mikeinmontreal
9:40 pm on February 11, 2011 463 days agoReply
I saw your morning tweet. I would love $366 next week
rastard
2:33 am on February 12, 2011 463 days agoReply
And where would such a pattern put us at the end of the year if it continued?
Nicu
9:34 am on February 12, 2011 462 days agoReply
Unfortunately this is not realistic (go over $700 this year) but $500 is doable
We will probably have 100% y/y EPS growth in Q2 and the other 2 ER will be very strong too (probably less than 100%, depends on what iPad 2 / iPhone 5 bring to the table) but it will become clear that Apple is a $100B/y in sales company.
Some analysts / large investors will become schizophrenic when they see 100% y/y growth for a $100B company …
Cash will be over $90B when they announce it in October (and over $100B in January) if they don’t start spending aggressively.
Add to that the usual spring and fall rallies, the fact that NASDAQ will soon get to places it did not visit for 10 years or so … and $500 by the end of december looks quite boring
caruso2323
5:42 am on February 13, 2011 461 days agoReply
The closest future week is always the most reliable to pattern out … LOL …
The upper-trend EXISTING line does suggest a top at 365 this coming week … But if my theory is correct, and that AAPL is about to engage into the slightly steeper and FORMER up-trend line we may bust through 365 and reach as high as 375 … It all hinges on what AAPL may announce Monday morning in terms of 1st Week-End sales of the VZ iP4′s :
- If above 1.5 M I say we could get as high as 370 if the overall market takes a break , and up to 375 if the market keeps marching up !…
- If 1.0M I’d say we top at 265-266
- If below 0.7M than we dive again to 350 and possibly 345 (the projected MA20 on Monday, it stands at 344.20 as of last Friday) assuming the market pulls-back ! ….
That is my take !
Nicu
8:25 am on February 13, 2011 461 days agoReply
I think 1-1.5M iPhones are already baked in, so 1M may actually trigger a mild drop and 1.5M may have no effect – but thinks will get interesting if we get closer to 2M (not very likely, unfortunately)
caruso2323
5:51 am on February 13, 2011 461 days agoReply
But Looking at 3 of my up-trend lines for the End of Ec, 2011 I see : 445, 468 and 485 ! …
I am not worried about December 2011 … What worries me is MARCH 2011 with the Debt crisis looming on the horizon ! … Some one please HELP with PUTS applicable to such scenario !!! …
Nicu
8:58 am on February 13, 2011 461 days agoReply
I would not recommend the following to anyone who is not very comfortable with options, and even then … but here is what I do / experiment currently as protection against a market wide pullback / crash :
VIX calls; VIX is some kind of average of IV of options on S&P 500 stocks; usually (but not mechanically) it goes up when S&P pulls back and shoots to the moon when there are serious troubles on the market – that’s why they call it the fear index.
If you check VIX calls, they have IV of generally over 100, which would make it seem they are very expensive (AAPL options are normally in the range 20-40). But VIX is not a value, it can shoot up 30% every day for 5 days straight (52wk Range : 14.86 – 48.20) – take a look at 1 or 3 year chart, also compare it to S&P.
What I did : I got in Jun 22.5 calls, now at an average a bit over $3 but they sell for $2 and some (so I’m clearly under water when everybody smiles and the sun shines – I’ll keep average down); one annoying thing with those is that they are european style (and you cannot trade VIX), so it is not impossible to be valued at less than the difference VIX – strike (actually it happens all the time for puts); BUT, normally, if there is a general prolonged pullback (say over 10% for the S&P), VIX should climb at 30, so 22.5 calls should be over $7.5, that is 3-4x from now. If it goes again to 45-48 as last spring, it is a 10-12x thing
I would not do that as a regular trade, just as insurance, so one should not allocate more than a few % of money on this.
