Body
  • TRADE

    Nicu 7:45 pm on January 30, 2015 - 788 days ago

    8
    Nicu

    in Jan 30 $118 P @ 2c – not much $ value, but max pain was at $112 at close yesterday, who knows?

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:22 pm on January 30, 2015 788 days ago

      out of 25% of those @ 25c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:41 pm on January 30, 2015 788 days ago

      out of 25% more @ 75c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:50 pm on January 30, 2015 788 days ago

      out of the remaining 50% @ 70c – tried to aim for $116 but it may go either way so I have just cut it short, 10 min. before close

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 8:52 pm on January 30, 2015 788 days ago

        very nice

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:57 pm on January 30, 2015 788 days ago

          thanks ;)

          was upset of not selling my 300 $120 C at 50+c earlier today, waiting for it to break $120, got a bit of “revenge” / game for the evening !

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:55 pm on January 30, 2015 788 days ago

      total investment: 65 minutes + $563.63 (200 P + fees)
      net output: $11816.25

      not too shabby for such fuzzy concept as MaxPain

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 9:08 pm on January 30, 2015 788 days ago

        It’s a damn magnet. All of us in the game should pay more attention to it. I guess it’s going to be pretty nice weekend for you.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 10:57 pm on January 30, 2015 788 days ago

          Yep, but those puts were just the icing on the cake. I have made a net of $65.6k on Jan 30 calls (cashed in about $120k this week, all bought during the last two weeks), about $11.2k on Jan 23 calls last week and $9.8k playing Jan 17 puts the week before.

          Not quite a full mirror opposite of last year’s January, but those were on top of Jan 17 calls that I have kept for a long time and only cashed in this month.

          All in all, I have nothing in AAPL right now, I have increased AXPW and AXPWW positions (losses ?), and from basically no cash at the beginning of the month, it is about $290k cash right now.

          I hope there will be waves in both directions so I can surf ;)

          Have a nice w-e all!

  • Nicu 11:52 pm on January 29, 2015 - 789 days ago

    1
    Nicu

    AMZN should not come from amazon but from Amazing … 45c per share that is already $311 and it goes up 14% AH

    Compare to AAPL, $3.06 EPS, shares at $110 and it goes up $6

    People are Amazing …

     
    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 1:18 am on February 4, 2015 784 days ago

      Well, the market is just reflecting the underlying intrinsic quality and value that Amazon has, right . . . !?

  • Nicu 1:15 pm on January 26, 2015 - 793 days ago

    7
    Nicu

    Axion CEO died unexpectedly yesterday morning. This is quite a shock for me, as I had him over the phone Friday afternoon for about a half an hour and he seemed in good shape, and told me he has to get going as there is stuff to do towards the end of our conversation.

    RIP David DiGiacinto

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 7:05 pm on January 26, 2015 792 days ago

      Sorry to hear that. Was it an accident, stress related or long term sickness?

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:38 pm on January 26, 2015 792 days ago

        No idea. Only “unexpectedly” was in the PR. He did not seem too stressed, not joyful or overly optimistic either, but more like set on a goal and knowing it won’t be easy.

        Indeed, looks like another bad hand in along, uninterrupted streak, since I’ve known this company.

        Slowly, I manage to write this loss off in my head. I consider everything lost already, and I will try to recover what can be recovered with the B-warrants, without damaging the stock or the company. If some miracle happens and they get back on track, I will just take it as a gift, not “good investment” or equivalent.

        If my AAPL earnings play provides lots of cash, I might even go in a last large block of AXPW. I’m not sure I could explain why, maybe it’s just stupid.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 7:14 pm on January 26, 2015 792 days ago

      All I could find was that he was 61. Looks like you can’t catch a break on this one.

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 6:31 pm on January 27, 2015 791 days ago

      Yikes!
      Never fails to amaze me how “anything can happen.”

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:13 pm on January 28, 2015 790 days ago

      I think today was the craziest day during the last 3.5 years in Axion trading. Not only huge volume, second only to the day of the October public offer, but a jump to 70c from 38.6c.

      There was of course the news of a partnership for them to sell their power cubes. But for many hours, there was no reaction. At least bizarre.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:04 pm on January 29, 2015 790 days ago

        There is still heavy trading in AXPW, many trades hitting the ask … I do not believe it, but I like it !

      • SB

        SB 5:57 pm on January 29, 2015 789 days ago

        The March ’14 .10 to .20 double was pretty crazy, too, as I don’t recollect any news around that move. This partnership announcement as catalyst is perplexing, too, as on the surface it is simply a marketing agreement.

