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  • TRADE

    Nicu 2:38 pm on March 30, 2012 - 50 days ago

    1
    Nicu

    in VXX @ $16.95 – small amount, my aim is to build a position in TVIX ( 2x VXX, which tracks the VIX)

    protection in the case of a new “crisis”, but today TVIX was up while VXX was down … they do not track the VIX perfectly because they track futures and long term, there is some compound loss of correlation, see for more details here (this also answers my question why USO does not track oil well but GLD tracks gold quite nicely)

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/374391-contango-in-futures-based-commodity-etfs-a-real-profit-killer

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:40 pm on May 17, 2012 2 days ago

      out of the entire position @ $20.39 (+20%)

  • 18
    Nicu

    Nicu 8:30 pm on March 29, 2012 - 51 days ago

    I know that I may look like a lunatic, but this is what Numbers tells me when I put my crystal ball readouts in the table. I will try to write an article for SeekingAlpha to explain my general methodology in detail and the particular reasons for this quarter. If I learn meaningful stuff from readers, I may adjust the numbers.

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:53 pm on March 29, 2012 51 days ago

      Oh, I found the key on computing the date (at least the week) of the earnings call (I lost some 5 digits sum in January for not having this key; frustration can be a good thing if you look at it from a positive angle). It should be April 24 or 25 (for the reasoning, stay tuned for my SA article).

    • eatingbeets

      eatingbeets 2:37 pm on March 30, 2012 50 days ago

      Wow… that is indeed a crazy number. If you’re right, how dramatically do you think this will effect the share price? I remember years ago seeing the stock price jump 15%+ after earnings. You think we could see that again? Are you loading up on short term calls today as AAPL dips below $600?

      • Nicu

        Nicu 2:42 pm on March 30, 2012 50 days ago

        P/E is again above 17 and this makes short term predictions much harder; when it was 13 or so I “knew” it could not go much lower – now I have no idea; maybe good numbers will just present big players the occasion to unload tons of AAPL without crashing it …

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:45 pm on March 30, 2012 50 days ago

        the only thing I “worry”about, is that after earnings we won’t be able to go back below $550 so I won’t be able to deploy efficiently my $100k dry powder … if there is nothing to spook the markets during the next three weeks, I will have to take some painful decisions – like throwing some good money after bad (short term calls) ?!?

        • eatingbeets

          eatingbeets 4:20 pm on March 30, 2012 50 days ago

          Yeah I’m still holding on to my Jan 2014 $550 calls… hit my strike price a little earlier than expected :)

          • Nicu

            Nicu 4:25 pm on March 30, 2012 50 days ago

            don’t know what your growth targets are, but I think by the time those calls expire, AAPL should be at $900 or more – I will try to write a long term study / prediction article after the earnings call

            • eatingbeets

              eatingbeets 2:47 am on April 10, 2012 40 days ago

              Ha I don’t really have growth targets. I graduated from art school, got a job, and for the first time in my life had a 5 figure savings account in the bank. I foolishly (or not) put it all into AAPL right before the first iPhone came out. Been gradually adding to my position here and there where I can and for the first time thought I’d supplement with some LEAP options. Truth be told I have no idea what I’m doing. What should my growth target be?

              Also curious if you’re still standing behind these numbers in light of all the articles coming out today about AAPL being downgraded to neutral on iphone weakness. Blah Blah Blah

              http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/04/09/analyst_cuts_aapl_rating_on_iphone_subsidy_backlash_estimates_1b_earnings_miss.html

              http://marketplayground.com/2012/04/09/apple-aapl-in-the-eye-of-the-climax-run/

            • Nicu

              Nicu 4:25 am on April 10, 2012 39 days ago

              Those analysts have no idea what they are talking about – when you’ll get the new iPhone on China Mobile, the hell will break loose!

              I think we should see $900 in 12 months from now, but I have said by the expiration of your calls just to take some margin for error. If there is no war or double dip recession, you will be very pleasantly surprised by AAPL in 18 months. If you want to protect yourself against *any* risk with those calls, you could at some point exchange them for higher strike calls + cash (that should cover the initial price paid).

