today if there is one 
I would be very very glad to see it close to $260
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JPWatkins
That’s pretty interesting.
Thanks, Nicu.
How do we little guys make our way in this world? :-0BTW, Have you been able to write a “Current Pain” calculator yet?
And what do people make of the Friday pinnings? Does the equivalent of OE come every Friday now? -
Nicu
yep, I published some time ago the max pain calculator but it involves some work to get results (in fact to get the options chain)
http://www.traderhood.com/2010/08/16/aug-max-pain/but I observed that here they have pretty much up to date data (only for monthly options)
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.phpI don’t even see the weekly option chain on my platform, but if you do, you may use my little software
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caruso2323
@nicu
Can you use your little Softie to calculate the Weekly Maximum pain based on data accumulated at the end of wednesday’s , so that we get some correlation to nolavabo’s model ?
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nolavabo
Yes, every Friday is opex now. The only reason that it wasn’t pinned to $240 last week was that it would have needed to go red to do so, on a +180 Dow day.
Even the big pigs won’t waste their ammo when it was at $250 on Monday. They would have scooped up enormous numbers of suckers buying the $250 calls for a $242 (ish) close to still be very profitable.
My highly distilled analysis on it so far is this – take the closest round number based on the closing price of Wednesday, and it’ll be pinned to there.
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caruso2323
@nolavabo
I hear a great proportion of calls @250 today …
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Nicu
I do not have the data about the weekly option chain; if anyone has it, I am happy to help
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improved strike from $270 to $260 @ $3.3
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Nicu
exchanged $250 calls to $260 calls for $6.55 credit
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Nicu
In $270 calls @ $25
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conshmillo
By improved strike you mean you sold 270s and bought 260s and extra cost to you was 3.30?
By exchanged calls you mean you sold 250s and bought 260s and still pocketed 6.55 profit?
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Nicu
exactly, initially I had $250, $260 and $270 calls; now all of them are at $260
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Nicu
to avoid spamming the board too much (by creating a dedicated thread), I insert here a trade about Jan ’12 calls
exchanged Jan ’12 $240 calls to $250 calls for $6.15 credit
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Nicu
I have an order to exchange Jan ’11 $260 calls to $270 calls for $6.6 and got executed partially as I did not set as all or none – hardly waiting to get the rest as the resulted cash would be about 7% of my recently inflated portfolio
(the cash would also be equivalent to my salary for about 11 weeks) -
Nicu
COOOOOOL – the trade completed in 3 steps
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sworoc
I think it’s still going to drop a little more, might’ve been able to get them a tad cheaper. We will know in a week, good luck!
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caruso2323
@sworoc
I think it will act as an “M” … Rise today perhaps to 283-284 then drop again to 278… I think it will be pinned at 280 this week…If the market pulls back heavily, we may buy them at 265 before earnings… This is my “optimistic” scenario … But I would start accumulating in the 270-275 range for the REAL big run-up by the end of October : 300-330 maybe !… Guidance for FQ02-11 will be VERY NICE !…
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caruso2323
@caruso2323
WOW hitting 286 on big volume after release of ISM data with a +100 DIJA
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Nicu
I have other limits set
just not trying to guess exactly ! -
Nicu
exchanged Jan $270 calls to $280 calls for $6.6 credit
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Nicu
exchanged Jan ’12 $250 calls to $260 calls for $6.2 credit
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Nicu
exchanged Jan ’11 $280 calls to $290 calls for $7 (credit)
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Nicu
in Jan ’12 $360 calls @ $34 – I know I should have done that some time ago, but it’s only now that I have “too much” cash
– and we risk of staying above $330-$340 from now on … -
Nicu
in Nov $340 calls @ $7.35, not many, just for fun
(I mean, GREED is GOOD) -
nolavabo
Just be careful of playing OTM calls for earnings. The IV crush tomorrow morning will be severe, and you can end up losing money even if the stock rises.
The only way to reduce your exposure to IV crush is to buy deep ITM calls. For example, the $260 calls have an IV premium of only about $1, so there is nothing there to be crushed away. OTOH, they cost a frigging fortune, at $56.50 each.
