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  • 1
    caruso2323

    caruso2323 12:27 pm on August 28, 2010 - 630 days ago

    Just as we thought that the iPod is a dead end product…
    September 1 , may prove to be be herald as the 1984 for Apple ! …

    Could it be that Apple is up to turning this product mix into a 50% – 70% growth ? as it once was ? … It is hard to believe …. But it may not be impossible ! …

    1) The next iPad may not be the 7″ rumoured product… For it might be just a 3.5″ iPad … Just a refreshed iPod Touch but equipped with 3 g … Just as the 9.7″ iPad but with at least one camera … and to me if there is just ONE camera I hope that it would be front-end to give leverage the FaceTime feature … It may be offered for just $399 … Not necessarily with Retina display…

    While keeping the Wi-Fi iPod tOuch version with a camera for maybe $249 Not necessarily with Retina display

    That newest iPod Touch could have an INCREDIBLE success ! … Because a potential iPod 3g could be that iPhone nano everyone was dreaming of… and it could come in CDMA flavour as well… Paving the way for an iPhone CDMA aimed at Sprint and T mobile.

    I suspect that there is a HUGE market for an iPod Touch 3g / CDMA … MOST owners of a cell phones would want one … Specifically those OCCASIONAL users who cannot afford the $100 + / month subscription, and who would go for a $30-$35 / month and would use VOIP to place phone calls wherever Wi-Fi is not available … Not sure though if $399 is too high maybe a $200 subsidy could help bringing it down to $199 with a one-year contract (as opposed to 2 years with a $400 subsidy)

    2) The iPod Nano could be offered in two versions :
    - That 1.7″ screen sized , without the wheel , while keeping the camera
    - Same as above but offered as “wrist watch” See the article about that in the 9 to 5 mac.com

    3) The iPod Shuffle could be replaced by a pair of Glasses ! …
    - S the non iPod Touches could become “wearable” devices

    Does that sounds Science-Fiction ? …
    What if it becomes real ? … What would be the impact of such innovations ?

    I bet my shirt that AAPL could sell over 100M / year of such devices now that it has an international reach that is over 100% the current unit sales… So add to that the increased ASP’s associated with the 3g version of an iPod Touch …

    But all that being said, and assuming that such a science fiction scenario unfolds : Would the market recognize the impact of such new innovations ?

    Let’s see what will be announced on Sep 1 … It may be more than just a guitar !

     
    • Zee

      Zee 11:00 pm on August 28, 2010 630 days ago

      “Paving the way for an iPhone CDMA aimed at Sprint and T Mobile.”
      —T Mobile is GSM.

      If your curious what might evolve, do a Google search for : hacking the iPod Touch in China … there’s something there for less than 60 bucks that turns a jail broken iPod Touch into a phone … it’s called the Apple Peel and it also adds a Sim Card Slot and Extra Battery, looks sort of like an Otter Box … I’m not an expert on it. I just did a cursory look because I remembered some of their clever solutions. May take advantage of things like Google offering Free Voip till the end of the year…

      Possibly the iPod Touch may also air out features we might expect to see on future iPads because SJ said the next horizon was to make the iPad capable of producing content.

      Cheers.

  • 3
    caruso2323

    caruso2323 9:14 am on August 27, 2010 - 631 days ago

    ttp://www.thestreet.com/story/10845847/1/voip-smartphone-revolution-is-coming.html

    This article suggests that 100M iPodT/Q could be sold per quarter if Apple was to equip them with WiMax capabilities, but at the cost of losing iPhone business…

    I would hate to see AAPL losing (along with the rest of SmartPhone makers) iPhone revenues… But what if that was inevitable ? … What if after transiting from the iPod lucrative business into iPhone, do the reverse … and transit from the iPhone business back into iPod with a heavy skew on iPodTouchs …

    If my memory is right AAPL was selling about 60 Millions iPods / year …
    400 Millions iPod Touch’s would look nice …
    Over 5 years every one on planet earth would have an iPodTouch ! …
    Add to that the “Halo Effect” … Apple’s market share would surely grow from 3% to 30% … :)

     
    • carlmuck

      carlmuck 9:24 am on August 27, 2010 631 days ago

      I think iPod numbers have been trailing off recently to just under 10 M/qtr, so ~40M/yr.

