Nicu 8:22 pm on November 14, 2014 - 1163 days ago


    in Jan 17 ’15 $102.86 P @ 70c (as many as I have $88.57 C that I prefer to sell in Jan for tax reasons)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:38 pm on November 21, 2014 1156 days ago

      improved all to $105 P for 21c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:56 pm on November 24, 2014 1153 days ago

        improved all $105 P to $107.14 P @ 22c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:24 pm on November 24, 2014 1153 days ago

      in 2 lots Jan 17 $100 P @ 30c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:41 pm on November 24, 2014 1153 days ago

        improved 99+% of $100 P to $102.86 P @ 14c

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:46 pm on November 24, 2014 1153 days ago


      • Nicu

        Nicu 7:08 pm on December 29, 2014 1118 days ago

        improved all $102.86 P to $105 P @ 10c

        I was quite tempted to cash some of the $60k or so paper profits from those puts a week or two ago, but then they were just a protection for even larger paper gains in calls that I can only cash in in January for tax reasons.

        Btw, I took advantage of the bottom to improve all my Jan 17 $112.86 C to $112.14 C @ 28c, which has also realised a paper loss.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 7:38 pm on January 8, 2015 1108 days ago

        improved all $015 P to $107.14 P @ 40c (joining the other lot that was already at $107.14)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:45 pm on January 9, 2015 1107 days ago

      improved all $107.14 P to $109 P @ 25c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 6:46 pm on January 13, 2015 1103 days ago

      partial trade (26%)
      improved $109 P to $111 P for 35c (it seems the chances for it to complete today are remote)

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:27 pm on January 15, 2015 1101 days ago

        exchanged all $111 P to $109.29 P for $1.37 net credit

        • Nicu

          Nicu 7:51 pm on January 15, 2015 1101 days ago

          exchanged them again to $107 P @ $1.3

          • Nicu

            Nicu 4:49 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

            out of all those $107 P @ $1.35

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:59 pm on January 15, 2015 1101 days ago

      exchanged all remaining $109 P to $107.14 P @ 95c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:51 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

        exchanged 3/4 of all $107.14 P to $106 P @ 85c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:52 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

        out of all remaining $107.14 P @ $1.6

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:34 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

      in some $106 P @ 30c (those expiring today, just as an exit strategy for $107 and $107.14 P if ti goes back dow; I find that I have a hard time selling those at good prices – greed + max pain are too strong)

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:01 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

        one more lot @ 30c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:02 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

        two more lots @ 25c

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:53 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

        including those buys and above exchange $107.14 P -> $106 P I conserve the total # of puts with so much less risk (more cash, lower strikes)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:01 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

      out of all $106 P for an average of about 19c – they went for 70c or so just a half an hour ago; wanting to test the max pain in real world conditions cost just about $10k – now I know better :(

      • SB

        SB 9:39 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

        Nicu – are there any timing/liquidity issues with holding your options so close to expiration? I’ve only played with long term calls, and either exited well before expiry if I had a profit or had them expire worthless.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 10:28 pm on January 16, 2015 1100 days ago

          no liquidity issues with AAPL, on the contrary, I have felt the trading platform freezing a little bit because there was so much activity / trades going on … and because those were in the money, I have sold them at market, therefore the worst case I get no time premium (there were less than 5 minutes left), but there are always some bots that will take them at about the strike to price difference

  • 10

    Nicu 6:40 pm on November 3, 2014 - 1174 days ago

    I think I want one :D


    • Zee

      Zee 12:28 pm on November 4, 2014 1173 days ago

    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:37 pm on November 5, 2014 1172 days ago

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 12:41 am on November 14, 2014 1164 days ago

      Unfortunately I need a $25,000 Tesla to get me into the market. :-)

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 10:40 pm on November 18, 2014 1159 days ago

      I was reading that many of the early electric cars (from the early 1900′s) are still in running condition. Apparently electrical components are very durable and age much better than internal combustion car components do. Makes me wonder about How well made the Teslas are (pretty well made I’m thinking.) could be a big factor in how well they hold their value as time passes.
      I was just doing some research on the Citroën DS 20 (Patrick Jane’s car in “The Mentalist”) after I noticed that when he parked the car it settled down about 6 inches on it’s suspension. What a cool car! Who knew the French had some great auto engineers. After reading about some of the features of the car—hydropneumatic suspension, steering driven headlights, etc. I feel I need to own one! $4,000 in 1972,they are now worth anywhere from $10,000 to $100,000 depending on the model. The beauty and innovation of the DS reminds me of other innovative cars, great and small—from Tuckers to Saturns (laugh if you want, but mine has over 200,000 miles it, still get 30 MPG, and looks like new.) And of course, the Teslas seem Like they will be a great leap forward. Perhaps I have to bite the bullet and pay big bucks now to enjoy and own a Tesla which will be a classic vehicle of the future?

