I think we are at the bottom of the down curve and I think odds based on those TA are that starting next week we’ll see some upward motion. I think selling right now would be at the bottom of current curve. I have to say I could be completely wrong but I will base my own trading decisions next week based on assumption we are going higher. That is I will be buying very short term oversold dips in belief they will rise right back again. I think if you want to start unloading some options you should do it at the top of the curve. These are the times when non-technical crowd is all excited, not paying attention where in the cycle we are. MACD on dailies (3 months) is curving up nicely and I believe current bullish cross on stochastic will push MACD to it’s own bullish cross next week.

Also if you are into the longer term options take some time and have a look at bull call spreads. You can buy more for less and risk less! You can buy at the money bull call spread for the price of far OTM call of the same expiration date.

just my $20.00