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Nicu
I already have lots of ITM calls; I put most of the money in Jan ’12 calls so I have time to recover from the IV crush 
Nov calls is just greed, I do not want to totally avoid risk because I lost in a similar manner in August, I will just put little money in the risky things and more in those that I have 90%+ confidence
thanks
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Nicu
not so much fun now with those Nov calls, improved strike from $340 to $330 for $1.5
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Nicu
improved Jan ’12 $360 calls to $350 calls for $3.35
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Nicu
improved Nov $330 calls to $320 calls fro $2.7
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Nicu
exchanged Jan ‘12 $260 calls to $270 calls for $6.25 credit
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Nicu
I just got to my computer, but at open, the limit got triggered :
exchanged Jan ‘12 $270 calls to $280 calls for $6.2 credit -
Nicu
in more Nov $320 calls @ $2, averaging down …
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Nicu
in Jan ’11, $280 puts @ $6 – insurance for previous gains
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Nicu
exchanged Jan ’11 $290 calls to $300 calls @7.05
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Nicu
I kept those Jan ’11 $270 calls I got @ $25 on 4th October (see first page) separate from the swing algorithm so I got out @ $51.2 few moments ago, that is a bit over 100% gain in one month
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Nicu
improved Jan ’11 $280 puts to $290 puts @ $2, cheap insurance
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Nicu
improved Jan ’11 $290 puts to $300 puts for $1.1, same idea
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Nicu
improved Jan ‘12 $350 calls to $340 calls for $3.35
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improved strike from $260 to $250 in 2 lots, one @ $3, the other @ $2.75
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Nicu
reversed the operation : exchanged $250 calls for $260 calls for $7.05 credit, that is about 160% profit
still a battle to be profitable on the entire play, i.e. until I am out of Oct calls
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Nicu
again, pocketed $7.15 by selling $260 calls and buying the same number of $270 calls
I am pretty sure that now I’m positive on that Oct play if I take into account the current price of the $270 calls; if AAPL continues up next week, I’ll try to exchange those to Nov calls (that should appear) at minimal cost and of course a $10 strike penalty
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Nicu
exchanged Oct. $270 calls to Nov. $280 calls for $.05 credit – just to cover the fees
earnings could not arrive soon enough
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sworoc
Interesting way to ride things out, Nico! Glad to see it working for you. AAPL is really starting to pop.
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Nicu
in Oct $250 puts @ $1.12 (trailing stop – I am not betting on winning on those, just cheap protection agains the devil
– if I had something similar this summer things would be much rosier now) -
conshmillo
nice going Nicu!
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Nicu
improved Oct $250 puts to $260 puts for $.60 – just cheap insurance here
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Nicu
improved Oct $260 puts to $270 puts for $.4 – extremely cheap insurance for the little time left before the rocket launch (18th after hours)
just gimme another flash crash so I can load up the truck
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caruso2323
Nicu … Did you notice that those “fat fingers” never caused a MAJOR RUN-UP … ?
lol -
Nicu
are you talking about “fat tails” ? or what …
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Nicu
exchanged Nov $280 calls to $290 calls for $6.8 credit
I think that now I got them for free, considering all the swings I did with those Oct calls they come from, meaning that if they go to 0 tomorrow, I don’t lose a dime; still have to verify that … the guns are loaded for the big day (19th Oct)
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Nicu
oct puts expired (total $2.12 / put + fees), that is always the best ending for insurance, not being used
I’ll try to get a bit more of Jan ’11 puts to protect gains if there is a pop on Thursday
I have 2 more days to fight with those pesky VIX puts that are priced at less than 50% of the difference strike – VIX, but expiry should force that to go to 100% at least – of course I need VIX to stay low (or go lower) as I still have puts for both 21 and 19 (I already have recovered about 80% of the cost, but I start getting greedy
) -
Nicu
exchanged Nov $290 calls to $300 calls for $7.1 credit
– those are pure profits as they had already payed for themselves since the last swing trade -
Nicu
out of some VIX 21 Nov puts (expiring today) @ $1 – I am already positive on the VIX puts adventure, I may only hope to get a bit more on those that I still keep
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Nicu
out of some more VIX 21 puts at $.75 as the situation becomes a bit crazy, still keeping some, who knows
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Nicu
ok, I’m out out this craziness with the rest of them @ $.4 – I’ll compute by curiosity what all this effort made
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Nicu
including fees and comparing to the maximum invested at one time, I made about 27% profit on the VIX play in 5 months (not everything invested from the start)
I took this risk hoping for 200% profit or so, that would allow to go into calls afterwards with no risk, but in the meantime, the market got smart both about VIX puts and calls and it became much harder and riskier that it seemed 5 months ago – I’m still a bit disappointed that I did not get into those ultra-cheap 5 months calls in May, they have multiplied more than 10x during that period; I’ll keep watching it, maybe when VIX comes down to 15, everybody will be bullish and sell cheap calls again … until then, I would not advise anyone to try this crazy thing
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Nicu
exchanged Nov $300 calls to $310 calls : 1/3 yesterday at close @ $7.05, the rest today @ $7.75
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Nicu
$310 and $320 calls expired worthless, I should add a rule to my trading strategy, never own options during the last week (month even, if reasonable) before expiration
I still think I have a profit on the entire play that I started in May or so, I will compute that when I get some time – but far from the maximum it touched about a month ago
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for the Mac growth in Government purchases, but who knows ?
