• 5

    Nicu 1:18 pm on November 4, 2013 - 1538 days ago

    I hope the numbers are good and that Apple cares to tell us today (even though the new mini is not out yet).

    Of course, this article is just reading tea leaves and no rigorous metrics are used, but we do not have too many statistical info and any positive counts as one until we have a (mild) proof of the contrary.


    • piero

      piero 4:23 pm on November 4, 2013 1538 days ago

      It’s interesting to add a survey in NY by Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White, that the majority of old iPad user that bought the new are iPad 2 owners (31%)… double than the 3 or original one.

    • ken

      ken 5:12 pm on November 4, 2013 1538 days ago

      unless you really wanted that retina display, the iPad 2 was the best forward design change. Not a coincidence the iPad 2 will remain in production for entry level. The Air is a bigger leap- I bought 2 and it’s really hit on all cylinders – size-weight-feel-display-speed … really love it

      • piero

        piero 11:45 pm on November 4, 2013 1538 days ago

        Ken, let’s be real and honest, come on. Even Bare Feats today doesn’t compare an iPad 2 with the later ones!! The iPad 2 is good for browsing, chatting and Social. Period.
        And it could be OK if it wasn’t a steal @ $399. It’s too much for the past and too little ($100) for the future.

      • piero

        piero 11:52 pm on November 4, 2013 1538 days ago

        And sorry but I missed a couple of lines from the historical Mac testing site:
        “What’s a mystery to me is why Apple doesn’t offer the iPad 4 with 16GB flash as the new entry level iPad. An iPad 2 for $399 is just too high a price to pay for a three year old iPad.”
        And this guys are testing Macs since Jobs returned to Apple…

      • ken

        ken 12:40 am on November 5, 2013 1538 days ago

        those are good points (age), but I like my wife iPad 2 better than my iPad 4 – retina display not withstanding due to weight and speed (they really pushed that retina display processing absorption). That opinion probably makes my thoughts too biased to properly apply to the market at large, so I’m probably wrong and iPad2 won’t sell very well at all. If so, the entry point for most would likely be the current mini, but given the light weight Air. I think the Air really put them back on top of the tablet market by a long shot, with the minis covering underneath.

  • Nicu 8:03 am on October 31, 2013 - 1542 days ago


    • piero

      piero 2:12 pm on October 31, 2013 1542 days ago

      I didn’t know he was a venture capitalist. Good for him!

  • 29

    Nicu 10:53 pm on October 27, 2013 - 1546 days ago

    I had a very hard time choosing between what I think are the natural forces at play and Apple’s “true” guidance. My “natural” numbers for revenue were above $40B but with a guidance of max $37B, I felt this is unreasonable so I must be wrong somewhere else. On the other hand, I could not distort my numbers hard enough to fit them in the $37B box (I chopped 2-3M from the iPhone units and 0.3M or so from iPad units).

    The iPad may seem like obvious as we have the total and previous quarters. But we do not have the exact date and in a keynote they are not bound to follow the same definition of “sold” as in a GAAP SEC document (where items in the inventory channel are considered sold).

    I have took a chance with Q1-14 numbers too, even if it is very risky to do that now, as I believe this will move AAPL tomorrow after hours an Tuesday more than Q4 result. Obviously, only Apple knows things like the 5s production capacity, whether China Mobile come to the table this quarter and so on. But I just had to put my hand in the black box.

    I am trying to decide if I should take some profits tomorrow if AAPL goes up before the call or simply go all in. All comments are welcome. Thanks!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:12 pm on October 27, 2013 1546 days ago

      btw, consensus for EPS is below $8 in Q4 and below $14 in Q1 – so I might just go all in after all ;)

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 6:57 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

        Going all in is always scary proposition. It’s a vabank type of bet (all in) more associated with gambling. I did it couple times. Brought tremendous profits at some times, put me almost on the street the others. I am much more cautious these days. It seems the more I try to rush things, slower my money grow. Looking to expand more my hedging strategies.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 7:45 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

          90+% of this “all in” was invested below $450, not during the last few weeks (and the more expensive ones are J15 calls); I wonder if I should convert some gains in cash or wait for more, with the risk of having less gains; I’m relatively far from my profits being wiped off – but as always, never say never ;)

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 6:59 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

      On other note, iCahn is in. That @!#$% doesn’t seem to be placing big money on losing bets.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:32 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

      Rev. $37.5B
      EPS $8.26
      iPhone 33.8M
      iPad 14.1M
      GM 37%

    • eatingbeets

      eatingbeets 8:36 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

      Why the sell off?!

