Body
Post
  • conshmillo

    conshmillo 6:35 pm on December 9, 2011 - 58 days ago

    If it needs to be spelled out for some, euro is not going away and European Union is not going to disinteffgrate. I read my share of horror scenarios by “experts” in financial papers all over. As it starts to sink in, that euro is here to stay, position of euro will start to improve. It is close to the multi-year low and it has plenty of room to grow. ECB just eased few days back so there is not another cut on horizon in the immediate term. Of course as euro will improve, US markets will improve with it as stronger euro means cheaper American exports.

    It has other ramifications. DJIA is at the edge of its big 12,250 resistance. If euro will indeed start gaining from here, it will give fuel to DJIA to cross this most immediate resistance, with a good chance of going into a breakout. So I am standing by my comments from few days back that DJIA will continue higher in December.

    If both of the above render to be true, AAPL should break its own 398.00 resistance in next few days and break out into 400+ territory again . It crossed back above its 50 EMA, and it’s bouncing off it each time it pulls back in last few days.

    TSLA was a breath away from a breakout, but it seems somebody had a big interest to halt that development and managed to issue a downgrade. If DJIA will break out in next few days, TSLA too should be dragged higher with it. Not sure if it can manage to get back 10% it lost due to the downgrade, but I believe it should bounce back some if DJIA breaks.

     

  • conshmillo 7:12 am on December 2, 2011 - 66 days ago

    conshmillo

    DIA posted a beautiful skyscraper by crossing it’s 50 EMA two days ago. AAPL closed today at the very edge of it’s own 50 DAY EMA which currently sits at around 387.00.

    Here are the scenarios. Overall I believe market will continue higher in December. There is possibility of slight pullback in DJIA (DIA) in next few days because stochastic upswing is currently spent there (signal line there is over 80%), however MACD is at the bullish crossover so overall movement should be continuation higher.

    AAPL’s own stochastic is at overbought levels today, but same as DJIA (DIA) it is at the bullish cross on MACD. So even if we would see slight pullback off the 50 day EMA resistance, eventually AAPL should break it and as a result to post it’s own little skyscraper.

    AAPL price stamp: 387.93

     

  • conshmillo 6:56 am on December 2, 2011 - 66 days ago

    conshmillo

    Safari still sucks! Updated to 5.1.2 which supposed to improve stability and resolve bugs. Not so. Switching between users causes Safari to choke with just few pages open. Safari debugger sometimes comes on, sometimes doesn’t. Not the behavior of stable product. Ready to switch to Chrome.

     
  • 3
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 7:14 pm on November 30, 2011 - 67 days ago

    Estylo 1.1 is the first and ONLY wooden stylus to work on capacitive touch screens such as that of the iPad. At Plai our goal was to create a completely eco friendly product that would inspire the imagination. Designed for artists seeking greater accuracy over their work, it can also be used for writing or simply navigating the web. Inside Estylo we use high quality conductive materials so that no extra pressure is needed for it to be detected. In other words, Estylo is the pencil of NOW.

    SOURCE:
    http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/plai-tv/estylo-11-magnetic-dual-tip-capacitive-stylus-for?ref=popular

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 7:29 pm on November 30, 2011 67 days ago

      I use DAGi styluses with my iPad, but this look like a nice idea worth trying and supporting.

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 8:05 pm on December 1, 2011 66 days ago

      Interesting. I’ve never used a capacitive stylus on my iStuff. What do you use it for? And why do you like it?
      I can see that it might be especially good for drawing or writing. I like my Wacom which I use for graphics applications on my Mac.

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 11:20 pm on December 1, 2011 66 days ago

        Sketching and jotting down handwritten notes. DAGi was the only one I could find that allows for little more precise positioning and finer lines. It’s still not perfect. I think Apple needs to build into iOS more functionality for styluses. Kind of similar to what they did for magic mouse. To communicate pressure, size and such from stylus to the iPad. It would be nice to have magnetic brushes of different sizes and similar tools for drawing and painting.

  • conshmillo 8:35 am on November 30, 2011 - 68 days ago

    conshmillo

    So sick and tired of news outlets hyping Europe’s doom. There is 30% problem and 70% media escalation of that problem. As a result rational beings start behaving like crazy monkeys hyping prices into insanity. Self feeding mechanism that makes problems worse.

     
  • conshmillo

    conshmillo 5:35 am on November 29, 2011 - 69 days ago

    Here is one for you Siri affectionados!

    SOURCE:
    http://jalopnik.com/5863005/siri-hacked-to-start-a-car

     
  • 10
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 6:19 am on November 28, 2011 - 70 days ago

    “In light of the recent sell-off in global equities, it is now an incontestable FACT that Apple is the most undervalued and underappreciated large-cap growth company in America. The stock trades at an extremely depressed valuation that Wall Street isn’t taking seriously (8.25 P/E Ratio), the company’s growth continues to outpace every large cap company on the entire S&P 500, and the company’s growth rate percentage – defying all laws of gravity – continues to accelerate without any sign of abating.”

