caruso2323 11:06 pm on July 15, 2011 309 days ago Reply

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  Nicu 5:21 am on July 16, 2011 308 days ago Reply

  Nobody but Apple has solid data points about the iPhone #s. Fortunately they will announce it soon enough. But you know, Apple may grow at more than 100% y/y and still be attacked the week after earnings.

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  Birra 11:42 am on July 16, 2011 308 days ago Reply

  Nicu, how about a little more pressure. My continued retirement depends upon you! You’re right, however, Apple will always be under attack, else how will the hedge funds play their option games between slingshot earnings.

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  Nicu 10:33 am on July 17, 2011 307 days ago Reply

  One hint is that : the white iPhone was out of stock in China and Hong Kong basically the whole quarter. Now it ships in 24h in China and 5-7 days in HK.
  http://store.apple.com/hk/browse/home/shop_iphone/family/iphone

  I am the most bullish only in iPhone #s (which implies revenue and earnings bullishness) and if you look at my estimate, it’s “only” 1.6M more than during Q2. Not so for iPads, Macs, iPods not gross margin.

  For the iPhone, my reasons are that until last quarter, iPhone was supply constrained. Apple managed to sell 2M more in Q2 compared to Q1 – Christmas quarter. Now it had a full quarter on Verizon, white model and plenty of supply – still constrained in China and HK for some time (HK is a hub for relatively cheap unlocked iPhones for quite a large area). They also started selling it unlocked in US about a month ago. I am sure Apple continues to expand their market with many small carriers we do not hear about anymore (after 100 carriers, this is no news and the media just gives up reporting that). And among the whole addressable market, I do not think more than 10% know about the refresh cycle of Apple products, let alone the specifics of this year’s iPhone launch schedule.

  Only time (2.5 days now) will tell, but I think the other “amateurs” become more “professional” in limiting their bullishness by fear of being ridiculous (starting with Zacky, especially when he makes predictions 6m or 1-2y out). Most are also following each other or the best of them to some degree. I do not play those games, for better or worse.

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    Nicu 12:49 am on July 18, 2011 307 days ago Reply

    Just found that about herds and I like it : “Most of us know that money managers, analysts and investors tend to follow the herd, but few of us ever really come to grips the unappetizing corollaries that:

    • Unless you’re the leader the view never changes; and
    • If you follow a big enough herd, you’ll spend a lot of time wallowing in manure.”

    source
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/226591-alice-in-evland-6-impossible-things-i-believe

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      Birra 12:01 pm on July 18, 2011 306 days ago Reply

      Add an item to the list:

      • If you follow the herd, you are the most likely to get eaten by predators.

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  Nicu 8:42 pm on July 19, 2011 305 days ago Reply

  EPS $7.79
  Revs 28.57M

  20.3M iPhones – Happy now Caruso ?
  9.25M iPads
  3.95M Macs
  7.54M iPods

  41.7% GM

  guidance $5.5 LOL

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    JPWatkins 11:46 pm on July 19, 2011 305 days ago Reply

    You were pretty much right on (as I expected.)
    I liked your strategy on estimating the white iPhone numbers.
    Really good work (for an amateur )