Stock opened up $14, Feb $620 calls were up $2, delta of 14%, calculated delta was 88% at the open. Currently Stock is up $7.86 and bid on the $620 call is $1.40 under yesterday’s last trade.
So the option market is telling us that GOOG will be under $620 in a month, do you believe that?
seems we’re certain to see $300 before earnings, but is it today or next Tuesday?
(I’m betting on breaking $300 this week, touching $306, closing at $300 for the week.)
Nah … 300 ? … Not today … AAPL failed to get back above 296.50… I see a potential bearish MACD cross-over which may pull it back to slightly below 294 and close the up-gap since yesterday…
I am not trading to day… Just don’t feel comfortable above $295 …
There seems to be a skew towards 300… But my gut-feeling says no…
300 is just too significant as a psychological barrier to be broken with light volume…
But I am fairly optimistic that it be broken through after Earnings are announced on the 18th…
.
@caruso2323
We’ll see… $300 today would be a stretch, price seems to want to stay above 297 since volume picked up at 2:30 (I assume folks trading on the WinPhone non-event).
At the moment, the daily MACD is crossing from below the signal in a “bullish” pattern (though RSI and Stochatics are both “over bought”), which MACD are you watching?
AAPL held very well :
1) New ATH
2) New ATH close
3) Its low was highest
As for that MACD potential bearish cross-X it was on my 5 minutes chart… But it levelled-off 
To-day’s candlestick looks slightly bearish with the close sitting on top of the close…
I think that by Wednesday , we should have a better idea where AAPL is heading…
So far, the indices remain slightly bullish with VIX getting under 20…
Maybe tomorrow AAPL gets a chance to “Kiss” 300 … Just as a Hurray
at 3:00pm it spiked 4%. I don’t see any news.
I’ve got Nov. $29 calls I put on after they tanked post-earnings, which are now actually worth something. Question is will this go on ?
Interesting, it just hit the single-stock circuit breaker. I thought those came in at 10% changes…
I guess it’s this story http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/07/microsoft-and-adobe-chiefs-meet-to-discuss-partnerships/ though I don’t see it really justifying a 10% move (but I’ll take the $ anyways).
Hee, hee, put my calls up with a $1.6 limit and just missed the high ($1.63) made $1.05!
Looks like the stock is falling back to earth as the lemmings realize that Adobe and MS meeting isn’t really big news…
It would be silly for MS or Apple to buy Adobe. But hey, who said Steve Ballmer wasn’t silly?
Steve Ballmer “I like our strategy, I like it a lot”
The excitement of Adobe and Microsoft joining forces is comparable to watching NASCAR just to enjoy the carnage.
“No way, you mean we could make apps even more bloated?!”
“Dude, we can totally make it bigger and slower and more expensive… Watch… this…”
MS always tries to buy people, especially when it has an affect on Apple (lots of high profile Mac tools like Photoshop would be under their control).
Most likely it would also mean that they could hold Android devices for ransom on flash or something pointless like that. The only person worse at buying and destroying companies is Oracle.
I was reading an article on how MS and Adobe could slow advancement in software for the Mac. It is such a waste of time and resources working to hinder other companies. Their products would be so much better if they would just concentrate all of that energy in their own company.
possible reason for drop? I guess we’ll see, rumors are such fun things…
Dell’s going to bring out a sub-par tablet, some time next year, and we’re off 10 bucks? Proves that idiots rule the market…
gold and euro went crazy this morning. GDP report signs?
@conshmillo
Don’t think GDP signs … Sounds like a reaction to deflation warned by the fed’s
The Tim Cook rumors were clearly a load of you know what. This is clearly evidence of manipulation by the big guys. Regardless of the validity of Tuesday’s selloff, I still think that Apple was overpriced and that it was just looking for a reason to tank. Despite what others may think, I think that this sort of manipulation keeps AAPL healthy – lately the stock has risen too much too fast and while the long’s love it, there is no way that anybody can make any money on this stock if it doesn’t give at least a nod towards the folks trying to short it. In my mind, these nasty and clearly false rumors do serve a good purpose in the end. They give AAPL a much needed break and they give it some room to breath as it moves further upwards. We all want to see AAPL move higher, but in the end I think we are all better off with this sort of manipulation than without it. I for one was happy to see a buy-in at the mid 280′s after selling some shares in the low 290′s.
Its bizarre, then at 12:27 someone drops 1.1M shares on the market, apparently after the announcement that Tim Cook IS NOT leaving Apple. This is a truly weird day.
