conshmillo has been pointing out the current overbought position of AAPL, which got “worse” today on an RSI basis (78 vs. 77.6 yesterday), and stochastics over 80, Williams %R at -10.3 (down from -1.5 yesterday). Now these indicators (stochastic and williams) have been “overbought” for almost 2 weeks, and Apple has, recently, been overbought for as much as a month (~2/26-~3/16, and ~3/22-~4/19) so this condition could go on for a while. Also note that all the trend indicators show strength in the trend (MACD, ADX, Williams Accum/Dist) which is counter to a reversal.
However today we got a doji candlestick pattern, indicating “indecision” with a long upper tail, indicating that selling pressure won the day after a long fight. Combined with the 2 strong white candles before it (Thursday and Monday) (Friday was triple witching, so somewhat anomalous, if you take out the first 10 minutes of trading, the stock did nothing), would indicate that a reversal may be near, much like the doji indicating reversal from a downtrend on 8/27 (that doji had a long lower tail following a relatively large black candle).
Tomorrow we’ll see.
(fully out of my long AAPL positions at 285 today, opened an October 270 put at $3)




caruso2323 11:58 am on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
it is still “worse” … lol
carlmuck 3:06 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
Yes, “worse and worse” my short is looking pretty wrong at the moment. We’ll see. I have made some money playing the intraday moves, takes some of the sting off of the current losses on the short (which I doubled down on when the put went to 2.40 so my average cost is 2.70). I’m pretty impressed with Apple today (even though its beating me up). Certainly trying to test 290 by the end of the week…
chach17 3:11 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
I think Friday is going to be profit taking day.. I’m holding on til then.
conshmillo 4:13 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
There must be some news we don’t know about but those that are a little bit more free than we are in these free markets do know about. RIMM was bucking the downtrend as well.
Let’s not forget weeklies are in the play. Maybe they are pinning it to 290. Although at these levels I would expect them to go for 280.
caruso2323 4:30 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@conshmillo
agree … we are kept in the dark… Just too odd … EXTREMELY FISHY
caruso2323 5:10 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
Guys … Connect the dots :
1) Look at to-day’s drop at MSFT
2) Look At AAPL’s today’s gains
I believe that it is not about iOs … GOOG would have sunk too …
I suspect it is about the CPU’s … Yes … Apple does manufacture “Trucks” ! …
But way better “Trucks” …
Trucks that may be used in farms ! … Like AAPL’S Virginia’s iTunes Lala farm …
Some time ago I read about the mac mini server being the most cost effective solution for the “industry” to support iPhones … I recall a figure of $11K versus 3 times more using a Win server …
If you were Steve Jobs … Would you not have chosen that “Mac Mini” server ?
Just why did Apple made this device SLIMMER, Greener in terms of power consumptions …
Do you think that they have made all those changes for mac fans like myself ? Gotta be kidding : such a “low margin” product ? … The legend about Mac Minis is that they were meant to STFU investors about some “cheap” CPU … Us, mac fans were shitting in our pants about AAPL discontinuing Mac Minis ! …
maybe it is not about the Mac Mini’s … But that new boy Analyst in town suggested that some 3M macBooks may get sold … !!!!!!!!… Most non ii-literate people on planet earth know that at best AAPL sells 3M CPU’s … But this guy comes out from nowhere and talks to us about MacBooks ! …
I don’t know what to think … Is he a punk ? … Or is he passing a somewhat real but distorted message ?
Do you think it is about a VERIZON iPhone for “early 2011″ ? : B.S. We have heard that at least 10 times before… Only VZ used to go upon such rumours… Did it go up today ? … I did not even bother to look at it …
Could it be about something HUGE ? …
Don’t know … What I know is this : I have not seen AAPL hitting an ATH so TENACIOUSLY or STRONGLY …
i don’t think this is a “Short Squeeze” either … They usually cover within 36 hours … lol
rastard 5:51 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
Not sure I followed you — are you suggesting that Apple’s new data center will be comprised of Mac Mini servers? (and did they decide on Virginia over North Carolina?)
