in Jan 30 $118 P @ 2c – not much $ value, but max pain was at $112 at close yesterday, who knows?
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AMZN should not come from amazon but from Amazing … 45c per share that is already $311 and it goes up 14% AH
Compare to AAPL, $3.06 EPS, shares at $110 and it goes up $6
People are Amazing …
Axion CEO died unexpectedly yesterday morning. This is quite a shock for me, as I had him over the phone Friday afternoon for about a half an hour and he seemed in good shape, and told me he has to get going as there is stuff to do towards the end of our conversation.
RIP David DiGiacinto
Lots of options in existence (2.285 M calls, 2.944 M puts), as they were available for about two stormy years. So I have computed Max Pain, the closing price that would minimise the total value of options (TOV) expiring this Friday (in existence as of yesterday’s close).
Max Pain is $100, TOV = $1.672B
Other points: $95 – TOV = $1.824B, $105 – TOV = $1.775B, $110 – TOV = 42.089B, $115 – TOV = $2.641
So, despite the fact that I would like it to be above $115 on Friday (and that it looks very green as of now), signs point to below $110. I will try to get out of calls as soon as possible and reinforce my puts position on the cheap.
not a real trade yet, just an open position for a small lot of
long Jan 23 $111 C @ $2.5
the reason is that I have extra cash so I take a bit more risks, instead of selling spreads I will decouple the two legs and do an diagonal spread: I will try to sell the corresponding Jan 17 $109 C for at least $4.5 next week – that would mean getting 100+% of the spread in cash and getting a week extension on the expiration
of course this is by taking extra risk that if the stock falls, I will be left holding the bag with those new worthless calls (the magic $4.5 moment could never come)
second reason: to my eye, it looks like max pain is somewhere $110-$111 today, but not many options in existence so it should trade more with the market; but $111- makes the $2.5 price reasonable … maybe I should watch / adjust it instead of telling tales
It’s getting harder to locate where I have posted all my AAPL options trades. So I will start a new thread.
exchanged all of my Jan. 17 $88.57 C to $100 C for $11 credit
improved all $112.14 C to $111 C for 32c (+ fees, in two trades)
in more AXPW @ $1.05 (this is 2.1c before split) – this not only a joke beyond ridiculous, they almost have the cash in hand to buy all the stock out there
PS: I could not post in the old long thread, it was not scrolling up enough … maybe it’s a sigh
Have just done reading Taleb’s book. I have learned lots of things and made me look at known things in a new light. Every investor and those who live in a volatile environment or wonder why present society (politics, business, finance, even science) seems to go down rather than up, there are some very interesting answers there.
In short, among other things, it proposes a strategy to do well in a worlds that we do not understand. And believe me, the most important developments out there are chaotic (prey to the butterfly effect), so we do not understand / cannot predict. So how can one possibly do well without being able to predict? – Be antifragile (or convex to volatility). Natural things have this property and we would better use them instead of trying to control everything.
Present politicians, corporate and even academics become antifragile at the expense of everybody else (they only take the upside like bonuses, stock options etc. but have no downside when they blow us up), which of course it’s not ethical. But before we can solve this dilemma, we must first see it, understand and explain it to others.
And so it goes, Apple has one more leg to its dominance, on top of UI, OS, hardware design, brand, integration: the only high end chips, which by the way, are cheap to produce for Apple, once the R&D is done.