WOW! What the hell! Crazy day. All those rumors are pure manipulation
What do quick drops like this usually indicate? It appears to be folks leaving the stock quickly, but of course other folks are buying in nearly as quickly too, otherwise they would be spikes up or continued up or down.
Whats the general common wisdom in tech analysis?
@jpwatkins
The trade was running at about 100K shares per minute up to 12:27 where it spiked to 1.1M and the stock dropped from 287.88 to 282.27 (1.9%). This sort of trade (dumping a huge block all at once, apparently at market) doesn’t indicate a “rational investor” particularly at that time of day. Mornings and evenings and surrounding news events large volumes are expected. This one didn’t have any real purpose. You’ll note that whom ever it was took 282.27 for some of those shares, where if the order had been feed more slowly into the market he’d probably been able to keep the price over 286, and still get out. This has the hallmarks of some sort of panic or “message sending”.
Institutional buying/selling?
@jpwatkins
If everything is overbought as it is now, over reactions are easier to generate. Looks like Cook’s rumor was good enough catalyst for crazy over reaction.
@jpwatkins
Not sure most institutional sellers would dump a million shares at market, i’d hope they’re smarter than that…
Unless your goal is to sell at the top, and the best way to do that is make sure that there is a lot of fear in the air, causing the stock to drop right after you sell.
In which case, selling it all at once accomplishes your goal.
@sworoc
Well that would work fine for a small holder (upto a couple of thousand shares) but a million shares will certainly cause a significant drop in price, there’s not that many at, or near, market price orders available, so if you pulse enough shares to eat up all the bids, you’re going to fall through a lot of current bids (some long forgotten stops) and tank the stock. (which this did).
If you are interested in getting “best” price for your shares, feed in the orders, over several minutes (10 minutes at 100K shares would be about twice the underlying volume, but within the flow of trading, and not shock the price (as much)).
All this assumes that there’s not some reason for everyone to sell, in which case, getting your 1M shares out first does have an advantage.
conshmillo has been pointing out the current overbought position of AAPL, which got “worse” today on an RSI basis (78 vs. 77.6 yesterday), and stochastics over 80, Williams %R at -10.3 (down from -1.5 yesterday). Now these indicators (stochastic and williams) have been “overbought” for almost 2 weeks, and Apple has, recently, been overbought for as much as a month (~2/26-~3/16, and ~3/22-~4/19) so this condition could go on for a while. Also note that all the trend indicators show strength in the trend (MACD, ADX, Williams Accum/Dist) which is counter to a reversal.
However today we got a doji candlestick pattern, indicating “indecision” with a long upper tail, indicating that selling pressure won the day after a long fight. Combined with the 2 strong white candles before it (Thursday and Monday) (Friday was triple witching, so somewhat anomalous, if you take out the first 10 minutes of trading, the stock did nothing), would indicate that a reversal may be near, much like the doji indicating reversal from a downtrend on 8/27 (that doji had a long lower tail following a relatively large black candle).
Tomorrow we’ll see.
(fully out of my long AAPL positions at 285 today, opened an October 270 put at $3)
it is still “worse” … lol
Yes, “worse and worse” my short is looking pretty wrong at the moment. We’ll see. I have made some money playing the intraday moves, takes some of the sting off of the current losses on the short (which I doubled down on when the put went to 2.40 so my average cost is 2.70). I’m pretty impressed with Apple today (even though its beating me up). Certainly trying to test 290 by the end of the week…
I think Friday is going to be profit taking day.. I’m holding on til then.
There must be some news we don’t know about but those that are a little bit more free than we are in these free markets do know about. RIMM was bucking the downtrend as well.
Let’s not forget weeklies are in the play. Maybe they are pinning it to 290. Although at these levels I would expect them to go for 280.
@conshmillo
agree … we are kept in the dark… Just too odd … EXTREMELY FISHY
Guys … Connect the dots :
1) Look at to-day’s drop at MSFT
2) Look At AAPL’s today’s gains
I believe that it is not about iOs … GOOG would have sunk too …
I suspect it is about the CPU’s … Yes … Apple does manufacture “Trucks” ! …
But way better “Trucks” …
Trucks that may be used in farms ! … Like AAPL’S Virginia’s iTunes Lala farm …
Some time ago I read about the mac mini server being the most cost effective solution for the “industry” to support iPhones … I recall a figure of $11K versus 3 times more using a Win server …
If you were Steve Jobs … Would you not have chosen that “Mac Mini” server ?