              Example: you can enter an option spread order as follows (you choose the strikes and the amount of $ you want, but as a rule of thumb, it is quite hard to get more than 70% of the difference in cash so early wrt expiration)

              - buy to open $580C, sell to close $550 C for net credit of $13

            • Nicu

              Nicu 4:57 am on April 10, 2012 39 days ago

              sorry, $13 (or $13.5) credit corresponds to a strike difference of $20, for a $30 step you could ask for $19.5 or 20:

              1) buy to open $570C, sell to close $550 C for net credit of $13
              or
              2) buy to open $580C, sell to close $550 C for net credit of $20

            • Zee

              Zee 5:41 am on April 10, 2012 39 days ago

              Beets. I took a journey with Google to see what that analyst Walter Piecyk had to say going as far back as 2009. He’s had opinions re AT&T, VZW, Apple and HTC. And he has always been grotesquely wrong. The big question remains why? And I think he’s trying to make a name or else settle for attention. I don’t understand why they aren’t setting accuracy as their objective. Being employed as fund managers etc, they do know how to crunch…

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:02 am on April 17, 2012 32 days ago

      • eatingbeets

        eatingbeets 1:49 pm on April 17, 2012 32 days ago

        Very well thought out article. Thanks for that. You scared me away from short term options but I picked up a few Jan 2013 $700 calls when AAPL was in the red this morning. Honestly surprised to see the stock dropping this low but have confidence that things will be very good for AAPL in the long term.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 1:53 pm on April 17, 2012 32 days ago

          Thanks!

          AAPL is crazy too lately, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we go even below $550 this week. Now +$8 for the day, after -$7 or so earlier (all that in 24 minutes).

      • SB

        SB 5:10 pm on April 17, 2012 32 days ago

        Nice presentation. First time I have hear the expression “blowing in the yogurt” (in the comments). Re your options, do you primarily purchase calls?

        • Nicu

          Nicu 5:15 pm on April 17, 2012 32 days ago

          Thanks!

          It seems it is an Egyptian proverb that I have more or less translated either from french or romanian

          Literal translation: This who burn his/her tounge when eating soup, will blow
          in the yogurt.
          Hidden meaning: The impact of bad experiences makes one weary.
          Applicability: When someone get very suspicious because of a bad experience.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 5:17 pm on April 17, 2012 32 days ago

          Yes, I mainly purchase calls and when they are well in the money, I sell the call spread (pocketing the profit but instead of selling them, just rising the strike). With the cash, I try to accumulate more on pullbacks.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 5:18 pm on April 17, 2012 32 days ago

          The proverb in Egyptian :)
          “Elli yetlesse3 men el shorba yenfokh felzabadi”

          http://almashriq.hiof.no/egypt/800/808/proverbs/egyptian_proverbs.txt

  • Nicu

    Nicu 2:38 pm on March 27, 2012 - 53 days ago

    with volume of 1M in just over one hour of trading (before yesterday the 10 day daily average was 0.9M).

    more than 25M shares (out of 104M total, about half being in the hands of insiders) were short 12 days ago

    bears are starting to hear some bones cracking under the weight – maybe $40 will be a major psychological barrier, should we break it – only sky is the limit !

     

  • Nicu 7:07 am on March 23, 2012 - 57 days ago

    3
     
    • GotWake

      GotWake 8:16 pm on March 23, 2012 57 days ago

      This exactly what I thought when I was watching CNBC the day after announcement. They had a few fund managers on that had NO position in Apple. The guy from Lyrical Asset Management talking about how aapl wasn’t good enough to make the cut for their 35 stocks portfolio. Their fund is up 150% since 2009…… aapl up 450%. I had to laugh out loud. :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:31 am on March 24, 2012 56 days ago

      After having the same success with the same strategy for ten years – great products, stupid! – they still don’t get it. They still try to fit Apple in the narrow cells of their mental spreadsheets.
      http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304724404577299320281321682.html?mod=rss_opinion_main

      “Investors want to know Apple will remain focused on profits, not on frittering away past winnings trying to preserve an unnatural dominance.”