    • Zee

      Zee 11:30 pm on November 18, 2014 1159 days ago

      • JPWatkins

        JPWatkins 9:10 pm on November 19, 2014 1158 days ago

        That Jag and I were born in the same year. Yesterday I came off the tennis court feeling old and rusty, but I have to admit I’ve kept in better shape than that Jag.

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 9:17 pm on November 19, 2014 1158 days ago

        I think it has flat tire on the front left side.

        • JPWatkins

          JPWatkins 3:05 am on November 20, 2014 1157 days ago

          That’s why they only got £78,000 for it!

  • 9

    Nicu 11:41 pm on November 1, 2014 - 1176 days ago

    • Zee

      Zee 3:01 am on November 2, 2014 1175 days ago

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 5:12 am on November 2, 2014 1175 days ago

        F1 here I come :-) . Good job. Nice effect top left.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:47 am on November 2, 2014 1175 days ago

          Thanks. I have done 2s better (see another shaky video in my channel), I feel I have more control but the stopwatch proves me wrong (or maybe it is more control because I go slower :( ). After analysing the video, I think I change gears too soon (around 11000 rpm, instead of 12500-13000 rpm where it gets its full 40 hp).

          Anyway, by any means, I am still a beginner who made the jump from rental machines (four stroke 9-12 hp, no gears, hard tires) to this beast (two stroke 125 cc, 6 gears, highest category of competition). You actually lose a lot of time and control changing gears all the time (when you have step off the gas) and many seasoned drivers at the track prefer no gears or some intermediary machines with 2 gears only (with steering wheel paddles, one for each gear).

          My first real project on the kart is to transform it to paddle shifting (using aero models parts) and then maybe electric starter so we stop pushing it all the time, especially after spins on the track when you have nobody nearby to get help from, which are inevitable in the learning process.

          The second big project is to add 20 or 40 electric hp, by making it an electric hybrid.

          The third project is to get rid entirely of the gas engine and put a 130 hp electric motor on it (, for example) and try to get below 2s in 0-60 mph :D

          As you see, I have plans to have fun for at least 5 years with my dragonfly. In the meantime, I learn to do some mechanics, how to drive the beast and getting lots of adrenaline and dopamine out of it !

          • Zee

            Zee 11:33 am on November 2, 2014 1175 days ago

            I’m glad you’re having fun racing. It’s better for you than chess boxing. The first time you introduced us to this form of racing, I checked out afterwards what it was about around the world because the web really opens it up… Then I got the idea that it and F1 etc would be well served if drones were used for broadcasting the races. Who knows. You may even move up in car classes. The racing bug can really infect you. And don’t be shy of beating the snot out of the engine when you see the rpm hitting the red. That’s good. More gear less brake.

            • Zee

              Zee 11:58 am on November 2, 2014 1175 days ago

              PS. Thank you for AXPW. I have been playing w that in my head. I think maybe they need help w logistics. Then that thing will take off no.

            • Nicu

              Nicu 2:13 pm on November 2, 2014 1175 days ago

              No intention to compete, for many reasons (too old, not good enough a driver, too expensive, more dangerous, too much time etc.).

              I think the sensations you get in a shifter kart are hard to find anywhere below F1. Of course, other types of motor sports like Rally of bikes have other thrills (+ dangers), but the sheer lateral Gs in cornering and acceleration / braking are not as hard.

              That is because we have the softest tires out there (much softer than F1) and the only way to get better grip is a lot of aerodynamic downforce, thus F1 or equivalent. Better drivers than me with competition tires get 3+G in corners, F1 is about 3.5G :

              “A modern Formula One car is capable of developing 3.5 g lateral cornering force (three and a half times its own weight) thanks to aerodynamic downforce. That means that, theoretically, at high speeds they could drive upside down.”