      100M units/qtr is absurd, $100M of revenue/qtr from iPodT, might make sense.

      I don’t know who Anton is, but I’m not impressed with his “analysis” essentially he’s saying that Apple doesn’t have this product, and can’t (according to him) build it due to AT&T contract (to which I say bullshit, if AAPL can make $, they’ll make the product). But lets conjecture how much money there is to be made.

      Kind of silly

      (btw, your link just takes us back to this page…)

      • Nicu

        Nicu 10:22 am on August 27, 2010 631 days ago

        @carlmuck
        missing a “h” in the link, just copy it :) (Ô£øC, Ô£øV)

        • carlmuck

          carlmuck 10:58 am on August 27, 2010 631 days ago

          @nicu
          Yeah, the readable text is missing the “H”, but if you hover the link you’ll see “http://www.traderhood.com/2010/08/27/a-must-read-on-ipodtouch/” is the target of the link…

  • 11
    caruso2323

    caruso2323 8:18 am on August 19, 2010 - 639 days ago

    According to Ashuk Kumar (Analyst) Apple is on its way to resolve the Supply problem and predicts 14M iP4′s … !!! … (excluding iP 3gs) … Hmmmm Although he was first to suggest it may take till Sep 2010 for Apple to resolve the supply side, it sounds just too good to be true … :

    http://gigaom.com/2010/08/18/apple-catching-up-on-iphone-4-ipad%C2%A0production/

    So it would not be irrealistic to expect 11M-12M this coming quarter in iP4′s and iP 3 gs !…

    What is AAPL doing at 253 ? !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!…

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:37 am on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

      just waiting a bit more to kill Aug option holders :( (

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:09 am on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

      consch, strange error in this post, the title has no link from the main page

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 4:33 pm on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

        @nicu
        “consch, strange error in this post, the title has no link from the main page”

        I see it now, I’ll look into it.

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 9:15 am on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

      Will November options pop up after Aug expiration? I may be interested in acquiring some since the premiums are much lower now and we may get the post-earnings pop?

      • Nicu

        Nicu 9:31 am on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

        @mikeinmontreal
        I think Aug options were available only after June ~ expired and although the IV may be lower, the price will be high due to the time to expiration; AAPL is down (I think) so this will make up for the time premium

        however, as I got burned hard by options 1 month after earnings, I would advise you to choose Jan ’11 for extra risk margin and also because they are available now when AAPL is at $253, instead of Nov calls that will probably be available in one month :)

        all this being said, I strongly believe that earnings will blow everybody’s mind like never before (we may get $5 EPS if they manage to manufacture enough iPhones, iPads) – it will be hard to keep the stock down for 1 month (but there is always the “danger” that it will go to $270 in Sep so calls will be much more expensive then)

        and of course, we could have a broad market sharp drop so all this plans fall into the water, double dip beats $6 EPS hands down

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 9:18 am on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

      AAPL looks relatively strong this morning in the aftermath of the 500K unemployment claims…

      May it it has to do with :
      1) 130K iP4 pre-order in Korea
      2) China’s Unicom getting iP4′s as early as September 2010

      These two factors adds credibility to AAPL progress in resolving its supply shortcomings…

      What is also strange this morning is INTC buying out McAfee ! … An Anti-virus Software maker !… What the heck ? … McAfee getting boughtby MSFT might have made more sense !

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 10:17 am on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

      mike

      I am skeptical about a double dip… Although I don’t feel comfortable with the latest 2 unemployment claims, I still think this is related to back to school students quitting their jobs.

      Anyway… The September stats will be more telling about the direction of the US economy…

    • sworoc

      sworoc 11:05 am on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

      If anything, back to school means companies will be looking to replace summer interns with regular full and part time workers. Should see a fair amount of job opportunities, and retail likes to hire on more employees for the fall in preparation of the holiday season.

      While I don’t think consumer spending will go through the roof anytime soon, I also don’t see a major double dip coming unless there is some sort of fear in the news that makes people panic. For the most part we will probably just see more stagnant, even trading. Such a shame when AAPL is churning out record profits.

