I had a very hard time choosing between what I think are the natural forces at play and Apple’s “true” guidance. My “natural” numbers for revenue were above $40B but with a guidance of max $37B, I felt this is unreasonable so I must be wrong somewhere else. On the other hand, I could not distort my numbers hard enough to fit them in the $37B box (I chopped 2-3M from the iPhone units and 0.3M or so from iPad units).
The iPad may seem like obvious as we have the total and previous quarters. But we do not have the exact date and in a keynote they are not bound to follow the same definition of “sold” as in a GAAP SEC document (where items in the inventory channel are considered sold).
I have took a chance with Q1-14 numbers too, even if it is very risky to do that now, as I believe this will move AAPL tomorrow after hours an Tuesday more than Q4 result. Obviously, only Apple knows things like the 5s production capacity, whether China Mobile come to the table this quarter and so on. But I just had to put my hand in the black box.
I am trying to decide if I should take some profits tomorrow if AAPL goes up before the call or simply go all in. All comments are welcome. Thanks!