With “The Event” coming this week, and a nice jump this morning, what are your feelings about us seeing 260 this week?
Looking at the recent trends, is the 260′s a good selling opportunity?
How will the broader market limit AAPL’s growth on good news?
hocm12 4:02 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
I don’t know, today was horrendously bad. The only way to reverse is to get some impressive iphone/ipad numbers Wednesday, but we may sell off after the event like usual.
i’m just sick of this lack of leadership and general confusion we are in.
conshmillo 5:12 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
@hocm12
“lack of leadership”???
Nicu 4:33 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
What leadership ? Political ? In the market ? At Apple ?
Apple has strong leadership and Apple leads strongly several markets. Dozens of wannabes try to emulate Apple products / services.
Arguably the US has strong leadership, but let’s not get into that.
In the market, the sentiment is the leader, in other words (almost) everybody goes with the flow (err, sorry, herd).
Don’t expect any of those to change anytime soon
sworoc 5:01 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
Thanks Nicu, good points.
I do think that events help remind people just how special Apple is in the industry. I remain hopeful that we will see the 260′s this week, though I’m not sure about the other two questions.
hocm12 5:29 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
lack of leadership from Washington and the Fed. to overhaul the health care and regulate wall street in the middle of a recession with millions of jobs being shed is moronic.
obviously aapl has great leadership. we need more leaders like SJ out there
Nicu 6:06 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
@hocm12
leadership means to be able to take difficult decisions looking at the broader (long term) situation, even if that hurts in the short term and goes against the general opinion
US was / is a third world country when looking at the health care and pensions (the latter – gambled and lost by wall street) – it’s just the strongest (wealthy) who survive; this is the same in the poorest countries on earth; big fat oil companies are heavily subsidized but not hospitals … take a moment to think about that !
should I start talking about the financial system ? which almost destroyed everything ? do you think we should let it as is ? the second time could be fatal !
conshmillo 6:23 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
@nicu
Looks like your kiddo is into yoga! (or is it you)
hocm12 6:52 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
anyway, back to AAPL, what do you guys make of the ipad being available in 24 hours?
Nicu 6:56 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago
@hocm12
a 6M quarter ?
can’t wait to see the same thing for the iPhone !
hocm12 7:09 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago
that would be terrific. that would mean getting a 6-7 million total ipad number wednesday. as for iphones, i’m counting on 10 million for the quarter if the supply allows it
Zee 12:36 am on August 31, 2010 524 days ago
@nicu
6M? I lost track of all the ideas tossed around on this thread? Assuming you’re referring to iPad sales? Regardless. The thing I wanted to add was when WS was projecting annual sales, I asked how much would Apple make for every million iPads sold, and I think it was Huberty who said, 1 billion. Is that close?
Nicu 6:55 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
@conshmillo
my daughter
conshmillo 6:21 pm on August 30, 2010 524 days ago Reply
@hocm12
unregulated wall street created the mess we are in, in case you were hibernating in November 2008.
To overhaul the healthcare that is bleeding incomes of regular families is bad how? Sky rocketing prices for health insurance are result of uninsured using services and not paying for them. That rises price for everyone. They are not going away. Mandatory insurance will require everyone chip in and those who can’t get assistance. In any case if you are worried just about your own, it will decrease your premiums, not increase them. I don’t see XLV suffering as a result of overhaul of health care. It is in par with where S&P 500 is. Since April 2010, S&P 500 is down -11.28%. XLV is down -12.00%. So no effect on industry but great benefits for end customers. Too bad public option didn’t pass. Premiums would be even lower as private insurance would have to match public option to stay competitive. Public option doesn’t carry 30% overhead that private insurance has to pay to it’s investors.
As for leadership in Washington. We have the most pragmatic president one can wish for. In situation we are in I am happy there is someone with cool head.
Nicu 3:47 am on August 31, 2010 524 days ago Reply
The ASP for iPads is about $650 so they make $2B in revenue for every 3M iPads sold. I would adventure to say that they have GM of at least 50% (worst case 40% and growing with volume). That means about $1B in “profits” before operating expenses and taxes. Let’s say that all these are about $400M so you get $600M profits or $.66 EPS for every 3M iPads or $.22 EPS for 1M
All this is very rough approximation but 6M this quarter would mean $1.3 in extra EPS and 9M (crazy hypothesis but I would not bet much against it) would mean $2 EPS only from iPads. Hopefully the market will get it this time, we are in the middle of the tipping point !