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 3:58 pm on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

      sworoc , agree …

      1) There are two months in employment : a) September’s b) January’s …

      2) Europe is doing fine even better than the U.S. as it does not have the housing foreclosure problems the U.S. has

      Last year, Way back in March 2009 I felt that a double dip would occur in the U.S. after avoiding a depression… To the best of my knowledge this has not been hapenning… The earlier estimates for unemployment ran up as high as 10%+ … It looks like unemployment at worst may run from 9.5% to 9.8%…

      I just hope I’m right !…

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 7:20 pm on August 19, 2010 639 days ago

      fixed

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 7:17 pm on September 23, 2010 604 days ago

      iP’s sales is again the wild card ! …

      1) Is it about 12M because of the supply problem that seems to have persisted all the way through the end of this current quarter ?

      2) Or could it be close to some 15M in my wishful thinking ?

      But there maybe other surprises :
      - Mac Sales way beyond the 3M …

      Hey Nicu ! … Beware not to mock the Mac Mini’s … As it is Apple’s secret weapon in increasing market share … Yup… NOT the macbooks … I repeat Mac Minis ! … Mark my words… That is the future for Streaming to mobile devices in a cloud wise fashion ! … The Mac Mini servers constitute the most cost effective for everyone (Except Nolavabo who likes to play video games with his Mac Pro)

      Also beware not to tease me about my obsession for my beloved Mac Min … lol … Because if you do I promise to encourage you going long with RIMM … lol !

      Do some Due Diligence and you may understand better :)

  • 1
    caruso2323

    caruso2323 12:26 pm on August 13, 2010 - 645 days ago

    My today response (to your comments) posted on the Google Financial board disappeared. Just wished to let you know my feelings are reciprocal, even though I disagree with your position about the cash reserves …

    I am hosting visitors this week-end starting this PM , so I won’t have the time to rewrite it to you here …

    Cheers and have a great week-end !

     
    • GotWake

      GotWake 9:33 pm on August 15, 2010 643 days ago

      Hey Caruso, I had seen your reply. It’s been one of those busy weekends.

  • 5
    caruso2323

    caruso2323 10:32 pm on August 12, 2010 - 646 days ago

    1) MSFT’s Bing

    2) New Players :

    - Facebook

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-seen-pulling-in-more-than-1-bln-in-sales-2010-08-12

    - Other Socializing start-ups in the making

    3) Mobile Search :

    - AAPL’s iAds :
    “Users who viewed Nissan’s Leaf electric car Apple iAd spent 90 seconds with the interactive advertisement — ten times longer than customers will spend with a traditional ad.

    Based on those figures, Nissan has been very happy with the initial performance of Apple’s iAd network, launched in July. The car maker spoke with the Los Angeles Times and revealed that people are five times more likely to click their interactive advertisement than they are a traditional online display ad.”

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/08/12/advertisers_developers_say_apples_iad_blows_away_competing_ads.html

    What are GOOG’s growth prospects in the search and Add revenues ?… Just how is it innovating Search ?

    Schmidt brags about 200K / day androids … How about bragging the accrued search revenues derived from them !… Schmidt was quite evasive about them…

    GOOG sounds to me like IBM when it got shafted by MSFT way back in in the 1980′s …
    Who is shafting GOOG :

    1) VZ
    2) GOOG
    3) All the Android SmartPhone makers

    1) and above 3) are getting a “Free Ride” …

    But there is no “Free Lunch” … Guess who will pay the Lunch … LOL …

    Your next guess might be “Guess Who is coming for Dinner” … Once GOOG pulls the plug on the “FreeBees” …

    SmartPhone Android makers are already having a civil war among themselves …
    Their ASP prices falling and margins hurt… Now here comes GOOG asking for a fair “contribution” so that it can continue developing its Droid mobile ailing platform to compete against Apple’s raising the ants ! and MSFT’s drive into mobile with W7 mobile… Not to mention HP’s platform… Not to mention CSCO entrance in the foray…

    GOOG is competing with MONEY makers ! … New players …
    They have been acting very much as playing catch-up …

    They sound like a Mother Theresa without the integrity of Mother Theresa …
    More like a company envisioning “Sharing the Wealth” among the poors … Where the poors get more time on their borrowed time by milking GOOG …

    At some point in time the milk production will drop … lol

     
    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 10:45 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      One more thing …

      GOOG will no longer benefit from head starts as Schmidt is no longer attending AAPL’s board meetings …To learn AAPL’s next BIG thing !…

      Steve Jobs did not need to attend GOOG’s board meetings to figure out that iAds could be a more effective Ad Vehicle …

      Apple is smartly sharing those revenues with its App developers ! … Is Google sharing its Ad revenues with the App developers ? How much revenues are they deriving from porting their softies to GOOG ? Will those developers launch their new softies on GOOG first ?

