Hey everyone, am I missing something or is this huge? If they sold 100M iOS devices last quarter, and they have sold already 20M so far this quarter for a total of 120M , with still one month remaining and new Touches on the way, and with 230K new activations daily, and with more countries selling iPhone 4s in September, won’t the next quarter be an absolute monster quarter? Let’s say, 30M devices, 15M iPhones, 10M iPod Touches¬†and 5M iPads; wouldn’t that be insane?
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rastard 3:55 pm on September 2, 2010 521 days ago Reply
Yes.
chach17 4:22 pm on September 2, 2010 521 days ago Reply
Maybe I’m missing something, but doesn’t 30M devices seems a bit on the high side? 230,000 activations per day equates to just over 20M per quarter. 30M devices next quarter would be a 50% gain over the current quarter. Where did you get 20M as the number already sold this quarter – seems like that would be more like 330,000 activations per day.
rastard 5:17 pm on September 2, 2010 521 days ago Reply
@chach17
I think Mike already answered part of your question:
- new Touches on the way
- more countries selling iPhone 4s in September
And has broken down where he thinks the sales will come from:
- 30M devices, 15M iPhones, 10M iPod Touches and 5M iPads (I myself think those figures might be a bit optimistic, but who knows).
But yeah, your question about where he got “and they have sold already 20M so far this quarter… with still one month remaining” is one that I had as well. If Apple is activating at 230K a day, “so far this quarter” should be more like 14M. I’m also not clear where “If they sold 100M iOS devices last quarter” came from, or why we would add that together with this quarter’s to-date sales to get a “total of 120M”.
However, I agree with him that *if* Apple sells “30M devices: 15M iPhones, 10M iPod Touches and 5M iPads”, it would indeed be insane.
rastard 5:49 pm on September 2, 2010 521 days ago Reply
@rastard
To clarify my last post, I do recognize that Apple sold “100M iOS devices total [AS OF] last quarter” (and that was where Mike got the ‚Äútotal of 120M‚Äù from). I just wasn’t clear what the significance of that was supposed to be…
mikeinmontreal 6:55 pm on September 2, 2010 521 days ago Reply
I just meant that if they already actually sold 20M in 2 months, another 10M in September isn’t a stretch since more iPhone 4 availability and new Touches. Now I don’t know if the 230K daily activations are since Day 1 of the quarter. But we do know that from the end of last quarter till yesterday there were 120M iOS devices. One poster from another forum read it as 230K 3G activations (iPad 3G and iPhones). My guesstimate for unit sales was just that. A guess. I may be reading it totally wrong; none of the analysts seem interested.
Nicu 6:57 pm on September 2, 2010 521 days ago Reply
100M was achieved sometime in June but we do not know exactly when; I would suspect that 230k/d is what we have now and was increasing during the last 2 months (more countries for iP4 and better supply of iPads) so even if it continues to increase in September, the average would not be much better; multiply by 90 days and you get something a bit shy of 21M
12M iP4, 5M iPads and 4M iPods touch would be great that would mean about (very speculative) $5.7B in gross margin only from iOS devices – in numbers one could actually check, assuming those sales, I would say $20B in revenue and $4.8 EPS
I hope we get a little better than that
caruso2323 9:27 am on October 9, 2010 485 days ago Reply
My bet is on 11M iPhones (although I am starting to lean more towards 12M iP,s, but 8M iPodTouch), and 6M iPad’s… 20B + (Revenues) and about 4.75 EPS …
I think market’s reaction will be positive (7% rise over a week) perhaps WILD if Oppenheimer gives a BULLISH guidance as he did last quarter… Next quarter will be HUGE ! … I expect nothing less than 20M iPhones and 9M-10M iPads (Apple will surely boost iPad production over 3M/month) IMHO
mikeinmontreal 4:49 pm on October 9, 2010 484 days ago Reply
Nicu is the 2nd highest of the bloggers…Good Luck, Nicu….
Nicu 6:10 pm on October 9, 2010 484 days ago Reply
Thanks, if I am right or close, most of us win, as we are long AAPL