  • TRADE

    Nicu 8:51 pm on January 15, 2015 - 803 days ago

    24
    Nicu

    in Jan 30 $115 C @ $1.24

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:52 pm on January 15, 2015 803 days ago

      those are for earnings, will get more if they get cheaper

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:24 pm on January 16, 2015 803 days ago

      wanted to buy more @ $1 yesterday evening and ended up with an fat finger error, got some 20% more @ $1.2

    • Nicu

      Nicu 4:28 pm on January 16, 2015 803 days ago

      doubled the entire bet @ 95c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:57 pm on January 20, 2015 799 days ago

        improved all $115 C to $113 C @ 40c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:46 pm on January 28, 2015 790 days ago

        reversed: exchanged all $113 C to $115 C for $1.45 credit (wanted more all day, but it’s better than nothing; if it goes up tomorrow, I have leverage, if it goes down, I have cash)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:14 pm on January 16, 2015 803 days ago

      in Jan 30 $114 C @ $1

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:20 pm on January 20, 2015 799 days ago

        improved all $114 C to $112 C @ 50c

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:48 pm on January 28, 2015 790 days ago

          exchanged all $112 C to $115 C for $2.35 (again, I want much closer to $3, but better than losing it tomorrow because of communists in Greece)

      • Nicu

        Nicu 2:35 pm on January 27, 2015 792 days ago

        in $114 C @ $2.25 – half the quantity of those $112 C, trying to sell a spread in two steps; IV is so high, I feel I will not get my price for the spread even if AAPL goes to $120 before close today; worst case, more leverage for earnings

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:52 pm on January 27, 2015 791 days ago

          doubled $114 C position @ $1.75

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:59 pm on January 28, 2015 790 days ago

          exchanged all $114 C to $115 C for 68c credit

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:16 pm on January 23, 2015 795 days ago

      in Jan 30 $117 C @ $1.50

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:52 pm on January 27, 2015 791 days ago

        improved all $117 C to $115 C @ 56c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:02 pm on January 23, 2015 795 days ago

      in Jan 30 $118 C @ $1.1

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:24 pm on January 27, 2015 791 days ago

        improved all $118 C to $116 C @ 50c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:03 pm on January 23, 2015 795 days ago

      in Jan 30 $116 C @ $1.71

      • Nicu

        Nicu 5:28 pm on January 29, 2015 789 days ago

        out of all $116 C @ $1.55 (including those improved above from $118 C; using a 10c trailing after aiming for a better price)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:54 pm on January 27, 2015 791 days ago

      in Jan 30 $120 C @ 40c – for a total of 400 calls at strike $112, $113, $114, $115, $116 and $120

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 9:07 pm on January 27, 2015 791 days ago

        wow, that’s a quite conviction for such close expiration.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 9:40 pm on January 27, 2015 791 days ago

          we have this opportunity once a year; and actually it’s a winning bet every two years; last year my AAPL position melted a bit more than a quarter million (more than half the portfolio at that time) in January alone; I want my revenge ;)

          • conshmillo

            conshmillo 9:51 pm on January 27, 2015 791 days ago

            looking good in AH

      • Nicu

        Nicu 2:44 pm on January 29, 2015 790 days ago

        tripled $120 C position @ 7c – an easy out of lower strikes (while keeping leverage) if the unbelievable happens (some pps growth after the greatest earning in history – it is less than $3 higher than Monday’s close)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:26 pm on January 29, 2015 789 days ago

      exchanged all $115 C to $117 C @ $1.5 credit (there were many $115 C coming from several exchanges from yesterday, that’s why I post it here)

      • Nicu

        Nicu 11:10 pm on January 29, 2015 789 days ago

        out of all $117 C @ avg. $2.01 (one minute before close, chasing the falling / rising price on my phone, in the pool club; tried at $3, $2.5, $2.30 – it was the ask for a little while, $2.20 I think, then about a third caught at $2.05 and the remainder at $2)

        still keeping those 300 $120 C in case of a miracle tomorrow ;)

  • 3
    Nicu

    Nicu 2:35 pm on January 13, 2015 - 806 days ago

    Lots of options in existence (2.285 M calls, 2.944 M puts), as they were available for about two stormy years. So I have computed Max Pain, the closing price that would minimise the total value of options (TOV) expiring this Friday (in existence as of yesterday’s close).