      With those 200K / day Droids : How long will it take for GOOG to surpass the 100M+ iOS platform
      Soon to be 150M … growing rapidly to 200M as an ESTABLISHED BASE !… ?

      • caruso2323

        caruso2323 10:52 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

        @caruso2323
        Here is how Motorolla one of the “successful” iPhone competitor is depicted in the REAL world :

        “The struggling mobile phone manufacturer Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT – News) reported strong second quarter 2010 results, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1 cent. The reported quarter‚Äôs earnings benefited from growing market traction for its 3G Android-based smartphones.

        Overall, the analysts‚Äô opinion remains positive on the stock, given the company‚Äôs excellent results.”

        http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Earnings-Scorecard-Motorola-zacks-1877419352.html?x=0&.v=1

      • caruso2323

        caruso2323 11:01 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

        @caruso2323
        Many MORE THINGS : But summarized as this : Just how can GOOG grow further without raising PRIVACY issues :

        Connecticut To Ask Google Inc. If Collected WiFi Data-Reuters
        Monday, 7 Jun 2010 11:22am EDT
        Reuters reported that Connecticut’s top prosecutor plans to call on Google Inc on Monday to say whether it had collected data from personal and business wireless networks without the owners’ permission. The Company last month acknowledged that the fleet of cars it uses to take photos of streets around the world for a three-dimensional mapping service had for several years been collecting information from open WiFi networks that could include e-mail messages and passwords. Australia’s attorney general on Sunday asked that country’s police to investigate whether Google had broken telecommunications privacy laws by collecting the WiFi data. Google said on Sunday it would cooperate with the Australia police investigation.

        Australia Police To Probe Google Inc. Over Possible Privacy Breach-DJ
        Sunday, 6 Jun 2010 06:47pm EDT
        Dow Jones reported that Australia has launched a police investigation into whether Google Inc. breached privacy laws in obtaining information for its Street View mapping service. It is the latest in a string of recent probes into the way Google Inc. collects personal data through wireless networks. Authorities in Germany, Spain and Italy last month said they were investigating Google Inc. and its Street View service, which uses camera-equipped vehicles to take street images and mark the location of Wi-Fi networks. Australian Attorney-General Robert McClelland referred public complaints about Google Inc.’s information-gathering practices to the Australian Federal Police for further investigation.

        Consumer Groups Call On FTC To Investigate Google Inc.’s Purchase of Invite Media
        Thursday, 3 Jun 2010 05:09pm EDT
        Google Inc. announced that Consumer Watchdog and the Center for Digital Democracy called on the Federal Trade Commission to investigate Google’s announced plan to buy Invite Media, a display advertising company, for around $70 million, saying the deal raises substantial competitive and privacy concerns.

        Canada Probes Google Inc. On Wireless Data Collection-Reuters
        Tuesday, 1 Jun 2010 05:53pm EDT
        Reuters reported that Canada has launched a probe into Google Inc. as legal problems escalate surrounding Google Inc.’s disclosure that it collected private data while taking photographs for its Street View product. Canadian Privacy Commissioner Jennifer Stoddart said that she was concerned about the privacy implications stemming from the collection of data from wireless networks in Canada, the United States and other countries.

        Google Inc. Facing At Least Three WiFi Data Lawsuits-DJ
        Tuesday, 25 May 2010 06:51pm EDT
        Dow Jones reported that Google Inc. has been hit with at least three lawsuits since the Internet giant acknowledged its Street View cars had accidentally collected private data from unsecured wireless networks. The claims, filed in Massachusetts, California and Oregon, were likely to contribute to the public-relations headache triggered by Google’s admission that vehicles it deployed to create its online mapping services had inadvertently gathered information about people’s web-site usage. One of the claims, filed in U.S. District Court in Massachusetts on behalf of a local Internet service provider and its customers, alleges Google violated federal and state privacy laws when its fleet of specially equipped vehicles accidentally recorded and stored fragments of Web pages and e-mail messages transmitted across people’s wireless networks.

