Jesus Cristo o Salvador, now AAPL is pinned to $250.
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Facetime does not work with iChat. iChat is bundled with every Mac.
An easy, almost no-cost way to turbo charge the Halo effect would be to make iChat and Facetime compatible with each other. Apple can’t build enough iPhones to meet demand, but they can keep up with Macs.
Or is that so obvious that Apple has planned it already, and is working out what steps to take along the way to maximise auxiliary sales. E.g. an iPod Touch with Facetime, then an iPad with camera and Facetime, and THEN push it out to Macs? Remember, this company sat on the iPad UI for 5 years (as Jobs admitted) because it realised it could sell a bunch of phones with it first. Talk about the patience of a supreme general.
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rastard
At WWDC, Steve indicated that Apple intends to make Facetime an open standard — interoperable with non-iPhone, non-Apple systems. Unless Apple reneges and keeps it as a proprietary format, it seems unlikely to produce much of a halo.
Until Facetime (or another) is viable over 3G/4G and not just wifi, I don’t see widespread video chat adoption happening (and even then, maybe not). There are already plenty of other free videoconferencing solutions on Mac and Windows that work well and are plenty simple to use. How many people do you know that actually use them?
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nolavabo
Skype is probably the industry leader, because it’s just one click away from a skype voice call, something people do already.
Facetime is as easy to use as an iPod. This alone will drive adoption.
How many phones could play mp3s before the iPhone? How many mp3 players existed before the iPod? And how many NON-GEEKS bothered with mp3s versus a discman? The trick was always getting the damned music in and out easily, a problem Apple solved.
I expect Facetime to be huge. And I also am sure that AT&T flat out refused to allow Facetime over 3G. Their network is choking to death already.
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rastard
Here’s the difference. Prior to iPods, people were already listening to music, and loads of people already were accustomed to having portable music players (ex: Sony Walkman). Prior to the iPod triggering widespread adoption, early adopters were already singing the praises of portable MP3 players. The iPod simply made them more usable/accessible to the masses.
That hasn’t been the case with video calling/video chat — even early adopters aren’t doing it regularly. It’s not a technology/usability issue for them — they just don’t seem drawn to it as an activity. Most of my closest friends all have and use Skype for calling. After using it’s video calling feature a total of about 2 times, the novelty wore off, and we pretty much never use it anymore. In theory, video calling has always seemed like a great, futuristic idea/goal, but in practice, people don’t seem to care enough about seeing the person on the other end to offset the behavior changes it requires from them (because the other person can see what they’re doing as well).
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nolavabo
I agree with your points above. I owned 5 phones before my first iPod that were capable of playing mp3s. I loaded music on all 5 once, and never bothered again because it was such a royal pain. The iPod made it *easy* to get your music on and off.
For me, the benefit of Facetime on the iPhone is that the same ease of use will occur. With Skype (and iChat) video calls, you need to set a time and date with your friends. This is such a pain that I never use it except for my family.
However, the iPhone will do Facetime right in the phone, right into another phone. So as long as the other guy is in a wifi hotspot when you try to make the video call, it will pop up on his phone as if it were a voice call. All he has to do is hit accept, and the video call starts. People are incredibly lazy; the fact that most people will not bother waiting around for 5 minutes for a video call explains why it’s never really caught on. When it’s exactly the same work to accept a voice call or a video call, I believe that it will take off.
This is a question of critical mass. Once enough people have moved up to the iPhone 4, it will be cool enough to drive sales on its own. IMHO of course.
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rastard
“So as long as the other guy is in a wifi hotspot when you try to make the video call”
That’s a big “if”, and was exactly my point:
“Until Facetime (or another) is viable over 3G/4G and not just wifi, I don‚Äôt see widespread video chat adoption happening (and even then, maybe not).”
Until you can catch anyone (not just iPhone4 users), anywhere (not just while connected to a wifi hotspot), and at anytime (not just when you’ve prearranged for them to be somewhere), I just don’t see it taking off…
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Zee
rastard london is supposed to be the wifi capital of the world if you want to look online for tips into behavior re trends.
i live in an area surrounded by 3 universities that are all within 10 minutes of each other. i just take the dog and go for a couple of coffees here and there and ask a lot of young people lots of questions. they’re never reserved in moving onto the next thing. inform them of something and they’ll probably have it the next time you see them. i have never seen life like this before. alone or in groups they’re bee hiving on a phone or computer. Video is the next new thing to be transformed. imho just give it a year or so.