    Max Pain is $100, TOV = $1.672B
    Other points: $95 – TOV = $1.824B, $105 – TOV = $1.775B, $110 – TOV = 42.089B, $115 – TOV = $2.641

    So, despite the fact that I would like it to be above $115 on Friday (and that it looks very green as of now), signs point to below $110. I will try to get out of calls as soon as possible and reinforce my puts position on the cheap.

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:37 pm on January 13, 2015 806 days ago

      Usually, Max Pain starts to be manifest itself during the second half of the week, but anything is possible, including stronger forces than Max Pain changing the picture.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:26 am on January 14, 2015 805 days ago

      “$110 – TOV = 42.089B” -> “$110 – TOV = $2.089B”, of course, it’s less than $4B even at $120

      anyway, I feel there’s an issue with my graph, by theory, it should be convex (angle of the tangent increasing) – I will investigate today !

      • Nicu

        Nicu 9:46 am on January 14, 2015 805 days ago

        OK, it’s because the non-integer strikes, that make larger and smaller intervals on the x-axis for the strikes; Numbers does not change spacing and I’m not going to work to have a 100% correct picture as long as values are fine ;)

  • TRADE

    Nicu 3:31 pm on January 9, 2015 - 810 days ago

    18
    Nicu

    not a real trade yet, just an open position for a small lot of
    long Jan 23 $111 C @ $2.5

    the reason is that I have extra cash so I take a bit more risks, instead of selling spreads I will decouple the two legs and do an diagonal spread: I will try to sell the corresponding Jan 17 $109 C for at least $4.5 next week – that would mean getting 100+% of the spread in cash and getting a week extension on the expiration

    of course this is by taking extra risk that if the stock falls, I will be left holding the bag with those new worthless calls (the magic $4.5 moment could never come)

    second reason: to my eye, it looks like max pain is somewhere $110-$111 today, but not many options in existence so it should trade more with the market; but $111- makes the $2.5 price reasonable … maybe I should watch / adjust it instead of telling tales ;)

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:36 pm on January 9, 2015 810 days ago

      already changed to $2.25, I do not really like when I get what I ask for too easily

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:02 pm on January 12, 2015 807 days ago

      in Jan 23 $111 C @ $2.10 – quantity: a quarter of those Jan 17 $108 C I have

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:21 pm on January 16, 2015 803 days ago

        doubled bet @ 48c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:21 pm on January 20, 2015 799 days ago

        improved all $111 C to $109 C @ 45c

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:10 pm on January 22, 2015 796 days ago

          did the exact reverse:
          exchanged all $109 C to $111 C for $1.8 credit – I get all the cash used for this play back and I keep leverage with the calls until tomorrow

          • conshmillo

            conshmillo 8:54 pm on January 22, 2015 796 days ago

            Yeah. If it goes your way, sell the spread for credit, which you did here. If it goes against you buy the spread for debit. Although extremely short term expirations may make it bit nerve wrecking.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 6:27 pm on January 23, 2015 795 days ago

          exchanged all $111 C to $113 C (expiring in 2h32m) for $1.85 credit

          • Nicu

            Nicu 9:01 pm on January 23, 2015 795 days ago

            out of all $113 C @ 3c (about 1c eaten by fees LOL)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:13 pm on January 12, 2015 806 days ago

      in Jan 17 $112 C @ 65c – (3/4 of # of Jan $108 C) just preparing an easier exit in case it goes up this week

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:12 pm on January 15, 2015 803 days ago

        out of all Jan 17 $112 C @ 3c – take the full loss and recoup some fees for other trades

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 9:08 pm on January 14, 2015 804 days ago

      I’m in @1.64

      • Nicu

        Nicu 6:42 am on January 15, 2015 804 days ago

        be aware that this is still before earnings that will take place on 27; that’s why Jan 30 options are so much more expensive

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 7:52 pm on January 15, 2015 803 days ago

          Well aware of it. Thanks.

          • Nicu

            Nicu 12:31 pm on January 26, 2015 793 days ago

            I assume you got out as they were ITM?

            • Nicu

              Nicu 12:32 pm on January 26, 2015 793 days ago

              OK, haven’t noticed the message below. What do you mean by rolled and out?

            • conshmillo

              conshmillo 7:02 pm on January 26, 2015 792 days ago

              just got out of them and then bought week5 call below. which I got out of actually too and bought feb15 216 calls.

