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  • 1
    Nicu

    Nicu 9:10 am on January 24, 2017 - 64 days ago

    I think some of you ;) will like this!

    SOURCE:
    https://medium.com/adventures-in-consumer-technology/apple-inc-a-pre-mortem-568d1a0b7d72#.8somrwbny

     
    • piero

      piero 5:27 pm on February 9, 2017 47 days ago

      Thank you Nicu!
      Great article completely realistic!
      Don’t think Cook can make it.
      Steve was an hippie, Cook is an exec… :-)

  • Nicu 1:52 pm on September 26, 2016 - 184 days ago

    2
    Nicu

    Comparing initial usage data

    https://mixpanel.com/trends/#report/iphone_7/from_date:-29,report_unit:day,to_date:0

    with previous years and iPhones in existence, adding the fact that there will be 14 weeks instead of 13 for Q1, numbers indicate around 100M iPhones in Q1.

    Of course, I do not believe that, there are many reasons for the data to be skewed, but I am [50+%] confident that we will see 80-85M iPhones. Which implies great guidance at the end of October and probably a $150 5-month target. I have just got a bunch of Feb calls accordingly.

     
  • Nicu 9:52 pm on March 28, 2016 - 365 days ago

    1
    Nicu

    iPhone SE such a failure, all models out of stock in the US, France, Hong Kong and China (did not check the other countries) !

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 7:06 am on March 29, 2016 365 days ago

      Looks pretty much the same as iPhone 4S. What an innovation. I have not bought anything from Apple pretty much since Jobs died. Can’t stand the interface. I have not been in Apple store for a year. Could not care less if they cease to exist tomorrow.

  • Nicu 11:59 pm on December 25, 2015 - 459 days ago

    1
    Nicu

    Merry Christmas everyone!

    I hope you spend time with family and friends and relax :)

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 4:53 pm on December 28, 2015 457 days ago

      Hey Nicu, marry christmas and happy new year to you too!

  • Nicu

    Nicu 2:23 pm on December 7, 2015 - 478 days ago

    While just an indirect data point, we cannot fully ignore it.

    SOURCE:
    http://www.cultofmac.com/400717/reports-of-slowing-iphone-production-may-be-greatly-exaggerated/

     
  • Nicu 4:28 pm on October 25, 2015 - 521 days ago

    8
    Nicu

    Lazy earnings estimates: revs $53+B, EPS $2+
    Guidance, to end: $80+B

    If I am right on earnings and on top of that we get the middle of the guidance range about $80B or more, there will be fireworks. I know I have waited for that for the last 3 quarters, results were good and nothing happened. But the entire market and especially NASDAQ want to roar back and Apple’s reasons could be the oil on the fire many other wait for!

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:30 am on October 26, 2015 520 days ago

      My estimates for guidance (Q4 earning are interesting only as entertaining IMHO) are based on more or less flat iPhone sales y/y, but increased momentum for services (music, apps etc.), watch and iPad Pro.

      However, it is clear that iPhone # is the most sensible issue to investors. Happily, we won’t have those numbers until Jan ’16, so strong guidance for revenues will do for now.

      By my estimates, there are about 40% more iPhones in use now than this time last year. This means that if the % of 6s of all iPhones is at least 72% of the percentage last year, we have at least flat sales. There may also be stronger 6 sales along 6s than there were 5s along 6 last year. That could skew a bit the numbers.

      There is an iPhone issue that I do not understand so I cannot reconcile several data points. It is related to the aforementioned %. It is sourced here
      https://www.fiksu.com/resources/ios_trackers

      It looks like we are really close to that 72%, we are at 4.9% compared to 6.9% last year. But the contradiction arises from the fact that we know that 13M were sold during the first 3 days compared to 10M last year. And this is contradicted by the graph at Fiksu.

      So I have only one theory about that, but it is so speculative that I feel like an alchemist or a medic 500 years ago. It is that sales in China / Asia are so strong to make a large % of sales this year, yet they use completely different set of apps / services than those usually tracked by Fiksu.

