http://www.macworld.com/article/164503/2011/12/macalope_same_time_next_year.html#lsrc.rss_main
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Here we go again…..
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11355084/1/putting-a-future-value-on-apple.html
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Upcoming elections don’t bode well for current leaders….
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The premise of the stock market today is therefore that being innovative in technology is meaningless. Innovations are valuable but there is no such thing as an innovation process.
http://www.asymco.com/2011/11/21/is-innovation-valuable/
Has Horace hit this thing on the head?
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conshmillo
Everything in life is cyclical. And as long it is there is an opportunity. Same as with other cycles, this innovation cycles have certain rhythm and can be leveraged. I am pretty sure these “Apple innovation cycles” can be mapped. Rest is the same as with technical or fundamental based trading. Lighten your positions in up cycles when price is tearing the roof and reload when cycle is down and weak.
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Nicu
I read this earlier yesterday and I liked it a lot. Apple is undervalued even when the price of innovation is zero, only from their future sales of present products.
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Bunratty
It is curious that disruptive technologies can be so quickly discounted by WS analysts because of almost immediate copy-cat reflexes. In Apple’s case, it seems that long term corporate management also suffers poor prognostication. I think AAPL’s shrinking P/E results from this double whammy.
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Anyone know when AAPL 2014 options will be on deck?
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Nicu
We are waiting for the same thing. I asked the exact same question here a few days ago but it seems nobody has any information.
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Bunratty
Thanks, Nicu. BTW, nice job topping PED’s amateur/pro scoresheet; and for today’s optimistic article!
A bientôt
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Nicu
I have just checked and if my trading platform (ETrade) is correct, Jan options were issued around 15 September. That holds true for 2012 and 2013 options. I will probably go with some extra 2013 options as I do not want to miss the eventual iPhone 5 / “nano” announcement bump. Or I could just buy some cheap Oct calls to “protect” against the bump until I can get my hands on 2014 options.
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Bunratty
Just back. Ok, so, around Sept 15 for 2014 options….thanks!
My regards to the City of Light!
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Nicu
in Nov $440 C @ $9.85
in Jan 2013 $550 C @ $14.69-
Nicu
improved Nov $440 C to $435 C @ $1.2
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Nicu
improved Nov $435 C to $430 C @ $1.25
improved Jan ’13 $550 C to $530 C @ $3.3funded part of that + extra cash by replacing Jan ’12 $350 C to $360 C for $6.71 credit
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Bunratty
WEnt to cash last Monday….fearing ‘the week ahead’! Hedging that AAPL might run up a little next week before heading back to pre-earnings levels. Bought Jan 13 $300.
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Bunratty
@116
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Nicu
those are some expensive options
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Bunratty
feel more comfortable with deepITM LEAPS, esp. in this climate
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Bunratty
in Jan 13 $300 C @ $110.80 (earlier today)
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Nicu
AAPL 2014 options are available; however, only strikes “near” the money are proposed ($330 – $430)
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Nicu
new strikes up to $580
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conshmillo 12:36 am on December 23, 2011 149 days ago Reply
I am not big at earnings estimates, but what I don’t understand is how someone can say without any reasoning whatsoever that over the next five years, Apple’s growth rate will not come close to 70%. I do not know either way, but someone just pulls that assumption out of their ass and then bases rest of the calculations on it. What if Apple takes 20% of Microsoft business in next five years. What if Google’s Android ends up as Blackberry. What if every family in 2016 will have something called smart TV and Apple will have 40% of that market. All hypotheticals, but point is how someone knows there will not be 70% growth for Apple. And I’m not eve saying it will.
rastard 1:01 am on December 23, 2011 149 days ago Reply
Well, the investors amongst us want people to listen to this tool, so that we get the opportunity to buy more AAPL at $300.
Just out of curiosity, do you have the same problem with people who assert over the next 5 years, Apple *will* have 70% growth?
Bunratty 2:14 am on December 23, 2011 149 days ago Reply
There are several well-informed individuals who think such a growth rate can be sustained. It is the WS analysts who simply cannot get their heads around this disruption concept. To state that an ‘ideal’ entry point for AAPL to be around 300 (with a tacit suggestion that the stock price will drop 25% any time soon) is puerile. To throw out a 10% growth rate in such a cowboy fashion is inept.
conshmillo 2:53 am on December 23, 2011 149 days ago Reply
No, and here is why. Althought I do not sit on anything for 5 years, I base my shorter term decisions on technicals. That is you take data for most recent past, any data, do moving average on them and then you can estimate based on the result what’s going on. In this instance, I would like to see what at the minimum 5 data points for growth are (one for each year). If toward the last data point compared to previous ones tendency is decrease, I would find out how much this decreasing tendency perceptually is compared to previous years. If I saw decreasing tendency over past few most recent data point I could see how much and base my prediction for next year on that. This guy didn’t do any of that. He just pulled the number out of his ass.
Nicu 9:06 am on December 23, 2011 148 days ago Reply
I analyzed exactly this perception problem and made a 5 year prediction here
http://seekingalpha.com/article/315207-apple-analysts-perpetually-clueless