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any idea why everything is going up like crazy ?
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carlmuck
I assume its the “news” about the “Special Event.” If i read the tea leaves correctly this will be the “iTV” or re-branded AppleTV, launch. Probably announcing deals with several TV content providers too.
There really SHOULD have been pent up demand, given the action over the last week, and the event seemed like a good enough reason to start buying.
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Nicu
so we are answering each other in parallel threads
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Nicu
the chat room cannot come too soon, consch
no pushing, just pom-pom-ing -
carlmuck
Also, oil closed over $72.50, which was kind of unexpected given the earlier inventory numbers.
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caruso2323
snap back as NASDAQ is oversold
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carlmuck
Yes I guess parallel threads. To really confuse watchers, yes there’s lots of un-spent testosterone on the floor. Given any excuse (like actually working to a positive day after the ugly start, the oil strength, bond “weakness”) we were due for a bounce. Question is does it hold through the UE claims tomorrow, which can’t help (given the last 3 weeks) but “surprise” do the down side (525000).
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caruso2323
@carlmuck
Maybe a 525K is already factored in … So there might be a chance for a continuation…What may have boosted AAPL’s rise despite the morning weakness is that the Media event has been ADVANCED relative to the September 7 event … as it is announced to be scheduled on September 1 …
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carlmuck
@caruso2323
2 months ago I would have been looking for a good surprise. The last 6 weeks have beaten me pretty bad, I’m now expecting bad things…
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carlmuck
Its nice to see AAPL continue up while the rest have levelled off (its early though).
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caruso2323
@carlmuck
AH looks good … High of 243.89 with over 200K shares so far …This may be due to Munster’s recommendation to buy AAPL before the Sep. 1 event, arguing that over the past 5 years AAPL rose by 12%, and 22% at the end of Sep, and the end of december … respectively…
So let’s say AAPL reaches 250 by Sep 1 , we may test 279 at the end of Sep… and test 300 by the end of Dec…
Hmmm … I think this is possible but has nothing to do with the event … AAPL is way oversold
What will move this stock is nothing else but that PR on iP4′s and iPads …-
carlmuck
@caruso2323
I guess we’ll see what tomorrow brings. It is nice to see additional gains in the post market trading.
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caruso2323
I bet we close the down-gap today (253.00- 275.40) … What a relief this morning…
Get ready for the slingshot release effect … I expect a 4-6 + on AAPL
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caruso2323
Ooops typo : 243.00-247.40 …
Need a second cup of coffee ! … wow …We need to break decisively through resistance at 245.70
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China Telecom wants to work with Apple if they build a CDMA phone, which they should, you won’t have LTE reliable in China anytime soon.
It may not be desperation yet as it did not really catch there yet, just good business planing
No link because it’s in the trading platform, no text, just the title.
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Nicu
another take, don’t know which is the “source”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703846604575447531699309858.html -
nolavabo
There’s an interesting dynamic at work, which will contribute to the demise of MS.
Since the PC entered the office, it has been supported by an army of IT workers. The IT dept dictates to the users what machine they will get, what OS is loaded, what apps they will use and what kind of network they log onto. The user has *no* say in the matter. Even Directors and CEOs defer to the IT dept in this matter. They may get a more expensive laptop but ultimately it is loaded up and set up the same way. Lacking the depth of knowledge necessary to take on the IT dept, they shrug their shoulders and just accept it. These IT depts are full of MS (and *nix) fanboys. Try asking for a Mac in this environment – not only won’t they buy you one, in 90% of cases they won’t even let you connect it to the network.