    Read the whole Andy Zaky’s take on Apple Insider:

    SOURCE:
    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/11/27/apple_the_most_undervalued_large_cap_stock_in_america.html

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 6:32 am on November 28, 2011 70 days ago

      Maybe better question is how much price to earnings matters in stock analysis in 2011. When someone analyses stock they do it by considering various factors. For me it is enveloping technicals vs individual (enveloped) technicals plus correlations between enveloping factors. For someone else it’s P/E and debt and earnings figures and other fundamentals. For someone else purely technicals of individual stock. Someone else maybe be basing it on amount of positive articles in the news. Maybe P/E doesn’t have the same analytical value it used to have.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 6:52 am on November 28, 2011 70 days ago

        It’s the same old short term vs. long term (voting machine / weighting machine). There is no way cash accumulates faster that the market cap forever. If Apple does not slow down earnings growth, in 3 years it will have more cash that today’s valuation. A company that is still growing earnings (slower probably in 2014) cannot be valued less than its cash. It’s like being able to buy a house for $100k and have a buyer for $200k already signed. We live in a very strange and uncertain and cash hungry market and the irrational valuation is just a tremendous opportunity for the long term investor, nothing else. All those who sold or decided not to buy (when trying to answer should I or should I not ?) will kick themselves in the b**** sooner or later.

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 6:28 pm on November 28, 2011 69 days ago

      So Nicu. I’m trying to decide what to do.
      What do you think is the best way to exploit this with minimal fuss and risk?
      Jan Call options? Longer term calls? Some more exotic configuration?
      Just curious, as I’m not experienced with options etc.

      • calvin

        calvin 6:35 pm on November 28, 2011 69 days ago

        Options in general are risky, most of them expire worthless. Having said that, if you’re still interested in Calls, I prefer April 2012 for short term & Jan 13 for medium term in my portfolio. There should be a decent ramp-up around the next earnings barring a total catastrophe in Europe. April options would provide enough time to wait for this ramp-up.

        • JPWatkins

          JPWatkins 7:20 pm on November 28, 2011 69 days ago

          Risky, yes. But the risk is known and limited (I’m talking about buying options, not selling contracts.)
          They do tend to expire worthless of course, since their time value goes to zero as expiry approaches. The point is to sell them *before* they expire. I wouldn’t have the funds to exercise them anyway.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:51 pm on November 28, 2011 69 days ago

        I think Jan ’13 calls with a strike as low (not in the money) as you can afford. I think anything up to $500 should end up in the money nicely. But hey, if the euro breaks down, AAPL may stay irrationally low even for one year. So evaluate your odds and make your own decision. And in any case, don’t go all in at once :)

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 10:47 pm on November 28, 2011 69 days ago

      Thanks, Nicu,
      I’ll check that out.
      Is your thought that longer term options offer greatest overall potential or the safest option deal?
      Is this a longer term strategy, selling them a few months before expiration? Or do you see them as a shorter or medium term bet with extra margin for safety (time value padding?)

      “And in any case, don’t go all in at once”
      Hard not to with the cost of a single AAPL contract so high! :-)
      on the other hand, it makes the commission cost less of a factor.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 11:28 pm on November 28, 2011 69 days ago

        If there is no catastrophic event, I feel that any Jan ’13 call between $450 and $500 strike should do a 5x. So you may sell as soon as you see a 3x during the first 3 months, 4x during the next 3 months, 5x anytime later; if you still have them during the last 3 months, you should accept lower multiples 4x, 3x or so just to be on the safe side.

        Many times I also use the following strategy (works better with lower strikes): say you have the $450 call and the stock is $480. Now you should be able to sell the spread $450-$460 for $6.5 or more. So you get $650 minus fees for one contract and you replace the $450 call with a $460 call. It may seem stupid to take only 2/3 of the profit ($10 max), but you have this cash sooner so you can invest it in other stuff. If you make 1.5x on it until the option expires you’ve done great. Also, you take some of the risk off the table. Say you payed for your call $35. Repeat this step (selling the spread) five times, thus being left with a $500 call and well north of $30 in cash, you basically got your call for free. Also, if after going to $500, the stock comes back to $430, you can buy back the spread you sold for $6.5+ at half price. Thus you have the same thing as at a previous step (same call) but some extra cash.

        I’m very bad for the short term, maybe consh can help, but I would wait for a small pullback to get in. It seems to me that all this rally was just on rumors about Italy that were denied by IMF and Bruxelles. Market still continued to rally afterwards. I think a general nervous breakdown is happening before our eyes.

        Good luck !