              I have read a quote from Schumacher some time ago (not able to find it now) that 20 minutes of karting racing (many F1 pilots participating a few years ago in some event) were almost as hard on them as the entire F1 race in Singapore.

              Of course, I do not push it nowhere nearly as hard as them. But without looking at the engine time (the only timer available while driving), I usually kick myself out of the track after about 10 minutes because I start making errors, both cerebral and muscular ;)

            • Zee

              Zee 7:25 am on November 3, 2014 1174 days ago

              Your approach is the best for most things: the love of it and personal accomplishment. And thanx for the F1 link. Lewis Hamilton from Team Mercedes has won 10 of 17 races this year. And Mercedes 14 of 17. I didn’t realize how often they use technology to outsmart the rules and then the rules are immediately changed. You might get a kick out of this wiki link. There’s a chapter re the 1973 national soap box derby champ, a 14 year old losing his title because two days after the competition his car was x-rayed and they found an electromagnet in the nose of his car that was activated by pressing on the headrest with the helmet.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:55 am on November 2, 2014 1175 days ago

          BTW, I do not think I have shared this, I have changed my mind wrt the 3D printer model, I have actually ordered this yesterday

          as there were a handful left for delivery in December this year.

          Not only on paper is much nicer than the Pirate3D (more precise, faster, larger print area, more materials etc.), but it is thought as a 3-axis platform and they plan to produce exchangeable heads to transform it into a circuit board etching machine (which I actually do with chemicals and an UV machine I have built from an old flatbed scanner) or even a 3D milling machine.

          They have actually a second head coming next spring, to print simultaneously with two materials (not only different colours, but actually different temperatures), so one can be dissolvable and used only as support material or simply for different mechanic properties.

          • Nicu

            Nicu 2:34 pm on December 7, 2014 1140 days ago

            printer shipped, I should have it next week, I’ll keep u up to date ;)


    Nicu 7:43 pm on October 28, 2014 - 1180 days ago


    in AXPWW in two lots (yesterday and today) at an average of 63c (5 year AXPW $3.25 warrants)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:28 pm on October 29, 2014 1179 days ago

      one more lot @ 54c (while on the track today ;) )

    • SB

      SB 10:15 pm on October 30, 2014 1178 days ago

      A lot of angst on the axion power concentrator regarding the B warrants and some clause that allows for further potential dilution if the stock price stays low .. or so I gather. Meanwhile the price of the common shares continues downward ….

      • Nicu

        Nicu 10:30 pm on October 30, 2014 1178 days ago

        First, I have quit reading the concentrators, too much chicken $#!† there …

        Yep, I was not aware of the modification but I had a call from Nick Hall yesterday (while driving on the highway, coming back from the track) and he explained a bit the matter. Then I took a look this morning and starting in four months, the B warrants protect from downside, in the sense that for 15 months, there is no way to lose money other than bankruptcy. I will actually gain about 20% of my investment in the worse case.

        I do not know if this means I am on the dark side right now, but when my company needed help (cash), despite all the negativity around, I have stepped up and did what I felt I should ;)

        • Nicu

          Nicu 10:32 pm on October 30, 2014 1178 days ago

          worse -> worst

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:31 pm on October 30, 2014 1178 days ago

      + 1.18 lots @ 48c (day order open for 2 lots, did not fill)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 4:37 pm on November 4, 2014 1173 days ago

      +1.32 lots yesterday @ 56c (.32 are for a friend)

      set up another GTC order for 2 lots @ 50c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:22 pm on November 11, 2014 1166 days ago

      +1 lot @ 64.74c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:16 pm on November 11, 2014 1166 days ago

      +2 lots slightly below 65c (traded in many smaller blocks, limit 65c)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:29 pm on November 13, 2014 1164 days ago

      +1.53 lots @ 65c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 6:23 pm on November 14, 2014 1163 days ago

      +1.58 lots @ 65c (remaining .42 lots up to 2 still open for the day)

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:20 pm on November 14, 2014 1163 days ago

        filled; added 0.8 lots in stock too

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:58 pm on November 21, 2014 1156 days ago

      +1 lot @ 60c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:13 pm on November 24, 2014 1153 days ago

      +1 lot @ 55c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:42 pm on December 8, 2014 1139 days ago