Along came the iPhone. Suddenly execs were carrying their work BB and their personal iPhone. This struck them as stupid, as the iPhone was capable of doing everything the BB could (and more), but in a much more elegant and pleasing way. And then Directors and CEOs were carrying iPhones. This is a different situation. This is a person in power telling the IT dept to *make it work*. The original stumbling blocks of security and MS Exchange support having been removed with OS updates, iPhones were grudgingly allowed in. And now these Directors are using their iPhones and seeing the competition bring out apps, so now they’re pushing their own companies to put out an iPhone app. I personally haven’t heard of a single company in France building an Android app, but I can name 2 dozen that are building iPhone apps right now.
And splashing down into the middle of this is the iPad. No need to explain what it is, everybody already knows because of iPhone. And the company servers already support iOS, thanks to the CEO busting some heads in the IT dept to get his own iPhone hooked up.
The iPhone was the Trojan horse. We talked some time back about the incredible discipline that Apple/Jobs had to see the iPad prototype 4 years ago and then patiently go and build a phone first. There is *no way* that had Apple gone with iPad first that it could have drilled down into the fortress of corporate IT depts the way that the iPhone did. Sheer genius.
And that is why iOS will finally get Apple inside the Fortune 500 in a major way. Once the soldiers get out of the horse, and kill all the gatekeepers, the portals can be opened for the Mac troops to storm the citadel.
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GotWake
@nolavabo
Absolutely dead on my friend. I think the halo effect will be much slower on the corporate end. But, it’s happening. I think the introduction of the iPad is pushing this along a little faster. Steve and Co. need to make the flow between the iPad and Mac much better.The only way Apple is getting into big business is top down. CEOs, CFOs and executives demanding iPads, iPhones and Macbook Pros. I guess IT departments have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the future…… hmmm, sounds like some companies, (cough) Nokia, Motorola, HTC, (the late) Palm, Dell, HP, Acer…….
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RattyUK
Also a lot of that first batch of students that went Mac around the time of the iPhone are now being employed by businesses and will start to demand Macs. The resistance to Macs in the work force is starting to fall. It will be really interesting when this batch of people get promoted to positions of power in IT too…
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in AAPL @ $240.13, slowly rebuilding my stock position that I have destroyed fighting the margin call (’cause a shorted put – what a mistake)
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mikeinmontreal
I am waiting for after labor day before making any moves. Too many economic reports/data to digest over the next 2 weeks. I don’t believe any of it to be favorable. Going to try to average down on my Jan 11 calls before the September iPod event and October earnings call.
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conshmillo
got some October calls already around 240.
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nolavabo
AAPL will be pinned to 240 unless the SPX can get back to 1100 territory. Overlay the Dow or SPX with the pins over the last few weeks, and there’s a loose correlation.
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mikeinmontreal
I believe Opex is tomorrow, so likely a pin at 240 tomorrow. I see a drop to low 230s due to negative GDP report Friday and negative unemployment report the following Friday. Then maybe a gap up for the September event and earnings season.
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Nicu
in AAPL @ $243.38 -> the limit was @ $240.13 but the $3 trailing stop won this time
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Nicu
more AAPL @ $242.85, a strengthened limit + trailing stop order again
I’m now comfortable with the number of share I have, I will probably get a bit more after I cash some options
not selling under $400
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caruso2323
Hey Nicu ! … Congrats … You could have sold those add. shares for $244.40 AH …
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Nicu
and from another angle of view
http://blogs.computerworld.com/16816/android_army_plans_ipad_overthrow -
GotWake
They will probably give the dang things away to gain market share. As jumbled up as the their mobile updates are, I can’t imagine how bad it will be when they throw in a tablet version. I guess it gives the malware makers another target.
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RattyUK
It’s kind of weird that everyone is screaming “Android tablet” while even the developer of Android has a different solution for tablets? Google want Chrome OS to succeed and yet all their “partners” are trying desperately make Android the future OS. We live in fun times.
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rastard
I think your premise that Google wants ChromeOS to succeed *on tablets* might be incorrect.
ChromeOS is Google’s netbook solution, and from everything I can see (well, that I can *understand* is probably more accurate) on the Chromium OS site (http://www.chromium.org/chromium-os), it isn’t designed to support touchscreen input (hence not designed for tablets).
Android, in contrast, is designed as a mobile device platform (not only phones, but GoogleTV and other consumer electronics as well).
Have you actually seen any press releases/blog posts/statements directly from Google indicating that ChromeOS is their preferred tablet platform?