      All this to say that I do not have a clue if iPhone sales will grow or not in Q. I am pretty sure there will not be a material drop, however. That’s backed by increased availability, both production and geography, but also later release that pushes a bit more of the initial surge of sales into Q1.

      If, on top of the reasons I have explained for my guidance estimate of $80+B, we have real iPhone growth (10+%), it will get crazy fun. Otherwise, any kind of twisted theories by the media could ruin our party!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:45 pm on October 26, 2015 519 days ago

      Indeed, “While the data is worldwide, the majority of Fiksu’s clients focus on user acquisition in the US and Europe, so the Asia Pacific region may be underrepresented.”
      https://twitter.com/dtellom/status/658684139315548161

    • Zee

      Zee 7:09 pm on October 27, 2015 518 days ago

      Lazy is good. You have very good intuitive instincts. Cheers.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:20 pm on October 27, 2015 518 days ago

        Thanks for your confidence. We will see very soon if there is any good in my estimates :)

        As for lazy, yes, at some point I had quite a system, but after some point, the more I worked, the worse my predictions got. So now I try to put a bit of common sense and a trace of reports / articles read during the quarter. Probably a bit of instinct too, but that may be very misleading sometimes.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:23 pm on October 27, 2015 518 days ago

          brrr, too many “points” in my previous comment, but, hey, no edit!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:32 pm on October 27, 2015 518 days ago

      EPS $1.96 – close
      rev. $51.5B – far away
      guidance $75.5B – $77.5B – far away

      not so good instinct after all :(

      • SB

        SB 10:15 pm on October 28, 2015 517 days ago

        Guess it was good you didn’t participate in PED’s earnings smackdown …..

        • Zee

          Zee 4:09 am on November 7, 2015 508 days ago

          @ SB
          He didn’t hit the grind stone. That’s all. ,,, Do you want to give it a shot?

  • Nicu 11:16 am on October 20, 2015 - 526 days ago

     
  • Nicu 2:12 am on October 18, 2015 - 528 days ago

    3
    Nicu

    Maybe I should sleep instead of building a nice little piece of software at 4 AM, not sure if it’s me, but strange things are happening: google.com, bing.com and yahoo.com are not accessible, most other sites seem to work, a bit slower than usual …

     
    • Zee

      Zee 10:55 pm on October 18, 2015 527 days ago

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 6:42 am on October 19, 2015 527 days ago

      what are you working on? your electric cart project?

      • Nicu

        Nicu 9:39 am on October 19, 2015 527 days ago

        somehow; I was designing some circuit by hand (I know, there are tools, but they are either too complex and specialized or too basic and counterintuitive and you lose 1 hour searching for the right component to place on the board); and when I was over 6 hours of drawing and copying and redrawing I decided I have to at least use the computer to design the partial circuit and print it and then complete by hand; so I am writing a software to design PCB; dead simple and super-quick interface that tries to mimic working with paper, also copying (and I think improving) some ideas from the CAD software I have used recently

        now this is just a bit deeper than it sounds, because in parallel I have a plan and some ideas to make a software to automatically layout traces on a PCB; but then I thought that making a GUI that recognizes holes, traces and components as logical elements on several layers and finds intersections, improper connections etc. is also a stepping stone towards the AI program; I gain experience of what are the real issues (both for the electrical circuit and the related software) but also build some of the tools needed for AI (find intersections, distances, electrical connections etc.)

        the circuit I was working for is precisely for the kart; I want to build a pack of super-capacitors in series and a balancing circuit so they are kept in voltage range and as equal as possible; in parallel with batteries, they have the potential to double the short term power for only 50% or less extra weight; they would also protect batteries from PWM and sudden changes in power demand / regen; as they can charge super-quickly, it may also improve the regen efficiency, thus needing a smaller battery for the same range … sweet dreams :)

  • TRADE

    Nicu 6:43 pm on October 6, 2015 - 539 days ago

    Nicu

    in 4 lots of Jan 2018 $120 C @ $17.05

     
  • TRADE

    Nicu 3:48 pm on September 25, 2015 - 551 days ago

    2
    Nicu

    in 6 lots Oct 02 $120 C @ 22c

     
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