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 5:19 pm on January 21, 2015 797 days ago

        rolled and out for +1.17. trying to enter next week’s 114 call

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 5:27 pm on January 21, 2015 797 days ago

          In jan5 15 114 C @ 1.68

  • TRADE

    Nicu 7:14 pm on January 5, 2015 - 813 days ago

    23
    Nicu

    It’s getting harder to locate where I have posted all my AAPL options trades. So I will start a new thread.

    exchanged all of my Jan. 17 $88.57 C to $100 C for $11 credit
    improved all $112.14 C to $111 C for 32c (+ fees, in two trades)

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:29 pm on January 5, 2015 813 days ago

      improved again to $110 C @ 24c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:38 pm on January 6, 2015 813 days ago

        improved again to $109 C, 23c net debit

        • Nicu

          Nicu 7:04 pm on January 13, 2015 805 days ago

          out of all $109 C @ $1.95 – risk off !

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 8:41 pm on January 5, 2015 813 days ago

      Nicu, help me here. Could you explain once more what terms “exchanged” and “improved” exactly mean? If you don’t mind saying what’s your strategy behind those is. How do you rotate them? What rule needs to be met for you to take action? Like today is highly negative day for Dow and you took action. Why?

      • Nicu

        Nicu 9:22 pm on January 5, 2015 813 days ago

        I use exchanged mostly for cashing in a call spread (for which I own only the lower leg – I do not properly have an open spread, just a naked position), meaning I sell the lower strike and buy the higher one (thus somewhat downgrading the calls, higher strike is not as good as lower strike – but hey, nothing is better than cash!). In the case above I took $11 cash in hand from a $11.43 call spread, or around 96% of max theoretical profit out of this spread. I usually sell the spread when is above 60% of max theoretical gain (the strike difference) but of course I prefer 70+% when possible. This was a special situation, I did not want to realise too much paper profits in 2014, so instead of selling long ago at 70% of max gain, I took extra risk and then paid for protection via puts.

        “improved” means that I buy the spread for which I already own the higher strike, in practice I replace higher strike calls with lower strike calls; therefore I am somewhat upgrading the calls, but of course I have to pay for that; I tend to do that when the price is below 30% of max gains, in special situations (like in december when I was keen to realise paper loss) I could go a bit higher; in the case above I have paid 25% of max gain, because I have so little time until expiration; should the last two trading days play in reverse in the short term, I could double or triple this amount (getting 50% or 75% of the spread in cash)

        if I’m not mistaken, I have cashed in those calls (spreads) that are now at $110 with the above algorithm, from around $600 C ($85.71) to $790 C ($112.86), so in a way they have already paid about $20 each (post spilt), more than 10x original price (about summer 2013 when I got cash from TSLA short squeeze, I got in AAPL calls and after several “improvements” I had a lot of $580 C, one of $600 C and two at $620 C – I have cashed a lot of them already, otherwise I could not have lost so much (on paper!) with Axion

        • Nicu

          Nicu 9:39 pm on January 5, 2015 813 days ago

          I am explaining reasons and strategy here, but if you simply want to formally read the trades, the two words “improved” and “exchanged” can be stripped away, e.g.

          exchanged all of my Jan. 17 $88.57 C to $100 C for $11 credit
          means
          in $100 C, out of $88.57 C – $11 net credit (same # of options on both sides)

          improved all $112.14 C to $111 C for 32c
          means
          in $111 C, out of $112.14 C – $0.32 net debit

        • Zee

          Zee 4:54 am on January 6, 2015 813 days ago

          You’ve used the term algorithm a few times before. Is it yours? Of your own design? I take it it’s a set of instructions and you enter in key identities to be factored with a variance outcome? Like +/xyz/-. I’m just guessing. And after the AXPW stuff I wonder like wow is he a mad scientist? Just kidding. But if you do feel like explaining a bit that’d be super. Cheers.

          • Nicu

            Nicu 6:58 am on January 6, 2015 813 days ago

            I say algorithm because that’s what I call even a cooking recipe (by definition it is). Instructions how to do something, not necessarily executed by a computer / robot, but in this case by me, by hand. And yes, I have more or less designed it, but only by trying different things and keeping what worked best for me. It is a way to take partial profits when there are some, while keeping leverage almost intact.