      +0.62 lots @ 40c (did not fill completely)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:13 pm on January 9, 2015 1107 days ago

      +0.2 lots @ 45c
      forgot to report (22 Dec.)
      +0.22lots @ 60c

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:44 pm on February 23, 2015 1062 days ago

      +5 lots @ 9c (IIRC what a lot was)

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 11:11 pm on February 23, 2015 1062 days ago

        That was mega volume today. Doesn’t look pretty. Behaving way too crazy.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:00 am on February 24, 2015 1061 days ago

          today was the first day when B warrants could be executed in cashless fashion, for about 11 free shares for each warrant; however, 3-4 days are needed for the shares to actually get into your account, so today (as last Friday and Thursday) there was a lot of shorting and unloading to depress the price and make room for new free shares in shark’s accounts

          what amazes me on top of volume, about 8x the volume after the October offering (by far the largest to date), is how well the price resisted; somebody is accumulating relentlessly

          as for my B warrants, I will execute them in several batches; but to compute the ratio, you take the lowest 5 VWAvg days out of the last 15 and use this in a formula which resembles 1 / pps (the lower the price, the more shares you get for free for each warrant); so as long as there is no danger of the average going up (the 5 lowest days are not 2-3 weeks before), I will wait

          I am waiting for the exact rule concerning the $3.25 price point where you start using the warrants in the natural way, does it have to be the day you ask for free shares, or the average of the 5, or what; depending on that, I may convert some just to be sure the price does not jump for good news and I am left holding the bag

          sharky times!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:52 am on February 24, 2015 1061 days ago

      + about 3 lots @ 7c (order for 6 lots not filled)

  • 8

    Nicu 8:21 am on October 17, 2014 - 1191 days ago

    Now I understand better why I heard Chinese during the few minutes the live stream worked for me.


    • henrystar

      Richard 9:20 am on October 17, 2014 1191 days ago

      Thanks, VERY educational indeed!

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 6:57 pm on October 17, 2014 1191 days ago

      What a hogwash. And bad writing too. “it’s for the billions of people with tens of billions of dollars” – really?

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 3:27 am on October 20, 2014 1188 days ago

      Well the reasoning makes sense if the aWatch costs “tens of dollars.” ;-) [do the division]
      The reasoning is poor. Although it’s true many people needed to draw on their palms etc. 30 years ago when I was a student in asia, this just isn’t such an issue any more :
      1.) Manderin is ubiquitous now [internet, TV, etc.]
      2.) paper works well and is very cheap
      3.) [the Register is so bad! Who reads it for insight anymore? (No offense Nicu.)]
      The reasoning seems like the work of a “Chinese expert” of questionable expertise and decades out of date. Don’t get me wrong, Chinese do like gold and many will find the aWatch enticing. But the appeal is all about the newest technology from Apple and nothing else.
      [Then there's the whole overlooked fact that the aWatch will not be released for another 4-6 months and nobody yet knows exactly what all it will do . . . Reminds me of all the "expert opinion" immediately after after the iPhone was unveiled.]
      BTW call me crazy, but based just on what we actually know for sure, I think just about anyone would prefer an apple watch over a FitBit and a Pebble. Am I wrong?

  • 3

    Nicu 3:02 pm on October 13, 2014 - 1195 days ago

    • Zee

      Zee 7:25 pm on October 13, 2014 1195 days ago

      Is there an explanation if it’s a hoax? Under the circumstances what would produce the same results?

    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 6:28 am on October 14, 2014 1194 days ago

      It’s all about who the observers are and their competence an impartiality. There are all kinds of ways it could be a hoax, the simplest being unreliable or perversely incentivized observers.
      If it isn’t a hoax, then great — and watch the price of nickel go up! I won’t hold my breath.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:13 pm on October 15, 2014 1193 days ago
      they do not say what the breakthrough is, nor how the tech will work

  • 4

    Nicu 8:23 am on September 21, 2014 - 1217 days ago

    Of course I’m biased for next week (read crazy bullish), I have 315 ITM calls for Jan 15 and 140 $107 calls expiring next week. But again, after a long time, I have the same feeling again: they are all wrong and there are going to be fireworks!

