Revisiting this:
http://www.traderhood.com/2012/02/23/where-will-aapl-go-now/#comments
All I can say about AAPL these days is, “Holy Crap!”
Can this keep up?
Is this the market finally starting to value AAPL more rationally? (or is it “irrational exuberance?”)
Is this a delayed Mutual Fund effect or “the new normal”?
What do you guys think about it?
Since Conshmillo (like me) thought Apple was over bought $65 or more ago, I’m especially interested in what you are thinking these days. As for me, I see it as even more overbought (at least for the previous analyst environment.) But perhaps now the environment has changed. Perhaps Wall Steet has actually taken some of Nicu’s PE analysis to heart, and this is the “new normal.” I’ve continued to tell myself not to re-enter the trend late, but the trend seems to have legs.
)
There was no “Sell on the News” this time … I attribute that to SJ’s appearance than to the investor reaction to the iPad 2
Nicu 8:49 pm on March 14, 2012 66 days ago Reply
I’m speechless too. I had 30 long term AAPL calls, sold 5 on the way up before it was clear that Greece will be pulled out of the sh**hole. Since then I have sold short some calls with strikes much higher than those that cover them. And I am patiently taking profits just by increasing the strike (selling the bull call spread) on some of the 25 long calls left (each of them is worth over $100 now, meaning more than a quarter million in those – really scary!)
I should be happy, but after so many months and even years of undeserved flatness (Jan-June last year near $300, or Aug-Jan near $400), it feels unreal, just like something bad is prepared behind your back and this is just the “demo version”. I am puzzled and tempted to use some of that $100k cash that I have extracted since earnings to buy some AAPL puts. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not that AAPL does not deserve this price or higher, but why all the growth at once? Who will stop big players from taking some serious profits when they feel all the “momentum suckers” got in?
Silk Hope 9:59 pm on March 14, 2012 66 days ago Reply
I have always been Nicu’s camp and apparently so is our infamous Mr. Cramer. Jim says the stock compared to others that sit at PE’s of 40, Apple should be at $1800.00 PS. I am not that high but in my thinking but I do believe $1000 bux PS is a reasonable expectation. Some of you have seen my posts Re: LGF. It’s pe is 67 and I believe with movie coming out it still has a ton of room to run. Now what do you think of Apple?
Besides at the end of the day JP they are still putting out a ton of cool stuff out on the market that people really want to buy. One other thing to consider, Mr Cook majored in Supply Chain economics. While Steve and his black turtle neck was the face of Apple I beginning to think that Tim is a genius in his own right. He makes the “TRAINS” run on time and that is so essential in designing, building, selling and shipping product. In other words was Jobs the puppet and and Cook the puppeteer. Only time will tell but right now he has system running like Swiss Train.
GotWake 1:05 am on March 15, 2012 66 days ago Reply
I’m thinking that people are still factoring in the “mythical” dividend or buyback this year and don’t want to miss the bus. The bulls run in at any weakness and pull it back up.
It does deserve to be this high, but what a move! It does scare the crap out of me. If we do get moving down, it will be like jumping off a cliff.
Silk Hope 2:57 am on March 15, 2012 66 days ago Reply
@ Got Wake: It just an f’ing great Co. Go with it!
Senator Gronk 4:47 am on March 15, 2012 65 days ago Reply
I have sneaking suspicion that this might continue through the year. If you think about it, if everybody is tired of the volatility game, what if they just sit back and let off on the reigns. Apple flies to the mid-600s, falls back maybe, then comes back and settles at some astronomical figure under $1000. In a way, it makes sense, this is actually the moment we’ve all been waiting for. Historically it makes no damn sense.
As always, there’s no crystal ball. I’ve been ready to pull out everyday since $480 but with no compelling macro reasons and being in the money far beyond my wildest expectations, I see no reason to cash in. For the moment.
I realized today that they could fall off 10% and still be above the number I intended to sell at after Q1 numbers. That’s a good day after 25 years of blood sweet and tears… ; )
conshmillo 4:57 am on March 15, 2012 65 days ago Reply
What happened is AAPL managed to break through another major resistance (550). It didn’t do it on it’s own. DJIA turned around and broke it’s own 13,000. With two consecutive upgrades in last few days I would be even more suspicious that correction is comming up. It’s almost like proping the price as much as possible before they start selling. There is something very unusual going on in the markets since Dec 20 2011, I am still not sure where it is coming from. Is it some form of China’s curency manipulation, is it the result of the perfect storm where super supressed euro and depressed DJIA were feeding each other backed by fed’s promise not to raise rates till 2013? All of the above backed by mutual funds loading betting 2012 will be the euro zone recovery as 2009 was recovery of US market after 2008 disaster?
Sure thing is that at these heights one needs to think about exit strategies. Even if one dumped the whole load of AAPL shares and replaced it partially with 1 year options. Or sell some puts against existing positions, or take just part out. Thing with breakouts is that one can enter them even late, provided he uses tight stops. By the same logic if one wants to still stay in position thatbis hitting all time high one should set tighter stops, so when it goes all to hell he’ll be out rather sooner than later.
Nicu 6:13 am on March 15, 2012 65 days ago Reply
you mean sell some CALLS against existing positions, right? calls are expensive now, puts got cheap and risky – may force you to buy high …
conshmillo 6:44 am on March 15, 2012 65 days ago Reply
right, or one could buy some puts