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  • 3
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 1:39 am on January 20, 2012 - 121 days ago

    In my December Quo Vadis post I argued for DJIA go higher in January. You can see it here. Since then DJIA is up 338 points (2.75%)

    http://www.traderhood.com/2011/12/27/quo-vadis

    Gold behaved as I expected too. It rose above the it’s 1,600 resistance and is hanging at 1,658 at a moment. Gain of 3.62%.

    EUR was real slow to gain as it was pounded daily with negative rhetoric in financial periodicals. On top of it S&P downgraded almost every European country with exception of Germany (and Slovakia) and Fitch is daily fear mongering the news with Greek default. In spite of all of that EUR finally started to gain and was able to bounce off the lows of 1.2623 and make 4 day uninterrupted bullish run to 1.2971. This is the first time since the beginning of November 2011 it was able to finish full uninterrupted stochastic upswing on dailies. Not even the S&P downgrade of the “whole” Europe could push it lower.

    That said, I think EUR will get a short breather here before it can continue higher. I’ll be watching how far it will retrace now that stochastic on dailies is at 80%. A lot of the EUR will be again influenced by media, but my guess is now that it has been able to do full stochastic bounce, it will not retrace more than 50% and I will be increasing my EUR positions on resistance breakouts.

    Both DJIA and gold seems to be slightly on overbought side and I would expect both of them to pull back a bit with DJIA having support at 12,250 and gold having support around 1,620.

    AAPL is technically at overbought levels and I think a lot of the earnings news is already priced in upfront. Unless Apple posts totally unexpected (higher than any expectation) earnings, there will be the “buy rumor – sell news” pullback after the announcement.

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:59 pm on January 20, 2012 120 days ago

      glad to see you back, Vilo, I was afraid I’m alone in this town (I hope you’re fine)

      where did the chat box go?

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 4:20 am on January 23, 2012 117 days ago

        I am fine, just busy. Euro was pounded so much that there wasn’t much for me to do. Chat is off as there wasn’t much traffic there yet and it will be part of bigger remake. How are you doing on TSLA.?Where you substantially in during that big hit?

        • Nicu

          Nicu 9:59 am on January 23, 2012 117 days ago

          Glad you are fine and that there will be a better Traderhood.

          I was driving while TSLA was crashing so I did not get anything on the cheap.

          My strategy on TSLA is twofold:
          1) long term growth, I think $50 is possible by the end of the year and $80 in 2013.
          2) be prepared for a shot squeeze; I followed closely the situation during November when short interest was at all time high and the stock bounced several times on the $35 wall. With a little help from their friends at MS, shorts got to breathe and they even got some wings recently.

          For 1) I have about 44 Jan ’13 calls and 14 Jan ’14 calls. If cash will be available from AAPL calls, I will increase the 2014 position.

          For the short squeeze I buy 5c calls one to three months out. I think I already lost about $3k on expired Dec and Jan calls and I have a bit over $1k in Mar calls. I will try to finance this strategy until one or two months after the delivery of the Model S, while keeping costs in check.

  • 1
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 11:22 pm on January 3, 2012 - 137 days ago

    Happy New Year gang!

     
    • Garth Vader

      Garth Vader 5:20 pm on January 18, 2012 122 days ago

      And the best for you too in 2012!

  • 3
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 10:13 pm on December 27, 2011 - 144 days ago

    DJIA finished it’s last week stochastic upswing. Now firmly above 80% curving down (see chart). This stochastic upswing (in conjunction with other things) was my basis for expectation of markets ending higher in December. One of the other things, that is still in play was, mother of resistances for DJIA @12,285. These things often times act like a magnet and price often won’t give up until it at least briefly crosses over. Which is exactly what happened. Now with stochastic on DJIA above 80% there is possibility for pullback, but my bet is it is again going to be only temporary, and low retracement pullback, before DJIA tries again to do decisive breakout above 12,285. Hopefully at the beginning of January.

    One of the other reasons I am more tilted toward the DJIA breakout higher is gold. Although it is dangerously close to it’s own mother of resistances (1,600) and dropping again lower could create snowball, it already tested waters under it and came back. Further, it’s MACD is at a bullish crossover and stochastic is finishing downswing there as well. Gaining gold would put pressure on dollar, making it cheaper which would add fuel to DJIA.

    One more thing is swiss franc. It seems to be overbought and reaching it’s zenith. If swiss franc will ease, as it seems it is technically ready to do, that would make euro rise and again dollar to weaken.

    Politically Iowa caucuses are week away and there are strong indications that Ron Paul could win. I think that fact could put slight pressure on dollar as well.

    Disclosure: I am long on euro.