      • GotWake

        GotWake 2:34 pm on March 24, 2012 56 days ago

        Apple doesn’t release a 4G tablet….. everyone would be pissed. Apple releases a 4G tablet with higher pixel density….. everyone is pissed that it runs hotter and eats data faster (simple f*cking physics). If Apple doesn’t release a 4G iPhone this year, we will be hearing about it. Apple doesn’t give a dividend…. everyone is pissed they aren’t giving back their cash….. Apple does give a dividend/buyback….. everyone is pissed because Apple will still be gaining cash. I don’t think analysts can be satisfied. Imagine if they held other stocks in their portfolio to the same standards that they hold Apple to.

  • 2
    Nicu

    Nicu 9:30 pm on March 19, 2012 - 61 days ago

    And not delaying the launch in additional countries this week-end. This means they have produced quite a bunch of them and have a good running speed. I see no reason for them not to sell another 3-4M of the new iPad by the end of the quarter. Add to that 2 months of normal price iPad 2 + one month of cheaper iPad 2 (the iPad 2 was on backlog in China one week ago!). 12M for the quarter is doable. 40M iPhones is doable (4S was on backlog until last week in Hong Kong). All that means that we may equal or slightly beat the holiday EPS (maybe less revenue but higher GM due to iPhone). One roadblock to that is that there is one less week during this quarter and the second is that Chinese factories were closed for 1-2 weeks for their new year.

    Very interesting times :D

    SOURCE:
    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/03/19/apple_sold_over_3_million_ipads_over_launch_weekend.html

     
    • Zee

      Zee 1:30 am on March 20, 2012 61 days ago

      The guy who wrote the article made a mistake. Sorry. He wrote that the iPad3 goes on sale March 23rd in 24 countries. Then he lists them. I counted his list. There’s 25 countries on the list. Hmm.

    • henrystar

      Richard 10:26 am on March 20, 2012 60 days ago

      If my calendar were to be adopted, all quarters would be of exactly the same length:
      http://henry.pha.jhu.edu/hanke.henry.pdf

  • 15
    Nicu

    Nicu 10:42 pm on March 18, 2012 - 62 days ago

    Quite unexpected to me. I thought they will keep it at least until earnings report and even then continue to kick the can down the road …

    What is your bet?

    I think they will highlight what they already invest: production lines, retail stores, data centers, new headquarters, even acquired companies, but they have to hand some meat to WS dogs too.

    I think a dividend is low probability (at most 15%) until they have a tax holiday or something. A share buyback slightly more probable (25%). Both increase significantly if they have a deal with uncle Sam (unlikely not to be public / generalized to other companies).

    Then there are acquisitions. I think large companies are off the map. But say a music / movies catalog, or something equivalent that I cannot imagine right now. The only problem is that those would be of insignificant scale … any ideas?

    SOURCE:
    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/03/18/apple_to_host_conference_call_monday_to_discuss_its_100b_cash_balance.html

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 1:12 am on March 19, 2012 62 days ago

      I certainly hope they are not going to take the dividend route. Buyback would add the greatest value to current investors and hey, all of them at Apple invested in AAPL. If that happened that would be seismic. Jobs said “I will spend my last dying breath to destroy Android”, so I wonder if there is some clause somewhere to finish what he intended to do there. Knowing that Apple always focuses on being a hardware company I doubt they will spend money on buying something like Yahoo, Netflix or Twitter. So if they buy something it will be probably something that will allow them to do better and/or cheaper hardware.

      • GotWake

        GotWake 1:49 am on March 19, 2012 62 days ago

        I agree, I hope it’s not a dividend. The scary thing about having that much money, the wrong person could completely destroy a company by trying to do too much with it. Buying just because you can is not a strategy.