Just why did Apple made this device SLIMMER, Greener in terms of power consumptions …
Do you think that they have made all those changes for mac fans like myself ? Gotta be kidding : such a “low margin” product ? … The legend about Mac Minis is that they were meant to STFU investors about some “cheap” CPU … Us, mac fans were shitting in our pants about AAPL discontinuing Mac Minis ! …
maybe it is not about the Mac Mini’s … But that new boy Analyst in town suggested that some 3M macBooks may get sold … !!!!!!!!… Most non ii-literate people on planet earth know that at best AAPL sells 3M CPU’s … But this guy comes out from nowhere and talks to us about MacBooks ! …
I don’t know what to think … Is he a punk ? … Or is he passing a somewhat real but distorted message ?
Do you think it is about a VERIZON iPhone for “early 2011″ ? : B.S. We have heard that at least 10 times before… Only VZ used to go upon such rumours… Did it go up today ? … I did not even bother to look at it …
Could it be about something HUGE ? …
Don’t know … What I know is this : I have not seen AAPL hitting an ATH so TENACIOUSLY or STRONGLY …
i don’t think this is a “Short Squeeze” either … They usually cover within 36 hours … lol
Not sure I followed you — are you suggesting that Apple’s new data center will be comprised of Mac Mini servers? (and did they decide on Virginia over North Carolina?)
Do large data centers (i.e. the size of the one Apple is rumored to be constructing) actually use Windows servers? I was under the impression that all the biggies used Linux server systems (well, aside from Microsoft’s own data centers)…
Yes … But how about you sharing your thoughts about that … ?
The last I heard was GOOG was to use AAPL / Linux servers …
What CPU’s would AAPL use … according to you …
@rastard
Sorry I meant Carolina …
I guess i prefer Virginia over Carolina… Even the northern one … lol
@rastard
Got a question for you …
Let us just pretend that Apple use mac mini’s instead of win / Linux CPU’S …
1) How would they report their sales to a company called “Apple” ?
2) How you they report the expensed part of its hardware ?
When I posted that theory … Some guy “who thinks being capable of thinking out of thee box” like me posted that link :
http://macminicloud.net/
What is in your box ?
What is outside it Rastard ?
Ever since you followed AAPL trading … Did you ever witnessed it being so tenacious while breaking out ATH even during AH ? …
Care to share with us your speculation ?
Hmmm looks like I spoke too early … :
Verizon Communications (VZ) Hits New High At 32.64 Despite A Lower Overall Market
Posted: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 12:57 PM EDT
Make font size smallerMake font size defaultMake font size larger
Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) hit a new 52-Week high of $32.64 so far today. Currently the stock is up $0.18 (0.56%) to $32.50 on 8,422,737 shares traded. Today’s high is up $6.51 from a 52-Week Low of $25.99. Verizon Communications stock has been showing support around $31.63 and resistance in the $32.85 range. Technical indicators for the stock are neutral and S&P gives VZ a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking. Verizon hits a new 52 week high despite a lower overall market. The DOW is currently down 0.2% on the day. If you are looking for a hedged play on VZ the stock seems like it could be a candidate for a November out-of-the-money bull-put credit spread below the 30 range. [ABR-Seven Summits Strategic Investments NewsBit
So VZis milking that rumor … Fack VZ !
there already reports that the datacenter combines hw from several vendors (like ibm and sun for example) but there is no chance in this world they are going to use minis (I know you have some kind of obsession with that computer) – xeon processors are much better when you compare cost/power usage/computing power and servers are made to be manageable at industrial scale, minis have a nice aluminum case which is useless in a data center, 2.5″ hard drives which are slower, more expensive and with smaller capacity, no need for graphics cards, rack mounting and the list can go on and on … I assume you know Apple also builds and sells servers, right ?
http://www.apple.com/xserve/
They probably use that (or better) extensively, but minis are not for that, is like using motorcycles instead of trucks to carry freight because they have a higher mpg (or are cheaper per unit)
@nicu
Are you talking about that beast @ $3,600
http://store.apple.com/us_smb_78313/configure/Z0GM?mco=MTM3NTk3Nzk
If according to you, Xeon is so great … Why is it not so popular in the industry ? …
Have you ever been “surprised” by AAPL’s desktop sales in the recent past (I mean before the advent of the new iMac’s” ? … If it is not so great for the rest of the industry, what makes you think that it would be great for Apple ?
