Short interest in TSLA has been steadily rising for months. It is now at 17.67M which is about 34.7% of the float (if the total of 50.9M of float is the current number – I do not know if it includes the recent stock issuance).
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=TSLA&selected=TSLA
There are many bears out there and there are some serious reasons the electric revolution is not here yet, but good news about the Model S and / or the company (partnerships, other models etc.) could send the stock to new all time highs helped by scared bears. If one wants to gather some information against Tesla and other EVs / Li-ion, a good place to start is here
http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-petersen/articles
The guy (John Petersen) is smart and experienced. But nobody is perfect and he confounds the long term problems of electrification (non-ferrous metals scarcity – not Lithium, which represents a small fraction of the metals used in a Li-ion battery) and the huge challenge of manufacturing new discoveries (Tesla is just improving tested tech they had in the Roadster) with the particularity of Tesla. He even included it in a short portfolio amongst several Li-ion producers / innovators.
Nicu 7:03 pm on July 27, 2011 297 days ago Reply
18.2M short interest, 35.7%, same link
Nicu 2:20 pm on August 11, 2011 282 days ago Reply
19.26M short or 36.8% of float
Nicu 3:04 pm on August 26, 2011 267 days ago Reply
20.1M
Nicu 6:33 pm on September 1, 2011 261 days ago Reply
Et voilà! I wrote an article based on this idea. It contains more than the idea, a bit of detective work I have done recently
http://seekingalpha.com/article/291188-tesla-the-looming-short-squeeze
Nicu 3:26 pm on September 2, 2011 260 days ago Reply
in Dec $45 C @ $0.05
I consider this money lost already; they will be useful only if there is a short squeeze
they are fine with a 1.3% probability to see TSLA at $50 and 0.43% to see TSLA $60 – very speculative blackish swan
Nicu 2:24 pm on October 13, 2011 219 days ago Reply
21.97M on 09/30 – keep piling the gun powder shorters !!!
Nicu 8:43 am on October 25, 2011 207 days ago Reply
It seems bears are getting nervous. That exactly where I want them to be, it’s the first step towards panic.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-24/tesla-shorted-as-obama-boosts-electric-cars-bgov-barometer.html
conshmillo 10:06 am on October 25, 2011 207 days ago Reply
There is a very good chance of short squeeze as many of the protective stops of some of those bears must be around 29.50. If TSLA can get there, and it looks from here like it can, then getting them run could spark a nice little chain reaction.
Nicu 8:38 pm on October 25, 2011 207 days ago Reply
23.6M shares short (10/14)
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest
keep building that nice big dynamite
Nicu 12:46 pm on October 28, 2011 204 days ago Reply
During the first two weeks of October, a net of 1 614 499 shares were shorted, out of a total volume of 11 600 397. This is more than 13.9% of all exchanged shares during the period.
In the same time, the price went up 18.2% (from $24.99 to $28.05).
Something has to give in the long term. The wire is extended beyond manufacturer’s specifications already !
Nicu 11:18 pm on November 9, 2011 192 days ago Reply
24.9M shares short at 10/31
13.4% of the total volume of 10M shares during the period (10/17 – 10/31) were shorted
of course, the most interesting info is what happened in Nov, when we had 10M volume during 7 trading days and the share went as high as $32.5 (from below $30 prior) after earnings that were reported non Nov 2; we will only have this info in about two weeks but for sure there are lots of shorted shares left – how far can they be squeezed before they crack and cover ?
Nicu 12:54 am on November 16, 2011 186 days ago Reply
I just posted this as a comment on my article on Seeking Alpha, verbatim
“Some updates:
• Jan 2014 option available since Monday 14.
• Institutional ownership 54.19M shares as of the end of September:
http://bit.ly/set8Sx
• As there are no notable changes in insider ownership, this leaves just shy of 0.6M shares for the free float. Basically all shares are owned by insiders and institutions.
• Short interest increased to 24.93M (as of 10/31):
http://bit.ly/tpZhsb
• More than 13% of all October volume came from shorted stock. Price has increased from low 20s to $34 during the last two months.
All those make the situation even more explosive. Obviously, there is no guarantee – we don’t even know if the huge volume we had during the last two weeks comes from covering shorts, more shorts or simply stock changing hands.
As I am a bit of a gambler and very optimistic by nature, I have accumulated some 320 calls expiring in December and January, at high enough strike so that they only cost me $0.05 each (plus fees which become non-negligible at this price – 20 of them at a lower strike cost me about $.70 including fees). If there is a real wave, I may short the stock, covered by those calls, to lock up gains. This is also because puts with high enough strike are not available. If I manage to pocket nice gains on the way up, I may put to work some of it into puts, in order to gain on the way back down too. If the ball starts rolling, I will probably post my trades in this thread (as I always do on Traderhood.com).”
Nicu 1:16 am on November 26, 2011 176 days ago Reply
For the first time since May, the short interest went down during the first two weeks of November by … 0.06M
I was afraid that the huge volume and increase in price after earnings meant many shorts covered – not true. However, I tried to short 2-3 times this week (at limit $50, mind you), but my broker could not borrow the shares. So maybe that’s one of the reasons short interest is not going up, because it simply can’t. Days to cover went significantly down from 26.7 to 15.6.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest
So the short squeeze is still looming, more so than ever
Nicu 8:19 pm on February 16, 2012 93 days ago Reply
By my recent calculations with new data from nasdaq.com on institutional ownership (available every 3 months), insider + institutional ownership equals the total amount of shares plus more than 3 million – these are shorts that have a rope around their neck and are getting a bit jumpy on their chairs.
The short interest is also highest ever, 25.16M. We are approaching $35 which was the wall during several weeks in November. Early december MS downgraded TSLA to “underweight” and $44 target … a little help for their friends.
While there were now extraordinary news yesterday evening in the earnings call, Model S is on schedule, no major risks, no price hikes, very probably 5* in every category, Model X selling like hotcakes, nice $550-$600M revenue projection for 2012.
Nicu 8:26 pm on February 16, 2012 93 days ago Reply
now -> no