I have agonised quite a lot about the iPhone numbers and just a bit less about the iPad. I think that given that they succeeded in balancing iPhone demand and supply and that China Mobile was coming, they should have stuffed the channel with about 2.5M additional iPhones. Also, we had a huge new carrier in the quarter in Japan, one of the best markets for the iPhone. Stats in September were showing huge pent-up demand for the iPhone in the US, Samsung got killed all around the world, and production / distribution seems to have been very solid, at least given the 9M number for the first week-end.
iPad air seemed to be very well received and despite Apple boasting they have plenty of them, they were still in short supply just after launch. This should at least sustain ASP and a minimum growth y/y.
All in all, I may be again the most optimistic in several categories at once, and allowed myself to go almost $3B outside the box fixed by Apple for revenue and more than 1% outside the GM box. So please, take my numbers with a barrel of salt.