            About Axion, I cannot be sure of anything, but I promise you it is much more reasonable than what I did with TSLA: I have discovered the short squeeze possibility about two years before it happened and then bought crazy out of the money calls for as long as I had some spare cash (i.e. about 20 months, renewing every few months the calls that expired). Despite advices that I should not get my panties twisted in a bunch, short squeezes appear only once is a while, and 99+% stocks out there never experience it. I have missed my target by a short while: I took out about $200k in a few months when it arrived, but shout it have happened 10 days earlier, it would have been $1+M. Should it have started in January instead of April, by the same algorithm, I would have taken out about $4M. Should Apple not have killed me, I would have had continued my short squeeze play and I don’t even want to imagine where I would be right now.

            Axion is gentle in comparison. It is just a fear driven stock, completely disconnected from reality (of a successful 10 R&D project). And boy, since I got in the market, have I learned two things: nobody knows the future, no matter how much they boast about it and that fear and greed can switch place in a blink of an eye, you wonder for what insignificant reason. And with Axion I became a real investor, the one that takes the risk to actually help the company make it, and be prepared to sink with it, like if I was a partner founder. Somehow this was the meaning of the stock market, some people have ideas and tons of work power and others have the cash and are able to take the risk in the venture. I estimate that Axion has a much bigger chance of making it than me staring a business, and putting all my energy, creativity, work hours and cash into it, real world is harsh (especially in France, where business = evil in popular mythology). And if it does not work, I “only” lose half a million bucks, but I can prove new theorems in the meantime, do karting, parenting, learn electronics, you name it.

            • Nicu

              Nicu 7:01 am on January 6, 2015 813 days ago

              of a successful 10 R&D project) -> of a successful 10 years R&D project)

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 1:41 am on January 7, 2015 812 days ago

          Thanks for the explanation. Some questions.

          “I use exchanged mostly for cashing in a call spread (for which I own only the lower leg – I do not properly have an open spread, just a naked position),”

          I am not sure what the note in the parentheses means. Spread by definition has minimum of two legs. Let me try to recap what it seems to me that you are doing. You start a fresh position by opening bull call (vertical) debit spread. Let’s say you buy 25 strike call and sell 30 strike call of the same expiration. That will give you $5 of possible max theoretical gain (or do you count the max theoritical gain to be $5 spread minus the cost of the spread?).

          SPREAD
          A leg: -30 (cap)
          B leg: +25

          PROFIT TAKING
          It seems you use term “exchanged” when things are going your way (stock is going up). And instead of selling the whole spread setup you just move lower leg (B) of the spread (one you own) to the higher strike therefor decreasing the spread and pocketing the difference.

          DAMAGE CONTROL
          When things are not going your way (stock is going down) you “improve” your spread by replacing higher leg (A) of your spread with lower strike. This of course cost you some additional money.

          In total you are basically never out totally (until the expiration day since you don’t move expiration dates, just strikes) but instead move like caterpillar – alway half of the spread in and out

          Do I have it right?

          • Nicu

            Nicu 7:04 am on January 7, 2015 812 days ago

            not quite; I start with a plain naked call position:

            buy $25 C @ $6

            if the stock goes to $35, say, I sell the spread $25-$30, effectively:

            sell $25 C
            buy $30 C
            net credi $3

            now instead of having $25 C bought at $6, i have $30 C bought at net $3

            now the stock goes to $20, I buy back the same call spread

            sell $30 C
            buy $25 C
            net debit $1

            now I effectively have $25 C bought at net $4, instead of $6 in the beginning

            the more volatility, the better for me, but there is effectively a bias to the upside, otherwise you end up with worthless very expensive low strike calls, and one should stop before it is too late (that’s the place where I do not control stuff that well)

            • conshmillo

              conshmillo 3:32 am on January 11, 2015 808 days ago

              OK, got it. So these are actually no spreads at all. Just during the transaction as you are always pairing them.
              How far out are you buying when you are opening brand new position? 1 month, 3 months, half year, leaps?

            • Nicu

              Nicu 8:45 am on January 11, 2015 808 days ago

              most of the time leaps; I buy short term options only as complement to an existing long term strategy nowadays, as I have burnt myself uncountably many times with short term plays (as for example the puts position I opened to protect my paper gains in calls);

              my internal rule of thumb is that short terms is completely random and not extremely volatile (especially that when the stock drops, IV shoots up, so calls are not “proportionally” cheap), but long term starts to show non-random behaviour, as a bull market that will just keep going up forever, despite little “scares” / pauses on the way; once there is some kind of pattern, it cannot be 100% random

            • conshmillo

              conshmillo 5:55 am on January 12, 2015 807 days ago

              OK. Last thing. What rule do you have if things go wrong off the bat? You just hold the call? Buy more? Sell it with loss and buy lower strike when some predefined percentage is met? Ad complimentary shorter term call at lower strike? Never average at all?

