I listened to their webcast Tuesday evening and I thought some of you would appreciate some interesting points :
• Model S is on track : the production line is almost ready; most contracts with suppliers signed – some parts could be even be produced in house if the supplier fails / creates problems / tries to increase prices just before launch; 15 alpha version cars under tests for cold weather, ABS (with Bosch) etc.
• they will have beta Model S late summer and let potential customers drive test them; this will coincide with the marketing push for reservations – for the moment they have 3700 reservations (at least $5000 each)
• a 5 star safety 2010 rating equals 3 star 2012 rating; Model S will be 5 star by the 2012 standard – obviously they will crash a lot of those beauties
• Elon is very excited by the sports version of Model S – no other details about it
• they spent extra (1y return on investment) to be able to make 20k Model S per year with one shift – so if needed they can accelerate to 60k/y really fast
• they have new chemistry in the battery cells for Model S (from Panasonic) – people with be excited with the results, most cannot believe that what they achieved is possible today
• reported y/y revenue growth about 100%, improved GM, bigger loss due to Model S, more orders from Daimler, Toyota …
• SUV Model X prototype will be unveiled this year, $100M development costs (compared to over $500M for Model S), will share the platform of Model S
their GM on the Model S will be about 25% – think about it : in a rosy future, during 2013, they will sell 40k cars so GM will be about the revenue of 10k cars, say ASP $70k ($57k minimum, no options, minimum range), that means $700M GM only from Model S – add to that battery packs and power-trains for their partners and you have $500M 1y EPS (after taxes, fixed costs) for a market cap of slightly over four times that today 
Senator Gronk 4:13 am on February 23, 2011 823 days ago Reply
Nicu, primarily because of your constant posts… ; ) I have become interested in Tesla. Now that they have a showroom here I’m going to swing by and check it out in the flesh. I noticed last fall that they were trading higher as the market flagged into Oct/Nov and then suddenly dropped a third of their value. Any ideas what was happening there?
Using the mid-30′s number as a target for them to retrace in the near future, it would seem that they’re a bargain here in the low 20′s. I would intend to hold long in the 5-10 range. Seems you agree, but I still feel the need to watch before I jump in…
Nicu 8:50 am on February 23, 2011 823 days ago Reply
yep, it dropped about $14 from the peak; one reason was that people who bought at IPO had to keep those shares for 6 months; obviously there are other reasons, but I’m not sure which are those – I just trust them to ship Model S in 2012 and to be a great car; it may very well not sell briskly during the first year but with oil over $100 for a long period (and $150-$200 every time there is a crisis) and their technological advance over the competition, they should do well long term
just ask them to drive the Roadster, they should be happy to let you do it
Nicu 10:43 am on February 27, 2011 819 days ago Reply
Some wild speculation :
We know that the 300mi range battery has the same number of cells (8000) as the 230mi one. Just different chemistry / structure inside cells. So we may assume they also have higher power density, not only energy density. As they can be charged in 45 min. to 80% capacity, all models should be quite high power both ways. The 5000 cells battery can achieve 0-60mph in 5.6s.
So where I want to come to is the following : the 300mi pack should have about twice the power (and energy) than the 160mi one. Add a second motor for AWD and you get a sport version with double the power and torque. It is slightly heavier (100-150 kg) so instead of 5.6s/2 = 2.8s, you get 3s for 0-60mph !
I know it sounds crazy, but for $10k-$15k extra for the end user, you get a family car that beats all Ferraris, Lamborghinis, Porches, Jaguars … you name it ! You can count on your fingers the cars getting under 3s for 0-60mph, we are talking about real super car beasts here !
Of course they could not sell Roadsters anymore if they announce this Big Boy. But they plan to stop production this year and sell the stock by the introduction of the Model S anyway !
So I guess we have to wait at least one year to check how far from the truth I am. Of course, if the sports model does not have two motors, just a slightly modified one, none of this is even close.
I would add that they also have hinted at an AWD, and it makes no sense to build a complicated transmission which would be as heavy as a second motor (and a bit of extra cables + software) – and inefficient. As the battery occupies the floor of the car, the transmission would also modify the chassis. And there is a trunk in front, just use a quarter of it for the second motor (+ PEM + the small gearbox).
Nicu 9:50 pm on April 24, 2011 762 days ago Reply
Elon Musk more or less confirms my speculation; if you do not have time to watch it entirely, just go to 3:38s
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/0_0_WP_3001.html?currentPlayingLocation=NaN¤tlyPlayingCollection=The%20Big%20Interview¤tlyPlayingVideoId={CCF1FC62-BB0D-4561-938C-DF0DEFAD15BA}
Nicu 9:51 pm on April 24, 2011 762 days ago Reply
it seems one has to copy the link