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:40 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

        no idea, that’s what I was lamenting above, fist a $8-$10 jump an then a $39 plunge in a few dozens seconds, still scratching my head, nothing come out :(

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:45 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

        it seems consensus estimates for Q1 GM were just below 38%, all other “consensus” # were beaten

        maybe just the knee jerk sell on the news; I may miss something important, but I really think the stock reaction is crazy

        • eatingbeets

          eatingbeets 9:07 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

          perhaps the lack of CHL deal built into Q1 estimates?

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 9:14 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

        I was going to say it must be the golden iPhone, but iPhones were doing quite well. Maybe the lower margins ticked some investors off. Wait for open. Few days ago Netflix was up +$40 after earnings in after hours and closed actually down-$60 next day. In any case AAPL’s 50 day MA is @492. It should find some support there if it keeps coming down.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 9:46 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

        + $11 – those whacks are completely out of their minds !!!

        • Nicu

          Nicu 9:51 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

          I think that includes the +$3-$4 of today on my ETrade platform

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:04 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

      they are using the stupid new streaming tech, I thought they must provide reliable connection to the earnings call … as they have done until now :(

      • Nicu

        Nicu 9:13 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

        when I was less than ten years old, more than 25 years ago, my grandmother was listening to an illegal radio called Voice of America in a communist country; audio was much better than Apple’s streaming tech – is that called progress???

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 9:16 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

          Voice of America and Radio Free Europe. Those were the days!

          • piero

            piero 10:00 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

            Yes, sure!
            Now are the days of Ears of NSA… wherever you live, whatever you do, whoever you are…

            By the way, it’s time to clean this Wall Street from these gangsters…

    • piero

      piero 10:05 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

      I was forgetting: it’s time for Cook & Friends to give less space to bankers and investors and more to visionaries as Jony and who knows how many others. It’s time for an iPad for the masses at $ 199. If not, bye, bye, Apple! I’m done with them!

      • Nicu

        Nicu 10:25 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

        not for the next two years; and even then, I doubt the mini will get that cheap, just look at iPad 2 today

        those very cheap Chinese tablets are not Apple’s competitors, and the cheaper Samsung / Amazon / Motorola are not selling anywhere near enough to make Apple step back and think

        • piero

          piero 12:54 am on October 29, 2013 1545 days ago

          It certainly will, unfortunately…
          But will you (you Nicu) buy an iPad 2 for 399 and it’s only 16GB?… The answer is NO, of course. It’s too old for iOS 7, misses many features of iOS7 and 16GB are may be just enough for a 3 yrs old kid like mine… So why not a 64GB iPad 2 for 399?
          I bought a MacPro in 2006 but few years after it couldn’t run 64bit OS or applications… and it was 3.000 euro… The price dropped to a thousand euro, 1/3… So, perfect, let’s take the iPad 2 and sell it for a third of the Air, 3 years later… that means 199 or even less.. ;-)

          So on one side there is costs (heard Oppenheimer today?), on another there are bankers (GM, GM, GM!!!)), on the last one there is the real market and 399 for an iPad2 is a not serious or honest at all. You’ll buy something that the next day already lost 50% of the retail price and will not be compatible soon with the 64 bit transition. Not correct for Apple, not sure SJ would have allowed it.

          But you can turn it to MacPro: would you buy today an quad core MacPro 2012 for 2.300 US? ;-)

          Here are some opinion on Apple Store about it ” Can an iPad 2 get iOS 7?”:

          From there:
          Yes! But sadly, no Siri :(
          Answered by Brandee C from Farmington

          Yes, an iPad 2 can get iOS7 but be warned, whilst it doesn’t show this on the iPad 2 page on the Apple site; iOS 7 on iPad 2 *does not* support Air Drop. It does not support Air Drop on iPad 3 either, only on current iPad retina and iPad mini and iPhone 5x models.
          Answered by Mark A Oct 7, 2013

          Yes, but it slowed it down terribly
          Answered by Michael W from Glenville

          Yes, I have had my ipad2 for a month and I just installed ios7 and it is so much brighter.
          Answered by Debra E from Rancho Cordova Sep 30, 2013

          • Nicu

            Nicu 6:28 am on October 29, 2013 1544 days ago

            just two bits:
            • most people in the world have no clue what an A5, A7 or Haswell are; iPad 2 is a good enough replacement for a similarly priced laptop that would be heavier and would have shorter battery life
            • I am not arguing what Apple should do, what is right and what is not, just telling you to manage your expectations as an investor, based on historic trends

            • piero

              piero 3:23 pm on October 29, 2013 1544 days ago

              Thank you for the head up.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:36 pm on October 28, 2013 1545 days ago

      I think I have found the reason:
      “if you do loony things to get noticed, your stock soars, but if you marshal your resources to cover all the bases in a systematic way, even your successes count against you. That’s the insane world of Apple Inc.”