            • Nicu

              Nicu 6:58 am on January 12, 2015 807 days ago

              what I did in the beginning was buy the spread to “improve” the calls (lower the strike) if the spread is cheap enough; unfortunately I do not have a magic formula for when one should just call it a losing bet; sometimes, if it’s the main play of the year, available cash will simply limit / pace the algorithm; when cash is no issue (rarely), in theory a limit should be set before starting the play, unfortunately much harder to do in practice, for me anyway

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:55 pm on January 7, 2015 812 days ago

      exchanged all $100 C for $1.80 credit (2x the above lot, which joined an older one at strike $100)

      • Nicu

        Nicu 7:36 pm on January 8, 2015 810 days ago

        oops, there was an error here: out $100 C, in $102 C

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:37 pm on January 8, 2015 810 days ago

      exchanged all $102 C to $104 C for $1.83 net credit

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:44 pm on January 9, 2015 810 days ago

      exchanged all $104 C to $108 C for $3.73 net credit

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:41 pm on January 13, 2015 806 days ago

        out of 1/6 of $108 C @ $4.70

      • Nicu

        Nicu 5:51 pm on January 13, 2015 805 days ago

        out of 1/3 of $108 C @ $3.4 – it seems I have caught the bottom to get out :(

      • Nicu

        Nicu 6:41 pm on January 13, 2015 805 days ago

        out of 1/4 of $108 C @ $2.85

      • Nicu

        Nicu 6:55 pm on January 13, 2015 805 days ago

        out the remaining 1/4 of $108 C @ $2.55 – still have upside exposure with $109 C, $112 C and Jan 23 $111 C

  • TRADE

    Nicu 5:36 pm on December 8, 2014 - 841 days ago

    33
    Nicu

    in more AXPW @ $1.05 (this is 2.1c before split) – this not only a joke beyond ridiculous, they almost have the cash in hand to buy all the stock out there

    PS: I could not post in the old long thread, it was not scrolling up enough … maybe it’s a sigh ;)

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:37 pm on December 8, 2014 841 days ago

      a sign! – edit, edit, edit

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:38 pm on December 8, 2014 841 days ago

      Axion’s website down since yesterday, at least :(

    • SB

      SB 6:00 pm on December 8, 2014 841 days ago

      • rastard

        rastard 12:13 am on December 9, 2014 841 days ago

        “This article is now exclusive for PRO subscribers.”

        Can you summarize?

        • Nicu

          Nicu 6:44 am on December 9, 2014 841 days ago

          If I remember correctly, legacy investors were very upset about the provision of B class warrants associated which each share in the last offering; they have a downside protection that you can do a cashless exercise if the price is below $3.25 starting 4 months after the offering; the lower the price, the more shares are offered for one such warrant.

          They also make a parallel with last year’s PIPE financing, in which they had a clear incentive to let the pps slide, as they were getting even more shares in return.

          If investors are selling / not buying because of those warrants, they are fulfilling the doom prophecy themselves. I have thought this silliness will pass with time, but it seems market can stay irrational with no end in sight …

        • SB

          SB 5:34 pm on December 9, 2014 840 days ago

          Sorry, it was publicly available when I linked to it. However, Nicu has summarized the B warrant dilution concern nicely.

          I’ve been fascinated by this small caps’ story, but haven’t been willing to play because of the uncertainty created by the two financing deals (the previous “PIPE” deal, and the current IPO with the B warrant surprise).

        • rastard

          rastard 2:02 am on January 8, 2015 811 days ago

          Thanks

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:01 pm on January 7, 2015 812 days ago

      in some more @ $1

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:34 pm on January 8, 2015 810 days ago

      in more @ $1.01

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:53 pm on January 9, 2015 810 days ago

      in more @ $1

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:35 pm on January 9, 2015 810 days ago

      in more @ 97c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:29 pm on January 13, 2015 806 days ago

      in more @ 87c – like a fantastically bad dream, never thought if could get so low

    • Nicu

      Nicu 4:06 pm on January 13, 2015 806 days ago

      in more @ 79c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:25 pm on January 15, 2015 803 days ago

      in more @ 85c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:37 pm on January 20, 2015 799 days ago

      in more @ 75c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:57 pm on January 20, 2015 799 days ago

      in more @ 70c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:08 pm on January 20, 2015 799 days ago

      more @ 68c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:52 pm on January 20, 2015 798 days ago

      more @ 65c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:01 pm on January 20, 2015 798 days ago

      This is not a trade, just reassessing the situation. This infinite slide may be caused by the fear of B warrants. The lower the price (average of the lowest 5 days in a 15 day period before cashless execution), the more shares you can get for free for a B warrant. As I have made a considerable effort in the offering, I have 60k B warrants, which would give me just shy of 400k shares at today’s close pps.