        Trading is going to be CRAZY in the morning before the conference!

    • Kit

      Kit 7:36 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

      Whatever Apple announces, major players have already driven up the price in anticipation. A buyback? I fail to see why Apple would have telegraphed such a move merely to transfer its hard-earned profits to institutions that it has hitherto scorned. I guess a stock split is out of the question, and to hold a conference before the market opens cannot simply be to state that there is still no news. So, a dividend it will be. The change of heart must correspond to Cook having recently taken the reins and consoladated his power? Would a one-time payout suit a man who is still waiting for a substantial number of shares to vest? No, so a regular dividend. My guess is that Apple holds onto its 100B and pays the dividend out of its quarterly profits. Let’s assume that this represents the full quarterly amount (more or less)–juicey by any standard and it puts a cap on the growing pile of cash.

      • Zee

        Zee 8:31 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

        Probably eh. But also he said it was unnecessary to need so much money to run a company. And whatever that means could result in the stock receding. Whatever. It should be interesting.

        • Zee

          Zee 8:34 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

          Yeah I guess Mister Market is happy. Pre Market is $600.50 pps. A new high.

          • Zee

            Zee 11:17 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

            $604.30 :-)

        • Kit

          Kit 9:12 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

          Good point, and we will certainly all be waiting to see what happens in the next few hours. Still, I’ll be surprised if Cook releases a substantial portion of cash and so takes money out of his own (future) pocket. Then again, if I were not in the habit of regularly being surprised by Apple, I’d be a rich man by now.

          • Zee

            Zee 11:04 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

            it’s up to $602.75. About being surprised by Apple. Much. But that’s why I never approach it continuously with the same mind set. As for Cook. He is not ostentatious nor motivated by money per se. That’s my impression. Steve once commented about how some of his execs changed once the money starting really coming in, like how he was grossed out when they showed up at work with Rolls Royces and the stuff their wives were paying for or buying. So I think Cook will put the company and others before himself. Any such act actually further strengthens the positive perception that the company maintains in most peoples eyes. And that in itself puts more money in his pocket.

            • Kit

              Kit 1:25 pm on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

              I think you are right about Cook. I didn’t mean to imply that he wouldn’t do right by the company, only to say that he could hardly be expected to work against his own interests.

              Oh well, color me mildly surprised. I thought the dividend would be bigger, and did not see the stock buyback (which doesn’t seem like a huge deal if I am reading it correctly).

            • Nicu

              Nicu 1:29 pm on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

              Tim refused to take dividend on un-vested shares as everybody else. So I think he cannot be accused of anything. The buyback is exclusively to keep dilution from stock compensation in check.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:52 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

      “An ongoing dividend and/or special dividend or share buyback signals a new phase for Apple, one of less rapid, but still above-peer growth and margins.” – Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital

      Why do they have to be so stupid? They squealed for years to get some of that cash back, and when they get it, they bite the hand that feeds them. I really hope Cook and Apple whips them good in a few hours (I’m equally happy with a huge drop or a huge gap up, only flatness will make me sad :D ).

      • Zee

        Zee 11:25 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

        If it drops. You’ll buy back in? If it gaps up. You’ll short it? If it goes sideways. Maybe again for something like 6 months. Whatever. As long as they keep it interesting for us.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 11:50 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

          I have many calls in the money and quite a lot of cash. So if it drops I load up with some “cheap” 1 or 2-year calls. It it goes up, I sell the spread (increase the strike of my calls) for a much better price than my incremental algorithm (usually I get around $6.6 for $10 spread).

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:02 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

      There are also some other far fetched possibilities: get into manufacturing, either because they are ready to revolutionize this with automatic production lines, protect from international instabilities and work conditions scandals. Announce they will become a bank and introduce a payment system – unfortunately this would contradict most things Apple, to announce strategy and products before their time.

      Any other crazy ideas, guys?