Do large data centers (i.e. the size of the one Apple is rumored to be constructing) actually use Windows servers? I was under the impression that all the biggies used Linux server systems (well, aside from Microsoft’s own data centers)…
caruso2323 6:05 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@rastard
Yes … But how about you sharing your thoughts about that … ?
The last I heard was GOOG was to use AAPL / Linux servers …
What CPU’s would AAPL use … according to you …
caruso2323 6:11 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@rastard
Sorry I meant Carolina …
I guess i prefer Virginia over Carolina… Even the northern one … lol
caruso2323 6:23 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@rastard
Got a question for you …
Let us just pretend that Apple use mac mini’s instead of win / Linux CPU’S …
1) How would they report their sales to a company called “Apple” ?
2) How you they report the expensed part of its hardware ?
caruso2323 6:34 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@rastard
When I posted that theory … Some guy “who thinks being capable of thinking out of thee box” like me posted that link :
http://macminicloud.net/
What is in your box ?
What is outside it Rastard ?
Ever since you followed AAPL trading … Did you ever witnessed it being so tenacious while breaking out ATH even during AH ? …
Care to share with us your speculation ?
caruso2323 6:01 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
Hmmm looks like I spoke too early … :
Verizon Communications (VZ) Hits New High At 32.64 Despite A Lower Overall Market
Posted: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 12:57 PM EDT
Make font size smallerMake font size defaultMake font size larger
Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) hit a new 52-Week high of $32.64 so far today. Currently the stock is up $0.18 (0.56%) to $32.50 on 8,422,737 shares traded. Today’s high is up $6.51 from a 52-Week Low of $25.99. Verizon Communications stock has been showing support around $31.63 and resistance in the $32.85 range. Technical indicators for the stock are neutral and S&P gives VZ a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking. Verizon hits a new 52 week high despite a lower overall market. The DOW is currently down 0.2% on the day. If you are looking for a hedged play on VZ the stock seems like it could be a candidate for a November out-of-the-money bull-put credit spread below the 30 range. [ABR-Seven Summits Strategic Investments NewsBit
So VZis milking that rumor … Fack VZ !
Nicu 6:34 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
there already reports that the datacenter combines hw from several vendors (like ibm and sun for example) but there is no chance in this world they are going to use minis (I know you have some kind of obsession with that computer) – xeon processors are much better when you compare cost/power usage/computing power and servers are made to be manageable at industrial scale, minis have a nice aluminum case which is useless in a data center, 2.5″ hard drives which are slower, more expensive and with smaller capacity, no need for graphics cards, rack mounting and the list can go on and on … I assume you know Apple also builds and sells servers, right ?
http://www.apple.com/xserve/
They probably use that (or better) extensively, but minis are not for that, is like using motorcycles instead of trucks to carry freight because they have a higher mpg (or are cheaper per unit)
caruso2323 7:09 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@nicu
Are you talking about that beast @ $3,600
http://store.apple.com/us_smb_78313/configure/Z0GM?mco=MTM3NTk3Nzk
If according to you, Xeon is so great … Why is it not so popular in the industry ? …
Have you ever been “surprised” by AAPL’s desktop sales in the recent past (I mean before the advent of the new iMac’s” ? … If it is not so great for the rest of the industry, what makes you think that it would be great for Apple ?
I acknowledge the fact that I am “obssessed”about my mac mini’s
… Just want to compare them with your Xeons … lol
caruso2323 7:17 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@nicu
Hey … Nicu … I never suggested that those mac minis be used with internal 2.5″ HD !…
Apple could just STRIP them ! …
Just connect a male-to-female SATA cable into the Hard Disk-less mac mini , and connect the other female side to a 10.7K HD or a 7.2K 2Tb hard disk ! … Even a MacDonald server like me can do that
… BTW Mac Mini’s can accommodate 8GB memory … Care to compare it with Xeon ? What about Watts ? Per Giga flop processing ?…
lol
caruso2323 7:49 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@nicu
Are you talking about this :
Two 2.26GHz Quad-Core Intel Xeon @ $3,599.00 ?