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 5:10 am on November 29, 2011 69 days ago

        It’s all good advice from Nicu. You definitely want to buy rather less contracts (more expensive) further away, than more contracts (cheaper) that are closer to expiration. Name of the game when playing options is to ride the waves. There are two basic ways how to go about it. You heard this from me before but regardless here it is again: Reversals and Breakouts. In very simplified terms when you play reversals, pick your timeframe (intraday, daily, weekly) and wait for crossovers on MACD (you can use also stochastic as a fine tuner). When you see bullish crossover on MACD (or close to) start gradually loading up on calls. If bearish cross start gradually loading on puts. Set upfront how many times you will cost average till you get your final entry price. Cost average only when it falls by a good chunk otherwise be happy even with smaller position. Don’t chase. There will be another opportunity. Waiting is your biggest weapon. It does’t cost you anything. That’s the meaning of the big Lao Tzu banner here at Traderhood. Your timeframe is most probably daily. That doesn’t mean you trade daily but that you choose daily charts (as opposed let’s say 5 minutes charts for intraday trading). For daily timeframe I use 3 months/daily chart. That’s about 60 bars on chart.
        When playing breakouts you are betting for price to beat some well established support or resistance. If price manages to do so there is usually nice skyscraper or in case of breaking support there is nice avalanche. When playing breakouts you want to have tight stops because you are buying at the top and if breakout doesn’t materialize (as it often doesn’t) you bought for worst possible price because you bought at the reversal.
        Don’t try to play reversals and breakouts at the same time as you will gyrate between those not benefiting from either one. You can start playing them at the same time when you get more used to playing theme each solo first.

        For daily time frame I think we are in a very good place to start loading up. Nothing is sure ever as you never know for sure what some macro influence will be. Like getting pounded by euro so many times that we are all sick of it by now. But trading is game of odds. You start loading up when odds are improving. On AAPL we will probably see some hesitance if upswing continues somewhere around 387. That’s where 50 EMA currently is.

        Check this 3 months/daily chart and see where 50 EMA currently is and how MACD is getting ready for bullish cross. Stochastic is in a great position to start upswing too.

        http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/print/print.asp?nosettings=1&symb=aapl&uf=0&type=4&size=2&sid=609&style=320&freq=1&time=6&rand=1054430731&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=2&maval=50&lf=32&lf2=4&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1&showColor=True&returnUrl=%2fadvchart%2fframes%2fframes.asp%3fshow%3d%26insttype%3dStock%26symb%3daapl%26time%3d6%26startdate%3d1%252F4%252F1999%26enddate%3d11%252F28%252F2011%26freq%3d1%26compidx%3daaaaa%253A0%26comptemptext%3d%26comp%3dnone%26ma%3d2%26maval%3d50%26uf%3d0%26lf%3d32%26lf2%3d4%26lf3%3d0%26type%3d4%26style%3d320%26size%3d2%26x%3d45%26y%3d20%26timeFrameToggle%3dfalse%26compareToToggle%3dfalse%26indicatorsToggle%3dfalse%26chartStyleToggle%3dfalse%26state%3d11

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 8:15 pm on November 29, 2011 68 days ago

      Thanks again for the explanation guys.

  • 1
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 8:03 pm on November 23, 2011 - 74 days ago

    Supermodel-endorsed companies create a portfolio that easily outperforms the blue chips.

    SOURCE:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-supermodel-whos-outperforming-the-dow-2011-11-23

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 8:09 pm on November 23, 2011 74 days ago

      U.S. dollar is in trouble as Gisele endorses euro. :-)

  • 1
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 6:39 pm on November 23, 2011 - 74 days ago

    “Among yesterday’s service shutdowns at Google, which included underperforming and deprecated Web properties like Knol, Wave and Gears, there was also news of the end of RE<C. What’s RE<C? Just one of those ambitious “we can save the world with Google money!” type projects that gave the search giant the appearance for caring about more than the influx of ad dollars. In this case, RE<C was focused on lowering the cost of renewable energy. Or, as the acronym indicates, to make “renewable energy” (RE) less than (cheaper than) coal (C)."

    SOURCE:
    http://techcrunch.com/2011/11/23/google-gives-up-on-green-tech-investment-initiative-rec/

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 6:40 pm on November 23, 2011 74 days ago

      too bad. I liked that one.

  • conshmillo

    conshmillo 6:35 pm on November 23, 2011 - 74 days ago

    “Walt Disney Studios and YouTube have struck deal which will bring hundreds of Disney movies to YouTube, starting today. The new partnership between the two companies includes movies from Disney, Disney-Pixar and DreamWorks Studios. The films, some of which have already arrived on YouTube, are available to rent starting at $1.99.”

    SOURCE:
    http://techcrunch.com/2011/11/23/new-partnership-brings-disney-movies-to-youtube-starting-today/

     
c
compose new post
j
next post/next comment
k
previous post/previous comment
r
reply
e
edit
o
show/hide comments
t
go to top
l
go to login
h
show/hide help
esc
cancel