      • piero

        piero 12:58 am on October 29, 2013 1545 days ago

        He means: The insane world of Wall Street gangters…

    • Birra

      Birra 3:51 pm on October 29, 2013 1544 days ago

      Well I’ll be helping Apple by getting a MacBook Pro so I can run Mavericks (replacing my 2006 model) and an iPad Air with T-Mobile cellular free 200mb per month for life. Really like the bundled iWorks. Been using Pages across device and the web for awhile and loving it.

      With iPad school and enterprise penetration at over 90% long term is looking very good. A half dozen friends of mine have replaced their Androids with iPhones. These are high end customers. Not sure what per cent of users are or will be high end but it’s the best demographic to own.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 4:10 pm on October 29, 2013 1544 days ago

      so, again, I was too optimistic on iPhone numbers, which gave me a pretty bad score overall; I estimated the channel inventory would go up 2.5M, same sequential trends as last year + 9M vs. 5M sales in the opening w-e; we actually got 3.3M channel increase, but sales of older models dropped much harder than last year so the total was much lower than I expected (pretty much nailed ASP, but when units is wrong, you better be inversely wrong on ASP to get a better score ;) )

      the irony in all that is that I may get better score next quarter with my blind estimates of $58.6B vs. $55B-$58B guidance (I may be a little high on GM but I could not guess their change in deferred revenue / unit)

      in any case, the market seems even dizzier than me, oscillating hard both yesterday in after hours as today during the regular trading session

  • Nicu 5:57 pm on October 22, 2013 - 1551 days ago


    Is Apple ever going to figure out streaming? or this whole new thing called internet for that matter?

    • piero

      piero 6:37 pm on October 22, 2013 1551 days ago

      Had problems on iMac and MacBook Pro on 10.6, so I watched the event on the iPhone 3GS ios 5.1… ;-(

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:16 pm on October 22, 2013 1551 days ago

      so, all things expected, nothing more – I did not get my 4k displays, I will crawl with non-retina 27″ pig attached to my future Mac Pro until they decide to pull me out of the misery they force me into ;) , then losing a few hundreds on it in (hopefully) a few short months :(

    • ken

      ken 11:33 pm on October 22, 2013 1551 days ago

      no problems on the streaming here- must be Europe based issue;
      not disappointed though- new iPad looks great- will get 2 – and the mini-retina will sell big. keeping the iPad 2 and non-retina gives everybody a choice of what they want vs $s;

      I was hoping the Mac Pro would be available Nov 1, so the wait will be painful; I was pleasantly surprised at the starting price though (I figured more like $4k)- and that’s with 12GB memory. I’ll be loading one up with 1TB of flash and increasing memory and cores- probably run $5k or so. I wonder if they will announce 4K displays later in december when it’s available – I’d be getting 2 of those of they did;

      my son loves his new 64bit 5S and other family the 5Cs- most of my fan and friends really like iOS7 and it’s interface with one agreeing with consh on some of the icons looking too simplified – nobody hates it though and everybody loves everything else about it

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 3:47 am on October 23, 2013 1550 days ago

        Those icons is my biggest beef with it. Those white new switches I actually like very much. I think Ive is great in designing physical objects. He sucks at interface design. His extreme icon flattening comes across not as simple elegant but as retarded amateurish.

        • ken

          ken 4:20 am on October 23, 2013 1550 days ago

          Yeah that’s probably the biggest beef I’ve heard from some.Will be interesting if there’s enough back lash to make some refinements. I think the deep contrast and skeumorph is gone for good though. For people in your camp though I hope they can make enough tweaks to keep your patronage. I like the flatter icon with deeper background, but I can see the point you’re making and would certainly be good with some adjustments at the icon level.