How about Two : 2.4GHz or 2.66GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor… @ $699.00 * 2 =1400
(including the 320 GB internal 2.5′ HD) … Sell them to me for $160 = 1400-160 = $1240
So Nicu … What is speedier : a Xeon quad-core 2.26 GHz or TWO MacMini clients to a Mac Mini server both operating @ 2.4GHz or 2.66GHz ??? Fire-Wired 800 on a network basis ?
at one-third the price of your Xeon of course
——————————————–
One 2.26GHz Quad-Core Intel Xeon “Nehalem” processor Two 2.26GHz Quad-Core Intel Xeon
“Nehalem” processors
3GB memory 3GB memory
160GB 7200-rpm Serial ATA drive module1 160GB 7200-rpm Serial ATA drive module1
Mac OS X Server v10.6 Snow Leopard Mac OS X Server v10.6 Snow Leopard
Ships: Within 24hrs Ships: 2-4 business days
Free Shipping Free Shipping
$2,999.00
caruso2323 6:36 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
gime numbers nicu
GotWake 6:40 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2010/09/01/is-the-idatacenter-ready-for-its-close-up/
Apple says that its “data center environment consists of MacOS X, IBM/AIX, Linux and SUN/Solaris systems.”
caruso2323 6:44 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
nicu are you telling me that AAPL is selling “motorcycles” to the business world ?
Listen, maybe you have a point… Maybe the Mac Mini is meant for “PME’s” … Petites moyennes enterprises…
But hey … Were not the imac beating the pros’s at one point in time ? …
Please do sub-stanciate your Xeon superiority over my BELOVED mac Mini …
Just remember : I am an Engineer … not a Mathematician
So sharpen up your pencil !
mikeinmontreal 7:14 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
Hey, where are you from, Caruso, throwing that French around…
caruso2323 7:18 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@mikeinmontreal
In Montreal like you Mike … Quebec je me souviens
mikeinmontreal 7:27 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
Cool
Like the fall weather we’re having….
Looks like the economists are saying our economy is going to slow down over the next year or so….hopefully the dollar will go down a bit; would be a nice gain from holding US stock/cash….
caruso2323 8:03 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@mikeinmontreal
Hey Mike ! … I don’t mind so much the Fall season here …
But just forget about Winter ! … I am headed “El South√©” …
Yup ! …
Those MF TD Canada trust want to increase by 0.5% my interest Mortgage for 12 months using 3.0% … Damn ! Have they not heard about DEFLATION just south ?
OK … maybe we have higher inflation here … But did you check the price of coffee ? it is up by 250% , what about Bread ? … If we were in Egypt I can assure you there would be RIOTS …
This begs a question : Do our neighbours pay less for Coffee or bread ?
BTW these are my main engridients … much like my Mac Mini’s … lol
What about us paying the highest WW telecom fees for 3 gs ! … Someone better investigate DOC … A 3 year contract for an iPhone 4 g not available before 1 mo to 2 mo provided you pay a deposit of $50 ? WTF ? … Not even unlimited ! … $50 /mo for 5 GB ? Fack !
caruso2323 8:07 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@mikeinmontreal
Did you notice that Tax loopHole … ?
We get taxed on capital gains US $ converted to Ca $ … say at 1.02
In a few years from now (assuming the americans don’t become japanese and be burdened by DEFLATION) if the US rises to 1.42 : We won’t get taxed on that 40% gain ! …
Nicu 1:59 am on September 23, 2010 605 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
it’s not even funny, I fire a bullet and you get 10 for that one
if you followed Apple’s philosophy, more important than the upfront cost is TCO, and they are not going to take their own minis and take the HDD out and put some cables … if they wanted the cheapest possible, they would order some motherboards with 2 cheap processors in them and put together a bunch of them – the important thing in the datacenter is reliability, manageability and operating costs, not the upfront cost (and in this case the time to completion is also very important)
xeons are really workhorses that have better energy efficiency and they pack much more power in the same space; xserve are ready to deploy in racks and solutions for power and networking are already on the market
what you propose sounds more like google, where everything will be in beta until the end of times
mikeinmontreal 9:51 pm on September 22, 2010 605 days ago Reply
I just changed my mortgage with BMO. Went from prime + .5 to prime – .65. 3 month penalty but good savings for 3.5 years. Good thing our housing market is strong. I don’t mind capital gains. I have enough losses from the early 2000s. I’m with Fido. Surprisingly, I got a decent deal.