I acknowledge the fact that I am “obssessed”about my mac mini’s … Just want to compare them with your Xeons … lol
@nicu
Hey … Nicu … I never suggested that those mac minis be used with internal 2.5″ HD !…
Apple could just STRIP them ! …
Just connect a male-to-female SATA cable into the Hard Disk-less mac mini , and connect the other female side to a 10.7K HD or a 7.2K 2Tb hard disk ! … Even a MacDonald server like me can do that … BTW Mac Mini’s can accommodate 8GB memory … Care to compare it with Xeon ? What about Watts ? Per Giga flop processing ?…
lol
@nicu
Are you talking about this :
Two 2.26GHz Quad-Core Intel Xeon @ $3,599.00 ?
How about Two : 2.4GHz or 2.66GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor… @ $699.00 * 2 =1400
(including the 320 GB internal 2.5′ HD) … Sell them to me for $160 = 1400-160 = $1240
So Nicu … What is speedier : a Xeon quad-core 2.26 GHz or TWO MacMini clients to a Mac Mini server both operating @ 2.4GHz or 2.66GHz ??? Fire-Wired 800 on a network basis ?
at one-third the price of your Xeon of course
——————————————–
One 2.26GHz Quad-Core Intel Xeon “Nehalem” processor Two 2.26GHz Quad-Core Intel Xeon
“Nehalem” processors
3GB memory 3GB memory
160GB 7200-rpm Serial ATA drive module1 160GB 7200-rpm Serial ATA drive module1
Mac OS X Server v10.6 Snow Leopard Mac OS X Server v10.6 Snow Leopard
Ships: Within 24hrs Ships: 2-4 business days
Free Shipping Free Shipping
$2,999.00
gime numbers nicu
http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2010/09/01/is-the-idatacenter-ready-for-its-close-up/
Apple says that its “data center environment consists of MacOS X, IBM/AIX, Linux and SUN/Solaris systems.”
nicu are you telling me that AAPL is selling “motorcycles” to the business world ?
Listen, maybe you have a point… Maybe the Mac Mini is meant for “PME’s” … Petites moyennes enterprises…
But hey … Were not the imac beating the pros’s at one point in time ? …
Please do sub-stanciate your Xeon superiority over my BELOVED mac Mini …
Just remember : I am an Engineer … not a Mathematician
So sharpen up your pencil !
Hey, where are you from, Caruso, throwing that French around…
@mikeinmontreal
In Montreal like you Mike … Quebec je me souviens
Cool
Like the fall weather we’re having….
Looks like the economists are saying our economy is going to slow down over the next year or so….hopefully the dollar will go down a bit; would be a nice gain from holding US stock/cash….
@mikeinmontreal
Hey Mike ! … I don’t mind so much the Fall season here …
But just forget about Winter ! … I am headed “El South√©” …
Yup ! …
Those MF TD Canada trust want to increase by 0.5% my interest Mortgage for 12 months using 3.0% … Damn ! Have they not heard about DEFLATION just south ?
OK … maybe we have higher inflation here … But did you check the price of coffee ? it is up by 250% , what about Bread ? … If we were in Egypt I can assure you there would be RIOTS …
This begs a question : Do our neighbours pay less for Coffee or bread ?
BTW these are my main engridients … much like my Mac Mini’s … lol
What about us paying the highest WW telecom fees for 3 gs ! … Someone better investigate DOC … A 3 year contract for an iPhone 4 g not available before 1 mo to 2 mo provided you pay a deposit of $50 ? WTF ? … Not even unlimited ! … $50 /mo for 5 GB ? Fack !
Did you notice that Tax loopHole … ?
We get taxed on capital gains US $ converted to Ca $ … say at 1.02
In a few years from now (assuming the americans don’t become japanese and be burdened by DEFLATION) if the US rises to 1.42 : We won’t get taxed on that 40% gain ! …
@caruso2323
it’s not even funny, I fire a bullet and you get 10 for that one 
if you followed Apple’s philosophy, more important than the upfront cost is TCO, and they are not going to take their own minis and take the HDD out and put some cables … if they wanted the cheapest possible, they would order some motherboards with 2 cheap processors in them and put together a bunch of them – the important thing in the datacenter is reliability, manageability and operating costs, not the upfront cost (and in this case the time to completion is also very important)
xeons are really workhorses that have better energy efficiency and they pack much more power in the same space; xserve are ready to deploy in racks and solutions for power and networking are already on the market
what you propose sounds more like google, where everything will be in beta until the end of times
I just changed my mortgage with BMO. Went from prime + .5 to prime – .65. 3 month penalty but good savings for 3.5 years. Good thing our housing market is strong. I don’t mind capital gains. I have enough losses from the early 2000s. I’m with Fido. Surprisingly, I got a decent deal.
I sold my october 250′s for a nice 4.25 profit yesterday, purchased Sept 260 puts on the open. Expect to make a little of money today. Buying back on the bull side at the close today.