      Therefore everybody may be afraid that people like me would convert and then try to squeeze first trough the exit door (just like every major “investor” in Axion did during the last few years). It may be the case, but the lower the price goes, the more shares I get if I convert later. It’s a very bizarre situation, which somehow pushes people to self-destruction.

      Whatever happens with the B warrants, I might just stop buying now and conserve my cash, because whatever I do on the open market is a drop in the ocean.

      If it somehow it shoots up, I have plenty of sales so I could navigate to the Moon and beyond. If it goes down, nothing compares with the B nukes.

      Very distorted picture, and in any normal market, buying below book can hardly be an error. In Axion’s paradoxical universe, it may just be a large one.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 10:03 pm on January 20, 2015 798 days ago

        plenty of sails, not sales

    • Nicu

      Nicu 6:50 pm on January 21, 2015 797 days ago

      $3.88M market cap; what a fucking joke! book must be at least double! And somehow, they managed to make all that meaningless :(

      • SB

        SB 8:13 pm on January 21, 2015 797 days ago

        First the PIPE financing, now the B warrants – the uncertainty regarding dilution is killing it, from my perspective.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:38 pm on January 21, 2015 797 days ago

          That’s the way I see it too. But the B warrants are more the fault of defensive existing shareholders who did not participate in high enough numbers in the new offering. Should the offer been over-subscribed, there would have been no need for such a powerful sweetener. It was the first time we, retail investors, had the opportunity to participate on equal terms with the “bad boys”. And on a real market this time. But the confidence was already under the ground after several years of beatings, on top of falling health of the old CEO during the back out period.

          As for me, just because I walked the talk, I am now also in the camp of “bad boys”. But will keep walking the talk and protect myself with no or minimal damage to the other investors and our outfit.

          • SB

            SB 1:57 am on January 22, 2015 797 days ago

            Were the B warrants common/public knowledge, though? I was following the discussions about participating amongst the shareholders on Seeking Alpha, and I don’t recollect it being discussed before the offer was closed. I was toying with the idea of seeing if I could get in on the offer, but it wasn’t clear to me that there would be any significant difference between simply buying the shares afterwards.

            • Nicu

              Nicu 6:51 am on January 22, 2015 797 days ago

              I have found about this provision about a week after the deal. I was bitterly happy on the spot. I felt protected but uneasy. Now I know better why.

              As I was reflecting and discussing the thing with my wife, I realised that it’s exactly what Taleb warns about. There is no way to eliminate risk, at most you can shift it from some people to others (he prefers to talk about fragility). And no good things arise when there’s no skin in the game (B warrants effectively try to eliminate risk for new investors).

              Just like government policies who go to great lengths to “stabilise” everything that moves. It works for a while, with higher and higher sacrifices for this perceived safety, until it blows up. And even those who got rich / confortable while it worked, suffer dearly (because they cheat even in this situation, they do so a little bit less than everybody else).

              I just hate it when a good company with good tech gets eaten by the rotten part of our society. I still hope there is an honorable way out of this hole for Axion.

              In practice, at 50c, $1M would buy out all shares issued in the last offering (maybe even half of them are already out since then). If that would be done in a timely matter, before they start averaging prices for B warrants, and if the old guard does not sell off (is it worth selling for less than 10% of your investment? maybe, for a few), those who want to sell will be out of stock. And if the price starts to climb, a rare sight these days, the process could be reversed. But at this point the probability of such a scenario seems remote, as there are more or less two weeks left.