        Carp Law Offices, LLC Files Class Action Suit Against Google Inc.
        Tuesday, 25 May 2010 12:35pm EDT
        Carp Law Offices, LLC, on behalf of Galaxy Internet Services, Inc and its wireless customers and WiFi users in Massachusetts, announced that it has initiated a class action law suit against Google Inc. The suit revolves around the capture and storage of WiFi information by Google’s street mapping team, who used cars equipped with sophisticated camera systems to help build Google maps, but also had covert ‘packet sniffing’ WiFi receivers to help gather data on WiFi users in violation of both federal privacy laws and Massachusetts new data privacy law that was recently enacted. Google has acknowledged that their Google Street View teams collected SSID’s and MAC addresses of WiFi systems it encountered in its travels across thirty three countries, and that it has stored the information pending the resolution of a Congressional investigation and pending lawsuits. According to Robert Carp of Carp Law Offices, LLC of Newton and Gloucester, Massachusetts, Google’s collection of data is nothing more than a further attempt to enhance their advertising capabilities. The complaint filed by Carp asks for class action certification, and for an injunction to prevent Google from destroying any of the data that could be potentially used for evidence in a class action trial in Federal court.

      • caruso2323

        caruso2323 11:09 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

        @caruso2323
        Is GOOG the “EVIL” that so many of you are believing it to be … ?

        A REAL EVIL grows its revenues AND PROFITS …
        That does not seem to be the case of GOOG !

        China once depicted the U.S. as being a “Paper Tiger” …
        Two decades latter, there seems to be some truth to that claim !…

        I think that GOOG is a “Paper Tiger”
        It won’t take 2 decades to unfold … I don’t give it more than two years !…

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 7:55 am on August 13, 2010 645 days ago

      Hmmm I forgot Baidu … and there are new comers copy-pasted from a today article :
      ”
      Get Free Stock Analysis By Email

      According to a very brief announcement from Xinhua News Agency, China Mobile and Xinhua are going to collaborate to launch a new search engine company in China. So, a company that has enjoyed a sizable market share virtually from the first day of operation is volunteering to challenge Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google”

      Google is going to have a very tough time to compete globally as more players go after the ad revenue ! …

  • caruso2323

    caruso2323 9:26 pm on August 12, 2010 - 646 days ago

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oracle-sues-google-for-patent-infringement-2010-08-12?siteid=yhoof

    more direct than AAPL’s Vs HTC…

     
  • 5
    caruso2323

    caruso2323 9:35 am on August 12, 2010 - 646 days ago

    is 2.7% …

    http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1421013

    This report also talks about iOS Vs Android … It is dis-concerning to see the trend of excluding iPads and iPodTouch’s from these stats … It would be fair to exclude them provided they get included somewhere … If Gartner was publishing stats for Tablets it would be OK, but it does not…

    iPodTouch’s constitute a UNIQUE category that does not deserve to be dumped in the mp3 player category as it is a mobile computing device that could even be confounded as a “Wi-Fi smartPhone” which might even be made into a “full-Fledged” 3g SmartPhone capable if that gadget rumoured to be launched in China for some $70…
    Can you imagine how many millions of iPodTouch’s might get sold JUST IN CHINA ? …
    I believe that iPodTouch’s will see an explosive growth in the September quarter, and through 2011…

    It is my opinion that Apple ought to create a second category for the iPod’s… Same as it treats CPU’s :

    - Portable CPU’s
    - DeskTop CPU’s

    I believe that Apple should report two categories :
    - Multi-media iPod’s (nano, etc…excluding the iPT)
    - Smart computing & Multimedia : iPodTouch’s

    It is not entirely Gartner’s fault if it is not including iPodT’s in its metrics, Apple should share the blame and correct this situation …

    But I expect Gartner to be more transparent about the iPad’s either that it includes in it in the CPU’s stats as they do with Netbooks, or that it comes up with stats in a new
    category … It ought to be more transparent in reporting on a true consolidated basis the iOs Vs Android debate about overall market share …