Ok, that’s my limited experience with VIX, I would like to learn more if some of you have more / other insights.
mikeinmontreal 9:40 pm on February 11, 2011 463 days ago Reply
I saw your morning tweet. I would love $366 next week
rastard 2:33 am on February 12, 2011 463 days ago Reply
And where would such a pattern put us at the end of the year if it continued?
Nicu 9:34 am on February 12, 2011 462 days ago Reply
Unfortunately this is not realistic (go over $700 this year) but $500 is doable
We will probably have 100% y/y EPS growth in Q2 and the other 2 ER will be very strong too (probably less than 100%, depends on what iPad 2 / iPhone 5 bring to the table) but it will become clear that Apple is a $100B/y in sales company.
Some analysts / large investors will become schizophrenic when they see 100% y/y growth for a $100B company …
Cash will be over $90B when they announce it in October (and over $100B in January) if they don’t start spending aggressively.
Add to that the usual spring and fall rallies, the fact that NASDAQ will soon get to places it did not visit for 10 years or so … and $500 by the end of december looks quite boring
caruso2323 5:42 am on February 13, 2011 461 days ago Reply
The closest future week is always the most reliable to pattern out … LOL …
The upper-trend EXISTING line does suggest a top at 365 this coming week … But if my theory is correct, and that AAPL is about to engage into the slightly steeper and FORMER up-trend line we may bust through 365 and reach as high as 375 … It all hinges on what AAPL may announce Monday morning in terms of 1st Week-End sales of the VZ iP4′s :
- If above 1.5 M I say we could get as high as 370 if the overall market takes a break , and up to 375 if the market keeps marching up !…
- If 1.0M I’d say we top at 265-266
- If below 0.7M than we dive again to 350 and possibly 345 (the projected MA20 on Monday, it stands at 344.20 as of last Friday) assuming the market pulls-back ! ….
That is my take !
Nicu 8:25 am on February 13, 2011 461 days ago Reply
I think 1-1.5M iPhones are already baked in, so 1M may actually trigger a mild drop and 1.5M may have no effect – but thinks will get interesting if we get closer to 2M (not very likely, unfortunately)
caruso2323 5:51 am on February 13, 2011 461 days ago Reply
But Looking at 3 of my up-trend lines for the End of Ec, 2011 I see : 445, 468 and 485 ! …
I am not worried about December 2011 … What worries me is MARCH 2011 with the Debt crisis looming on the horizon ! … Some one please HELP with PUTS applicable to such scenario !!! …
Nicu 8:58 am on February 13, 2011 461 days ago Reply
I would not recommend the following to anyone who is not very comfortable with options, and even then … but here is what I do / experiment currently as protection against a market wide pullback / crash :
VIX calls; VIX is some kind of average of IV of options on S&P 500 stocks; usually (but not mechanically) it goes up when S&P pulls back and shoots to the moon when there are serious troubles on the market – that’s why they call it the fear index.
If you check VIX calls, they have IV of generally over 100, which would make it seem they are very expensive (AAPL options are normally in the range 20-40). But VIX is not a value, it can shoot up 30% every day for 5 days straight (52wk Range : 14.86 – 48.20) – take a look at 1 or 3 year chart, also compare it to S&P.
What I did : I got in Jun 22.5 calls, now at an average a bit over $3 but they sell for $2 and some (so I’m clearly under water when everybody smiles and the sun shines – I’ll keep average down); one annoying thing with those is that they are european style (and you cannot trade VIX), so it is not impossible to be valued at less than the difference VIX – strike (actually it happens all the time for puts); BUT, normally, if there is a general prolonged pullback (say over 10% for the S&P), VIX should climb at 30, so 22.5 calls should be over $7.5, that is 3-4x from now. If it goes again to 45-48 as last spring, it is a 10-12x thing
I would not do that as a regular trade, just as insurance, so one should not allocate more than a few % of money on this.
Ok, that’s my limited experience with VIX, I would like to learn more if some of you have more / other insights.