Here we go again…..
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11355084/1/putting-a-future-value-on-apple.html
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Here we go again…..
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11355084/1/putting-a-future-value-on-apple.html
conshmillo 12:36 am on December 23, 2011 149 days ago Reply
I am not big at earnings estimates, but what I don’t understand is how someone can say without any reasoning whatsoever that over the next five years, Apple’s growth rate will not come close to 70%. I do not know either way, but someone just pulls that assumption out of their ass and then bases rest of the calculations on it. What if Apple takes 20% of Microsoft business in next five years. What if Google’s Android ends up as Blackberry. What if every family in 2016 will have something called smart TV and Apple will have 40% of that market. All hypotheticals, but point is how someone knows there will not be 70% growth for Apple. And I’m not eve saying it will.
rastard 1:01 am on December 23, 2011 149 days ago Reply
Well, the investors amongst us want people to listen to this tool, so that we get the opportunity to buy more AAPL at $300.
Just out of curiosity, do you have the same problem with people who assert over the next 5 years, Apple *will* have 70% growth?
Bunratty 2:14 am on December 23, 2011 149 days ago Reply
There are several well-informed individuals who think such a growth rate can be sustained. It is the WS analysts who simply cannot get their heads around this disruption concept. To state that an ‘ideal’ entry point for AAPL to be around 300 (with a tacit suggestion that the stock price will drop 25% any time soon) is puerile. To throw out a 10% growth rate in such a cowboy fashion is inept.
conshmillo 2:53 am on December 23, 2011 149 days ago Reply
No, and here is why. Althought I do not sit on anything for 5 years, I base my shorter term decisions on technicals. That is you take data for most recent past, any data, do moving average on them and then you can estimate based on the result what’s going on. In this instance, I would like to see what at the minimum 5 data points for growth are (one for each year). If toward the last data point compared to previous ones tendency is decrease, I would find out how much this decreasing tendency perceptually is compared to previous years. If I saw decreasing tendency over past few most recent data point I could see how much and base my prediction for next year on that. This guy didn’t do any of that. He just pulled the number out of his ass.
Nicu 9:06 am on December 23, 2011 148 days ago Reply
I analyzed exactly this perception problem and made a 5 year prediction here
http://seekingalpha.com/article/315207-apple-analysts-perpetually-clueless