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:50 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      the most important place where all are included are in Apple’s EPS but it seems this detail (EPS, growth) does not matter any more; AAPL has more or less the same P/E as CSCO, DELL and much lower than NOK, ADBE … most of them having anemic growth if at all

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 10:14 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      I agree with you Nicu… But it is essential for us to keep track of Apple’s sales DURING the quarter , month by month… and to gauge Apple’s market share growth to demonstrate that it is indeed a small fish in a large pond and able to sustain over 50% annual growth and defeat the laws of the big numbers as AAPL zooms to Exxon’s market cap

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:22 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      I know what you mean, I just got burned hard by a short term options play and I am frustrated that those infos are not available or do not mater; but maybe the lesson is that we cannot change that (the way the market / media work) but we can learn and take advantage of it if possible – for me, it means I will stay away from short term plays so I do not lose any sleep about expirations, max pain, IV crush, massive institutional unloading etc.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:26 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      oh, and about that Aug call play, I just admitted defeat and I start setting trailing stops on what’s left of them – I try to forget how much $ I put on the fire and try to make the most from what I have now, keeping a smaller position in the event of un unexpected AAPL bull rally

      • caruso2323

        caruso2323 11:05 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

        @nicu
        Sorry to hear about yours losses … I thought you kept your 280 August call options …
        2010 has been LOUSY for me ! … Printing money was so easy in 2009 ! … Not any more … At least not yet ! … I just hope my portfolio to bulge in the last 90 days of 2010 !…

  • 26
    caruso2323

    caruso2323 10:03 pm on August 10, 2010 - 648 days ago

    Hi Consch & everyone …

    Just joined today, not in daily trading but still sticking with my lack-lustered “swing trading” in an ever LONGER way … lol …

    It is written on all the walls, but no one knows which way…
    At this stage it just boils down to pure gut feeling, and a tiny little TA combined with some common sense …

    Just came to share my own gut feeling for whatever it is worth …

    If AAPL does not break down tomorrow, the chances are greater that it will break UP by Thursday as the 20 day MA (257.71) crosses over the 50 day MA (258.58)… This break appears to be imminent because the BB bandwidth has hit a bottom and has relatively started to rise … The only positive sign today is that 20 MA acted as a solid support for a second time over the last 3 days trading……

    It is as if, whatever forces govern AAPL have been squeezing as many shares as possible below 260… Volume has dropped to VERY LOW levels… The selling pressure is waning, so is the buying pressure that gets boosted at the MA 20 ,the break is becoming more probable and nearer … As nicu pointed out : even institutions holdings have dropped by a couple of %… Also the Fudding is losing steam… No more news coming out that could be distorted… It may take REAL bad news from Apple to keep that momentum going…

    As for the common sense : Given AAPL’s fundamentals viz the last 2 earnings, it ought to be trading above 280 even at a Dow level of about 10400 , while it is close to 10700 and may rise to 10900 as the VIX drops on lower fears of a WW double dip…

    Stochastic wise it is slightly oversold at about 42%, RSI has hit again a low of 50% … I view both as slightly positives, the slightly negative one is the MACD on the daily …

    Hey consh ! … What does your crystal ball tells you tonight ?

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 11:53 pm on August 10, 2010 648 days ago

      Hey, Caruso. So good to see you here! I look forward to your elaborate posts! I try to give my take on weekly basis. Check my “This week’s events” post…

      http://www.traderhood.com/2010/08/09/this-week’s-events-aug9-aug13/

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 7:05 am on August 11, 2010 647 days ago

      Welcome to the Hood, Caruso. Everyone gets along here in this Matt-free, Fonz-free and Jay-free Hood.