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RattyUK
@rastard
Interesting… You appear to be correct. Problem with picking up stuff through the net is that there is a lot of hard work to sort the wheat from the chaff.This was the initial Manfesto for Chrome:
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/07/introducing-google-chrome-os.html
All I can say for them is that it does look, with the influx of the iPad, that netbooks are last year’s thing.
The chaos for Android on a tablet is that most of the software has been developed for phones. On that Samsung tablet thing that has got the fans excited today – have a look at how much screen real estate in the browser is being used by the address bar. Fine on a phone but about 3 times bigger than it needs to be on a 7 inch tablet. Yes, people will make do but really when one uses an iPad you “feel” the difference. Ho hum.
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rastard
“the chaos for Android on a tablet is that most of the software has been developed for phones. ”
Couldn’t the same thing have been said when the iPad first rolled out (that most of the software was developed for iPhones)?
Re: netbooks. I have no desire to buy one myself, but am actually looking forward to buying a ChromeOS netbook for my mom to use. I recently spent nearly an hour teaching her how to cut and paste, another teaching her how to save/save as, and yet another teaching her how to launch and close apps. It even took me 15 minutes to teach her how to double click and right-click a mouse. Since *everything* she does is in a browser, I’d love to do away with everything that isn’t the browser — which as I understand it is what ChromeOS is.
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GotWake
It’s because the “partners” are all followers. It amazes me that Apple smashed the mobile market into pieces way back in 2007 and instead of taking the bull by the horns, the entire mobile industry sat on their thumbs until another outsider (Google) came in to lead them. I find it rather pathetic.
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conshmillo
That is exactly why Apple will win in the end. Android is for nerds. Not that there is anything wrong with being a nerd but in the end they are tiny minority. Niche market. And it will not improve as nerd can’t un-nerd himself and produce different more human product down the line.
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RattyUK
Well kinda, except that things like the Safari app for the iPad was designed for the iPad. Afaik and from the screenshots of the Sammy today it looks like they are using the current phone version of the browser which, as I mentioned, appears to take up way too much space on the screen. Also remember that when the iPad was designed there was only one iPhone and things like apps could easily be doubled on the screen. I have very little idea how the current version of Android scales and I am pretty certain that the official larger screen versions of Android aren’t supposed to ship until V3.0 So I think anyone making a tablet with the current OS will be having to hack the display stuff to make it work. Again off the top of my head and it is late, so I might be completely wrong.
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Nicu 9:35 am on September 3, 2010 624 days ago Reply
it look like a nice battle around $255
RattyUK 10:30 am on September 3, 2010 624 days ago Reply
$260 would be very nice yes.
sworoc 11:07 am on September 3, 2010 624 days ago Reply
Looks like 255 today. Bummer.
carlmuck 12:02 pm on September 3, 2010 624 days ago Reply
$255 isn’t an option strike in AAPL… the pinning theory is that it is the strike with the most open interest. Which today is $250 in the weeklies, (~13K calls, ~9K puts) and both the $250 and $260 montly strikes (9/18 expiry) have ~40K open interest (~40K for $250 and ~43K $260).
So supposedly pressure is on to get price close to $250. However with a total volume of ~15M shares, the 220,000 shares represented by the options can’t exert much influence in a day when the sentiment is positive and new $ are flowing into the stock.
caruso2323 1:04 pm on September 3, 2010 624 days ago Reply
It is quite likely that the downgap recorded on Aug-11-2010 257.55 to 255.69 may get filled… The last 15 cents (today’s max so far has been this morning 257.40) …
The only thing though : The volume is not convincing … I suspect this is a “short squeeze” rally, combined with daily traders who will probably book their profits especially before this long week-end… In case of a pull-back I suspect the 50 day moving average @254.80 should act as support by the end of the day.
caruso2323 1:05 pm on September 3, 2010 624 days ago Reply
Ooops I was not looking at the trading … The down-gap just got filled as I was typing my previous post
carlmuck 1:45 pm on September 3, 2010 624 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
Happily, it looks like 260 is being an attractor now!
conshmillo 1:56 pm on September 3, 2010 624 days ago Reply
Technically we have still strong northern winds. Employment report gave extra jolt today in that direction so they’ll probably go with 260 this week (if they can). Any round number of 10 is better for them than anything between as they are writing both calls and puts. Weekly expiration closest to that 10 rounder allows them to make most money as both calls and puts closest to those 10 rounders expire worthless.