    • ken

      ken 11:48 pm on October 22, 2013 1551 days ago

      biggest surprise for me was all free software going forward- OSX/iOS, iWork, iLife – I wouldn’t want to be Msoft right now

      • piero

        piero 3:43 pm on October 24, 2013 1549 days ago

        Agree, but I installed Mavericks and discovered that Safari 7 (I didn’t know that 6 was the same) doesn’t read RSS feeds anymore. Went online to Apple support: tons of complaining about RSS feeds since version 6.
        Feeds are my bread and I don’t eat without bread sorry Apple! But I’ll keep my setup with Snow and not browsing on iOS.

        There are certain things like Cloud computing that remind me of the beginning of personal computing especially Apple: a personal computer against the mainframe monopoly concept with dumb stations networked. bank use to work like that…
        Same was late 90s with RSS you had to have a reader since the browsers couldn’t read them, so double job: look at reader than go to browser to read the whole article, post.. Stupid. Silly.
        Cloud could be useful for mobile terminals but absolutely stupid for desktop or workstations.

  • Nicu 2:58 pm on October 22, 2013 - 1551 days ago


    Another flash crash just happened or what?

    • ken

      ken 11:38 pm on October 22, 2013 1551 days ago

      reports I see are- basically yes; computer generated sell-off of momentum stocks- took out Solar, Tesla, Apple, Nflix and others; I’m going to allocate some cash reserve and next time that happens I’m going to just buy against the computers- this time i just rode through it – Currently I’m pretty much all in- heaviest in a 3 legged stool – AAPL LEAPS, Tesla LEAPS, Solar LEAPS (group of three SCTY, SPWR, CSIQ)

  • Nicu

    Nicu 9:26 am on October 18, 2013 - 1555 days ago

    “The question technology pundits have been asking is, ‘How long before Apple crumbles?‘ There’s no math that supports such conjecture. Instead, the question that should be asked is, ‘How long before Apple’s remaining competitors exit the field?‘”


  • Nicu 4:27 pm on October 16, 2013 - 1557 days ago


    Apple earnings announced for Monday 28 – really strange uncharacteristic choice, I’m glad I did not get any Oct 25 options, I was ready to bet earnings will be next week.

    Maybe simply they want more exposure in the press for the keynote, not the blowing earnings and guidance … and then the alarm clock goes on :(


    Nicu 1:55 pm on October 4, 2013 - 1569 days ago


    in Nov 16 $540 C @ $3.5

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:30 pm on October 4, 2013 1569 days ago

    • calvin

      calvin 8:58 pm on October 30, 2013 1543 days ago

      Are you still holding these or sold them for a profit? It doesn’t look like there are any near term catalysts for the stock. Only possibility seems to be a guidance revision after iPad launch or later on account of better than expected sales.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 7:58 am on October 31, 2013 1542 days ago

        still holding, that’s why I was lamenting before earnings: should I stay or should I go?

        there is one small catalyst, iPad week-end; but more importantly, I think the selloff is unjustified, so just by recovering in the $530s this will make a nicer profit; and there is one wildcard, China Mobile :)

        I will keep them until Monday or Tuesday to see if any of that happens, if not, I will sell them with ease, even at a loss

  • Nicu 7:01 am on October 2, 2013 - 1571 days ago


    No rumors of 4K displays from Apple? I get a bit worried for my future Mac Pro … planning to get twins :)

  • 5

    Nicu 9:05 pm on September 29, 2013 - 1574 days ago

    “The second possibility is that investors are willing buy the stock, even at prices that exceed what they see as fundamental value, because they believe that they will be able to sell it higher prices still in the relatively near future. This is the basis for what is commonly called “momentum trading.” [...]”

    short logical nice read


    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:00 pm on September 30, 2013 1573 days ago

      There is one stock out there that goes up every day no matter what. Can you guess which one?

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 7:27 pm on September 30, 2013 1573 days ago

        Absolutely insane. And if people knew what I know about what’s coming in regard to fast charging technologies and super energy efficiency of electric motors they would know this field is going to blow everyone’s mind. Still, Tesla in relation to their earnings is way too overblown. But as you said it’s momentum trade. Bloody turtles! I was playing it as a contrarian. My bad.

    • ken

      ken 5:52 am on October 2, 2013 1571 days ago

      I’ve held all stock position and actually added a little LEAPS call position at $165 TSLA Regardless I agree with both of you! it’s way over valued and the expected scale ability is in appropriately correlated to Apple. Also agree with consh on the technology potential so I’ll hold long term positions regardless of what the market does. The last good entry level was lost, it’s a players game (after about $70) now and will stay that way most of the next years. Too disruptive to be otherwise. I advise stock or LEAPS if long and very short term highly monitored if short

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:26 pm on October 2, 2013 1571 days ago

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