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 12:10 pm on August 11, 2010 647 days ago

      I posted a long one , but lost it due to my inexperience with the site …

      I will summarize my thoughts :
      1) 250 is IT … Not going to 245 (Unless Double Dip) …
      2) A higher probability of Double dip would bring it down to the 220-230 range well below 245
      3) I expect we get back above 253.20 by 2:30 PM as shorts start covering (orby 2:45)
      4) This is a Shake-Out at low volume more than anything else …
      5) Hopefully we get good guidance from CSCO’s Chamber tonight after close
      6) it would be nice if we could get back to the 257-262 with some small pieces of news from Apple
      7) Any indications that AAPL is managing a ramp up of iP’4s along with new Retina displays could reverse COMPLETELY this break down into a break out well beyond 266

      • caruso2323

        caruso2323 1:04 pm on August 11, 2010 647 days ago

        @caruso2323
        Fast Stochastics on the daily is at GROUND ZERO ! and the Slow Stochastic has bottomed out relative to its trend…
        Any short below 250 is burned money ! …
        Those shorts below 250.30 will give us a modest bounce back above 250.60 … JMHO

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 1:27 pm on August 11, 2010 647 days ago

          @caruso2323
          what setup do you have on your slow stochastic? because on daily stochastic, %K (fast line) on AAPL is at %42.2 right now, so that’s only half way through. Worse DIA’s slow stoch downswing just started today, it’s at 76.03% right now. My setup for stochastic on dailies is:
          K = 5, D =3

          Or did you mean intraday?

        • caruso2323

          caruso2323 8:28 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

          @caruso2323
          This mildly good news about the iP4′s improved availability should give AAPL good support around 250 :

          http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/08/12/iphone_4_remains_sold_out_at_half_of_apple_us_retail_stores.html

          Apple appears to be half way in ramping up its iP4 production … That is great compared to the situation that prevailed in the July 11 – July 20 (Earning day) as 0 out of 20 stores were “in stock”…

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 3:08 pm on August 11, 2010 647 days ago

      I meant intra-day …

      Is there a way to post pics on your site consh ?

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 7:59 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

        @caruso2323
        “Is there a way to post pics on your site consh ?”

        pictures are half way done, but it still needs some work on the upload side. auto-resizing, ajax and such.

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 5:48 pm on August 11, 2010 647 days ago

      My intra-day “worst case” scenario was 250 …

      The “worst-Case” scenario is 244 on its corresponding trend-line, AH AAPL is down to 246 something with volume of 300K , a relatively light AH on days of major moves such as today …

      Yet as some distort the US deficit into GDP and start projecting a GDP revision drop of the freshly downward revised 3.2 % GDP to 2.4% … The FUD goes on … As if someones dream to see the good old days of March 2009 when a DEPRESSION scenario … So little has changed in 18 months ! … lol

      Yet another perspective could have been travelling back through time, with all the measures that HAVE BEEN taken to-date way back in MARCH 2008 some six months before the Lehman debacle , even a 1.3% GDP growth would have been described as a very strong SOFT LANDING… I am guessing now but Corporations would have had 33% less cash reserves , and the unemployment at less than the current 9.5% ,abd yet with the SAME SPENDING LEVEL, and SAME DEFICIT …

      Only fear and greed governs the stock market … The media is just a pure whore !

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:49 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      when is the last time you predicted AAPL to go lower, even slightly ?

      • caruso2323

        caruso2323 10:48 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

        @nicu
        When I posted this the day before last night, I really did not know which way AAPL would go… Unlike you nicu I don’t play options !… My timing is too lousy, I am just too rational, too greedy to take profits gradually as AAPL rises … You know the “I coulda, woulda… shoulda”… :(

        I manage my portfolio based on Reward to Risk … The reward is AAPL shoots up to 290 even if Dow is at 10,400 , the risk was for it to drop to 250… So as AAPL traded at 260 the reward to risk looked like 30/10 … Just too attractive … I did not expect the China bad news the day after…

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 10:25 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      lol … You may note that I gave two scenarios in my original post with a break down the same day …

      I can’t help it nicu being bullish about AAPL, and I DID not sell when Apple was still flirting with 260… So I leaned towards the Break UP scenario which I still believe will happen… All it takes is a PR from Apple about the 5th million iPad or 6th million , and a 6th millions iPhones … This will catapult AAPL with a 10% rise in a single day !…

      Mind you, last night I did suggest that there was potential downside to 244 … ! … :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:31 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      hehe good, I am / was a hyper bull on AAPL but for a long time (earnings included) it was just following NASDAQ from below (<= % every day) … it may just be that AAPL is finally a small fish trying to fight the tide and eventually gets tired (talking about the share, not the company) and pushed back like everyone else :(