     
    • Bunratty

      Bunratty 12:26 am on December 28, 2011 144 days ago

      I think DIA, SPY, AAPL, QQQ are all overbought and normally would look for a selloff…however Santa Rally looks to be in full swing, so anything goes. Have freed up some cash just in case :)

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 11:13 pm on January 3, 2012 137 days ago

      There you have it, and it should push further as gold looks very bullish at the moment. All as expected in original post – DJIA broke through, gold up, dollar down, swiss franc down, euro up.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 11:20 pm on January 3, 2012 137 days ago

      P.S. Pay especially attention to 1,650 resistance on /YG (gold futures) because if that one goes, double bottom pattern is filled and gold may go crazy again. If you think it has nothing to do with you, think twice. Higher gold means lower dollar, higher euro (good for me), and higher DJIA as cheaper dollar makes American goods more attractive. And of course higher DJIA means wind in the backs of your own singular stock. Cheers!

  • conshmillo 4:19 am on December 24, 2011 - 147 days ago

    1
    conshmillo

    DJIA made it all the way to the big resistance of 12,280 as expected and even bit over. I still believe we are going higher and will have nice breakout above 12,280 either next week or at the beginning of January 2012. Having stochastic above 80% could mean we may pull back a bit for few days or it may go for breakout right away. We’ll see. December panned out quite nice so far.

     
    • Bunratty

      Bunratty 3:17 pm on December 24, 2011 147 days ago

      Yes, nice low volume rally. For AAPL, RSI is high and stock price approaching upper BB. I sold some options just in case there is a sizable pullback before earnings rally.

  • conshmillo

    conshmillo 9:22 am on December 23, 2011 - 148 days ago

    “There is basically no way to build a smartphone that doesn’t infringe on someone else’s patents, either knowingly or unknowingly, because there are simply too many of them, intellectual property experts say. What a company must do is prevent any obvious infringements in areas that are essential to the platform’s functionality, and amass a patent portfolio so large that lawsuits can be met with something more than empty words. “Basically it’s all-out war and you come to the war with your stacks of patents, and Google didn’t have as much as the other companies. That’s why it’s being hurt today,” Carrier said.

    With Android becoming mainstream before Google amassed enough patents to protect it, the company tried to solve the problem by waving money at it. Google’s attempts to buy the patent portfolio from bankrupt Nortel failed, with a consortium including Apple, Microsoft, and RIM putting together the winning package of $4.5 billion. Stymied, Google decided to buy Motorola Mobility and its portfolio of 17,000 patents worldwide, for a premium price of $12.5 billion.”

    Read the whole thing…

    SOURCE:
    http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/12/android-patent-war/

     
  • conshmillo

    conshmillo 10:18 pm on December 22, 2011 - 149 days ago

    Market will be closed Monday, December 26, 2011 and Monday, January 2, 2012.

     

  • conshmillo 6:32 pm on December 16, 2011 - 155 days ago

    2
    conshmillo

    I think it’s a horseshit that UK has a right to veto European Union’s decisions in regard to euro. Only if they drop pound sterling and adopt euro they should be allowed to veto anything in regard to euro. Sheesh (2)!

     
    • Bunratty

      Bunratty 11:54 pm on December 16, 2011 155 days ago

      (a) horseshit? (sheesh 3)

    • Bunratty

      Bunratty 12:18 am on December 18, 2011 154 days ago

      Yes, I agree with you Vilo. Seems like a counter move by Cameron et al after his embarrassing pullout last week at the Euro Conference. The Brits/English want to have their cake and eat it too.

  • conshmillo 6:19 pm on December 16, 2011 - 155 days ago

    conshmillo

    Now, what the heck are they freaking about today? Ruining perfectly good market open. Sheesh!

     
  • 1
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 7:04 am on December 16, 2011 - 155 days ago

    Steve Jobs – Billion Dollar Hippy (BBC Documentary)

     
    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 7:35 pm on December 16, 2011 155 days ago

      That was interesting. I do enjoy BBC, but It I’m always surprised at how they seem to get a lot of little things wrong either for national pride or just a “better story.” Not terrible stuff, just stuff they have obviously decided to interpret incorrectly. Overall, very good though.

  • conshmillo 8:48 am on December 15, 2011 - 156 days ago

    1
    conshmillo

    Loading problems solved. It was an PHP memory issue. All posts I turned off during debugging are back again. So is euro, so hopefully they’ve got it out of their system, and it will do full stochastic upswing. Which is due technically starting right now. It should push higher DJIA, S&P500 futures (/ES) and gold futures (/YG), that are acting for most part together. So hopefully we’ll see some relief rally in next few days. Hopefully gold will not go into full panic mode now being under it’s most current resistance and under it’s 200 EMA. That would pump dollar even further doing job on DJIA as well. Let’s cross the fingers that gold will try to do the rebound too and not to drag things down.

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 9:23 am on December 15, 2011 156 days ago

      Maybe spoke too soon, Swiss National Bank announcement spoiled the euro rally about 30 minutes after it started.

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