    Who is wrong? Well, analysts, the press, most investors. I haven’t seen estimates above the range 10-11M and most are even below last year. And I agree that simply long lines cannot tell the whole story, as for example some think last year’s good numbers are due to “channel fill”, i.e. 5c on the shelves everywhere and nobody to buy them (huge production and yields on the plastic one). I’ll try to “prove” that even if that’s true, that 9M mark will be trounced.

    A quick remainder on the last year’s situation. 5s was production constrained, out of stock. 5c cheaper model that Apple thought will sell in large quantities, was only exceptionally out of stock. So because demand was not aligned with supply, one could think the first week-end should have been a huge disappointment. Not so, sales jumped to 9M from 5M the previous year. I will assume the bearish reason for that, 3M channel fill with 5c, otherwise my numbers that I will detail below would be definitely crazy.

    During the last year, 5s + 5c went to be 40+% of the market
    iPhone 5s + 5c usage during the first year.
    Assuming 10% of older iPhones went out of use, this means the total number of iPhones in use is about 60% larger in Sep ’14 than Sep ’13 (because if you have a quantity A and add B so that B represents 50% of the total A + B, than B = A, meaning a 100% increase of the total).

    Now, let’s remember how the usage of new iPhones progressed after launch one year ago
    iPhone 5s + 5c usage during the first two weeks.
    After the first week-end, combined percentage use was around 1.85%.

    What about now?
    iPhone 6 usage during the first two days.
    After two days, combined usage is around 3.75% or about double the corresponding stat last year. Assume this number will not grow by the end of the week-end (as it did not last year). Assume only 6M (9M announced, 3M in channel) were in users’ hands last year and there are none in the channel this year (otherwise sales should be even higher).

    Considering also that there are about 60% more iPhones in use this year, it gives an estimate of 19.2M, which I agree, looks impossible (at each step I have built a bearish assumption). Let me subtract 30% for other errors (maybe this year people simply use more their new toys or the sampling method changed, rounding method for days / from hours graph etc.).

    This still gives a lower bound of about 13.5M iPhones sold during the week-end, which is way outside any prediction out there! This would represent 50% growth compared to last year. Such growth rates seem just a distant memory and will light a fire under analysts’ view for the next year, price targets and the press.

    Very interesting times!

    Please show me where I’m wrong :)

    If you are interested about the data source and hour by hour evolution, it is here,report_unit:hour,to_date:0

    • Zee

      Zee 9:08 pm on September 21, 2014 1217 days ago

    • Zee

      Zee 5:24 am on September 22, 2014 1216 days ago



    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:47 pm on September 22, 2014 1216 days ago

      Wrong, 10M. Just as the “consensus” expected :(

      • Zee

        Zee 11:17 am on September 23, 2014 1215 days ago

        Thank you though. On another note. I haven’t taken time to toy and play with this analytics tool. Until now I was envying those who had access to IBM’s analytics. Apparently the best in the business. I’m assuming re mixpanel that the right searches will give the best insights and answers. Question is what can we ask to factor hmm. Sometimes the best road is rather tangential no. Thank you again.

  • 20

    Nicu 1:55 pm on September 12, 2014 - 1226 days ago

    So much mouth foam during the last couple of years about how Apple will roll on the floor and die when (soon) the mighty carriers get tired of forfeiting their profits to Apple. In real life it turns out that in a saturated market (the US), the best way to get customers from your competition is to be very aggresive with offers for the best phone out there. With the most poweful punch directly in Samsung’s soft spot, I see nothing that stops Apple from selling 200M iPhone 6 and 250M iPhone 6S (next year’s model).

    End of 2015 – first half of 2016 target: $150. Be aware, we will have at least another 20-40% dip, but there is no way to know when and from what level :)



    Nicu 5:57 pm on September 9, 2014 - 1229 days ago


    in Sep. 12 $97 P @ 15c (if the iWatch is ugly)

    cashed in two call spreads, I will detail later

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:10 pm on September 9, 2014 1229 days ago

      out of 25% of those @ $1.52

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:39 pm on September 10, 2014 1228 days ago

      sold the remaining ones @ 20c (they went for over 60c today – kept them as insurance, but I feel there no more real danger of a crash until Friday)

  • Nicu 5:03 pm on September 9, 2014 - 1229 days ago


    Video drops, goes low res, even an “Access denied” at

    Will they ever get it how to make those pipes work?

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