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:48 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      stop dreaming about that +10% in one day, it may never happen again (except some huge earnings) even new products that equal the Mac in the first quarter of sales go meh when unveiled now – anything short of iTeleporter will be a sell on the news opportunity …

      • caruso2323

        caruso2323 11:00 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

        @nicu
        You may be surprised by not losing money on your 280 calls !…
        Remember the last time ? you ended up pleasantly surprised with those you kept ! …

        I would just take one PR with a double 6 millions to make it …

        • Nicu

          Nicu 11:36 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

          @caruso2323
          I only have $260 and $270 calls LOL and only 6.5 trading days left

          • caruso2323

            caruso2323 12:18 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

            @nicu
            I hope that you don’t lose on the $260 … 6.5 days is not too short for reaching it …
            My charts suggests that we may hit 256 today, could be doable if there is a snap back with Dow testing 10,420 resistance … This is 100 points away from the current 10,320… Maybe a small snap back could reverse the current -50 into a +50…

            As for the 270 options , join me in my prayers to get that double 6 millions PR from Apple !… For your gains in the 260 and 270 options will compensate and surpass your losses with those 280 options that you sold !…

            • Nicu

              Nicu 12:38 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

              @caruso2323
              when I sold $280 options, it was in fact to replace them by $270 options; so basically I paid something around $3 for $10 of maximum gains … betting a lot on the earnings + market reaction

            • caruso2323

              caruso2323 1:02 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

              @nicu
              My logic is this : If AAPL can hit 270 it will most likely trade in the 275-290 range …
              So, I don’t understand the choice of 270 options unless their prices are significantly cheaper than 280 options… What factors do you consider when choosing between 280 Vs 270 besides the probability of AAPL trading at these respective levels ?

    • GotWake

      GotWake 11:21 am on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      I was getting a little worried about the supply issue. I stopped by my Local AT&T store yesterday and they had some 32 GBs in stock.

      It’s easy being a hyper bull on this stock. There’s no reason that it shouldn’t be trading north of $300. Unfortunately, the market isn’t logical.

      • caruso2323

        caruso2323 12:21 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

        @gotwake
        Glad to hear that :) while hoping that it is not among those 30 stores that Gene Munster covered :)

        Thanks for posting !…

    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:42 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      and the average on $270 calls is $.61 as it was more of a failed day trade recently than an investment – so basically $258 should be enough if we see it tomorrow at latest :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:43 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      I assume you are talking about the Jan ’12 leaps from the other thread. As you have noticed, the strategy I proposed was to hold them at least one year and I hope that by this time $290 will be a distant memory.

      Choosing between $270 and $280 calls is basically the price. The difference is about $4 and the maximum gain difference is $10 (if you sell the last day or if AAPL is so much higher than $400 that the time premium is negligible). So you pay upfront $4 for a maximum gain of $10 or net gain of $6, that is 1.5 times. In the scenario I proposed you get $85 net gain for a $35 investment which is almost 2.5 times. So if you believe it hits $400 at some point during the next 17 months, $280 calls are a better deal. If it goes even higher, it even better (2.5 becomes maybe 3 or 3.5 times but that 1.5 times is the maximum you can hope for).

      By the same logic you my buy $290 calls or higher, but you have to consider the defensive also : in the worst case, what is the maximum of AAPL during 17 months ? if it’s lower then $315 you may actually lose money on the $280 calls and even more with $290 calls or higher

      I hope it helps :)

      But try to understand the play and do not get greedy with options if you decide to get in ;)

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 9:07 pm on August 12, 2010 646 days ago

      Consch ,

      I have a couple of suggestions for your Traderhood site :

      1) To have a tutorial thread permanently opened for Options to such newbies as myself … Some thread that would assemble useful posts such as those volunteered by Nicu

      2) To have threads dedicated either for Swing traders or Daily traders for AAPL and SPY

      3) To get more of those great contributors who used to post on the Google Financial AAPL board

      It is my intention to downscale my already down-scaled posting on the above mentioned board, as I will limit it to “broad messages” aimed at the media… I wish to restrain my posting here to purely sharing “Due Diligence” information…

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