              Unfortunately, when confidence is gone, nothing endures. I was just reading about the hyper-inflation in 1923 in Germany. Waiters where climbing on tables every half an hour to announce the new prices. And in less than two years, they have lost a factor of about a trillion. This can happen when you let the printing press loose and nobody believes anything is worth or could be saved.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:33 pm on January 29, 2015 789 days ago

      in more @ 58c – not the large block I was talking about, a medium-small one to test the waters

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:37 pm on February 2, 2015 785 days ago

      in more @ 75c – still a smallish block

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:59 pm on February 5, 2015 783 days ago

      in more @ 56c – probably the last lot until there is some news of large price swings

      I may actually save some of my cash to invest in the private ePower (serial hybrid trucks using Axion’s battery), who seem to have done the bulk of the work (technical and legal) and are aiming for very aggressive growth with sales directly to customers, not to dinosaur OEM who take for ages to make a move

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:54 pm on February 18, 2015 769 days ago

      in more @ 32.5c – 10% the price I paid in the public offer less than 4 moths ago :(

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:57 pm on February 19, 2015 768 days ago

      in more @ 44c – have no idea why, all of a sudden it went up 54% at some point today, with absolutely huge volume, 454k out of a total of 7M shares, just shy of 6.5% of float – so I thought maybe there si a revival going on and I should add my 2c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:59 pm on February 24, 2015 763 days ago

      more @ 26.5c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:07 pm on March 6, 2015 754 days ago

      I have decided a few days ago that I will not report my AXPW trades until the dust settles a bit. There is a B-warrant war out there and as I am a visible puzzle piece in that, I do not want to give any hint to my opponents out there (it is only fair as I do not get any info about them either).

      Once this story is over one way or another, I will write a bit about how I’ve done and what I learned from it.

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 1:46 am on March 7, 2015 753 days ago

        Good to hear from you.

  • 8
    Nicu

    Nicu 2:43 pm on December 7, 2014 - 843 days ago

    Have just done reading Taleb’s book. I have learned lots of things and made me look at known things in a new light. Every investor and those who live in a volatile environment or wonder why present society (politics, business, finance, even science) seems to go down rather than up, there are some very interesting answers there.

    In short, among other things, it proposes a strategy to do well in a worlds that we do not understand. And believe me, the most important developments out there are chaotic (prey to the butterfly effect), so we do not understand / cannot predict. So how can one possibly do well without being able to predict? – Be antifragile (or convex to volatility). Natural things have this property and we would better use them instead of trying to control everything.

    Present politicians, corporate and even academics become antifragile at the expense of everybody else (they only take the upside like bonuses, stock options etc. but have no downside when they blow us up), which of course it’s not ethical. But before we can solve this dilemma, we must first see it, understand and explain it to others.

    Have fun!

     
    • henrystar

      Richard 8:52 pm on December 7, 2014 842 days ago

      I hope AAPL is not fragile.

    • Zee

      Zee 4:58 am on December 8, 2014 842 days ago

      I think the debate should be in how to introduce *antifragility* to Axion Power’s technology exposure and stock. Otherwise it seems to be up against strong headwinds hmm. And luck.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 6:37 am on December 8, 2014 842 days ago

        Axion is the right side of the barbell for me – the very speculative investment that would make it big should it work – albeit greatly overweighted. The barbell strategy is to put most of your assets in very secure stuff (like US bonds) and 5-10% in very speculative investments. Of course I do not satisfy this definition.

        Axion is trading below book value right now. But as a tech R&D company, it is the one in 50 or 100 that succeeds (it did !) and should make it up fo the other 49 that didn’t (if you were a venture fund). Unfortunately their tortuous history is still haunting them today wrt pps. Will see if the stock will catch up with reality.

        • Zee

          Zee 8:09 am on December 8, 2014 842 days ago

          I’ve been casually tracking it and reading up in it to get a sense of it and a feel for the stock. It seems underexposed and under debated which I think would clarify much… And coverage by the NYT, WSJ, Forbes, Fortune etc would do much. That said. And the necessary boost kick in especially if a major fund took an interest. Could they quickly adjust if business improved by 10-100X’s? Cuz I like it.

    • Zee

      Zee 12:59 pm on December 10, 2014 840 days ago

  • 2
    Nicu

    Nicu 8:34 am on November 15, 2014 - 865 days ago

    And so it goes, Apple has one more leg to its dominance, on top of UI, OS, hardware design, brand, integration: the only high end chips, which by the way, are cheap to produce for Apple, once the R&D is done.

    SOURCE:
    http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/11/15/apple-inc-a8x-ipad-chip-causing-big-problems-for-intel-qualcomm-samsung-and-nvidia

     
    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 9:22 pm on November 19, 2014 860 days ago

      The whole story of —
      the creation of ARM
      Apple developing Darwin and OS X
      purchase of PA Semi
      and the development of Apple Ax chips
      It all just points out how amazingly innovative, forward looking, and strategic Apple’s thinking is. Nobody can touch them, nor can they possibly for at least a decade. And that decade estimate assumes Apple doesn’t continue to innovate.

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