I’m out at 262.4, no telling what will happen tomorrow on the 9/11 anniversary.
I’m sure I will get back in if things look good next week.
I’m waiting for a pullback. Out at 264
I say 263 close. Sold some calls this week to have cash in case they take her down again. 6 weeks until Earnings and no catalysts for the stock and still too many problems globally in an economic sense. Plus they need to take profits on that quick 235-265 run. But who knows markets may take off, taking Apple with it.
Trouble is that daily and weekly technical indicators are in contradiction. That’s why I said this week markets will end up in wash. Tough to make good overnight trades in non directional market. On weekly basis, that is next week, I expect markets to pull back a little but in monthly view (next 4 weeks), I believe we’ll still go higher. At least that’s what it looks like it to me technically today.
I wanted to go negative today already, to set myself up for next week, but intraday DIA/DJIA were still showing strength and possible breakout higher before the close. Which is pushing AAPL higher too. So one hour before Friday’s close AAPL has equal probability to be going after 260 as it has going after 270. But looking at AAPL/DIA lag though, AAPL is trailing, not leading the DJIA, so I guess those who have money to move the markets were/are shooting for 260 as a target into the close.
Andy Zaky went bullish and then immediately went bearish earlier in the week…
First by posting:
Apple headed straight to $300
and then:
Surging Put-to-Call Ratio Today (3-to-1) on the Indices
He updated his original article with the following para:
“Just as I start to get bullish on equities, we see a 3-1 put to call ratio on the CPCI. That is extraordinarily bearish. The facts changed, so do I. No longer long Apple, and I’m back in cash. Be careful. It doesn’t mean everything is going to hell in a hand basket, but it does suggest people should be very cautious. Lets see how this plays out over the next few trading sessions. If options normalize after some selling, I may get long again.
Disclosure: All cash.”
Andy is very positive about Apple just not so much about the market.
Well, that didn’t go as I expected. My 260 puts went profitable at the start and then bounced around. Got out for what I paid (lost the transaction costs). But I didn’t pull the trigger on any additional long positions. After yesterday’s major fade at the close, I expected that to continue down to 260 range, it didn’t happen. By 2:00 I sat waiting for the “typical” late day friday swoon and it just didn’t come in. Put’s kept falling (even with the underlying falling) which I’m taking as a bullish sign for next week,
I “feel” that we’ll see a good week next week, but with the market not acting as I’d expected I second guessed myself out of putting $ at risk.
Zaky added another post on his blog with respect to that Put-Call activity….
in Wait and See mode. Given the overall sentiment, and recent habit of selling off after AAPL news. It looks like tomorrow will be a spike and sell day. Much like the iPhone antenna press day. Price jumps on “news” and then sells off the next week.
Except that aapl typically rallies into the event. This time it hasn’t budged (yet). I’m willing to wager aapl pops after the event for the first time given the wait and see mode
@hocm12
Yes, they typically rally into events, which concerns me greatly about tomorrow. The “sell on news” sentiment is strong these days, so without the pre-event rally, I’m worried.
AAPL was pushing all day long yesterday. It just couldn’t overcome what market was doing after personal income data. If DJIA just stayed at 1045 yesterday and didn’t gain or lose a point, AAPL would be today 247-250.
I’m just waiting for it to reclaim 10 day MA at 244.30, then hopefully push to 250 tomorrow
Crossing 245.75 should get us airborne.
who knows … maybe it will buy on the news … lol
I just watched last year’s Keynote (sep 09) and Steve announced 30 million iPhones to date. So there should be an iPad and iPhone announcement tomorrow. Good = Rally, Bad = Freefall. Place your bets. I believe there is a reason the event is earlier this year though I have no idea why. Last year was not a major event with the exception of Steve coming back to Apple.
the economy.
says UBS UBS’s retail PC channel checks indicates that the back-to-school season continues to be modest but that Apple is having another strong season and that iPad supply constraints continue to ease.
Seems like another reason to sell-off AAPL!
conshmillo 8:47 pm on January 21, 2011 380 days ago Reply
Schmidt Plans To Sell More Than Half Million Google Shares
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110121-711139.html
carlmuck 9:00 pm on January 21, 2011 380 days ago Reply
Yeah, but that doesn’t account for the early option action. Though it looks like it (the early options pricing) was accurate for the day. For some insider selling says something, I’m more interested in insider purchases. Selling can be for lots of reasons, buying indicates real belief in the company.
I’ve been pretty well spanked today. I don’t see it holding for long, the forward PE is at only 18. I’m hoping for a better week next week.