      • Zee

        Zee 11:10 am on March 19, 2012 61 days ago

        Those ideas are not exactly crazy. But if Tim Cook said he was a women trapped in a man’s body. That’d be different if not crazy.

  • 1
    Nicu

    Nicu 10:12 pm on March 1, 2012 - 79 days ago

    “One of the more difficult things you human investors have to deal with is how your own heuristics, biases and cognitive deficits impact your views. It is how you are wired, a flaw in your wetware, and it consistently trips up your results.”

    SOURCE:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/the-impact-of-bias-investors-economists-analysts/

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 2:16 am on March 2, 2012 79 days ago

      Funny, I was about to post the very same article.

  • 8
    Nicu

    Nicu 2:59 pm on February 27, 2012 - 82 days ago

    Clueless baby thief CEO

    “With today’s ruling, Googlorola’s strategy has failed even before the companies have formally merged. This is such a major blow to Google’s patent strategy that, from a mere shareholder value point of view, it should now give serious consideration to the possibility of coughing up the $2.5 billion break-up fee agreed upon with MMI’s board of directors and walk out on this deal. After all, that $2.5 billion payment would be an affordable subsidy for the only totally Google-aligned company among the major handset makers. But in all likelihood, Google will nevertheless try to close the deal, if only to avoid a colossal embarrassment for its CEO and other decision-makers.”

    SOURCE:
    http://fosspatents.blogspot.com/2012/02/motorola-cant-enforce-standard.html

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:14 am on February 29, 2012 80 days ago

      • Zee

        Zee 9:25 am on February 29, 2012 80 days ago

        “The future of tech is mobile.”

        I noticed Apple’s online store has stopped carrying or selling a lot of non Apple paraphernalia like cameras, video cameras, music keyboards, speakers, scanners, printers etc..

        • Zee

          Zee 9:40 am on February 29, 2012 80 days ago

          AAPL $540.10 in A.H. Trading!

          • Zee

            Zee 2:49 pm on February 29, 2012 80 days ago

            on GOOF: google fin.; Apple’s int. ownership is up to 71% from 70, today.

            Shoobeedoobeedoo…

            • Nicu

              Nicu 3:14 pm on February 29, 2012 80 days ago

              not only this is a rounded number, but inst. own. is released only every 3 months here, with 1.5 months delay no less
              http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/institutional-holdings

              as you can see, data is “up to date”, end of 2011
              inst. disclose those numbers to SEC and they hide it to the best of their ability for as long as possible, I doubt goog has better data unless thay are doing something illegal

    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:59 pm on March 1, 2012 79 days ago

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:42 am on March 2, 2012 78 days ago

      Even worse for Samsung, Apple does not use their patented tech
      http://www.nasdaq.com/article/samsung-electronics-loses-patent-battle-against-apple-in-germany-20120302-00084

      Once Apple stops this BS standard essential patents barrage, it will fight back vigorously with their real patents, many of such patents on multi-touch have been granted recently. I am ready to bet Apple used the court battle experience to formulate those in the right way.

      The coup de grâce will come from the EU antitrust against those FRAND abusers. Google will have a very hard time digesting the lead ball they are struggling to swallow now (MMI). It may actually sink them, if their ads revenue stagnates (for now growth is slowing), margins decrease (they already do), extra costs from MMI operations and fines, and public perception starts to realize “don’t be evil” is needed only by a company that actually is from heat to toes (privacy, stolen IP, FRAND abuser etc.).

      • Nicu

        Nicu 10:02 am on March 2, 2012 78 days ago

        It seems Samsung also had a positive result in another trial for slide to unlock. They have escaped for now, much more stolen stuff to be judged this year.

  • Nicu 8:25 am on February 26, 2012 - 83 days ago

    Nicu

    Apple has larger market cap than MSFT, INTC, HPQ and DELL combined :)

     

  • Nicu 7:42 pm on February 23, 2012 - 86 days ago

    3
    Nicu

    new attempt on $35; shorts are just too scared so they will give anything they have in this battle

     
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