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rastard
Funny you should mention London, as I was just there last month. Yes, there are a bazillion wifi access points, but they all seem to be protected, private, or need an iPass-like account to access them. They’re also all on different SSIDs, so as one moves around town, you need to connect to each manually, making it so that you can’t automatically answer a Facetime call coming in over wifi.
I was in Miami Beach, Florida earlier this year, which now has free city-wide wifi that actually has pretty decent coverage. Facetime could be great under those settings, as everyone can have almost as complete coverage on wifi there as they would over Edge or 3G. But to become ubiquitous, people on both ends of the conversation would need to reside in such an area, and that just isn’t the case for most…
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Zee
@rastard
zone one is the largest wifi area in canada. it’s 6 sq kilometers. 450 km of fiber optic cable facilitates the internet service as of aug 1st 2008. i thought it was toronto/ontario hydro’s baby, but its cogeco’s who is rogers’ competitor. coverage and purpose was to envelope an area emanating around bay street, the financial district. i was working in the area just around the corner where hollinger’s lord black of crossharbour the media magnate had his hq. he’s in the news today. is he ever. nolavabo’s concept, i don’t think will occur singularly. to me it would be synergistic. i think video usage is rapidly trickling down as a movement. tangentially related was the recent herd effect when a brilliant hacker named Tester 13 created firmware making the panasonic gh1 a very formidable production camera able to take any lens with a bit rate and non rolling shutter superior to canon’s 5D/7D. lionsgate film’s direction is supporting my notion for how this video lifestyle and consciousness will just click and we’ll wake up and viola’. i’m telling you these kids just take to this stuff like ducks to water. problem is that to see anyone with the skill set and talent able to marry these things is almost rare and like being among the early days of guttenberg. what’s fueling this movement apart from the digital realm is that i think we are also in an era of mass narcissism. content and ethics are poor and misguided. historically what guided the narrative’s values were individual freedoms and human rights. now we’ve just got too much of a celebration of rotten spectacle. people seem more interested in watching britney spears walk out of the washroom of a gas station bare foot. lol. when the new iphone hits i will sort of make an intuitive survey of its affect. the macluhan centre if its still alive might be worth dropping in on. ironically it’s in the same university house as the hq for medieval studies. lol.
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nolavabo
I work from home, and thus have wifi on constantly. My wife works in an office, with 24/7 wifi. Everybody I know who is either at home with their kids, or working whether at home or in an office, has 24/7 wifi. Sure, it won’t work when we go to a restaurant at night, or stuck in traffic, or sitting outside for a coffee. You don’t use Skype video calls then either. But for at least half of the day, at least half the average adults who would buy an iPhone would be inside a wifi zone.
I would never bother trying to set up a Skype video chat for a 2 minute call with my friends or my wife; it’s simply too bothersome. It wouldn’t even occur to me. Imagine how it goes. While phoning your wife/friend, it occurs to you that you could do a video call. So, as it rings, you start setting up your own computer. Here’s the conversation. Wanna video chat? Why? Oh, for fun. My computer’s not on, can’t you just tell me what you have to say? I just thought it’d be fun/nice to see you while talking, so please go turn it on. [wait ... wait ... wait] Okay, computer’s in other room. What’s your account name again? [goes away ... wait ... wait] Can’t see you. Hold on, you’re using iChat and not Skype? Oh, lemme quit and start over. [wait ... wait ... wait] Geez, forget it. Just say what you wanna say, I gotta go.
But if we both had iPhone 4s, after I make the phone call, it’s one extra screentouch to start Facetime. Other person’s iPhone goes “bleep” and a dialog comes up asking if they want to start Facetime. Why wouldn’t I do it? Why wouldn’t they accept it, unless they had a mudpack on their face?
My boy is now 2 years old, and we do weekly Skype video calls with family, as we all live in different countries. Even those are a pain, and they are scheduled and regular. One party is always left logged on and waiting for the other. Can’t walk too far away from the computer, you might not hear it beeping. And even if you have a laptop, if you want to show them your new sofa it requires all kinds of juggling and walking around holding a laptop backwards. Compare this to Facetime, where you just keep it in your pocket as always, go to any part of the house, and easily swap between front and back cameras to talk or show off your new sofa. When one side is late (always!) you don’t feel like you’re actually waiting any more than you would for a regular phone call. The big disadvantage here is the small phone versus a nice big screen on a computer, but to be fair, it’s a very small picture blown up into big jaggy squares.
This is taking a baseline number of zero, and pushing it a little bit above zero. That’s already a massive increase.
The real zoom in adoption will be when it supports 3G. Anywhere to anywhere, EASY video calling FOR FREE will be compelling. But AT&T is choking on web use alone. Skype just went 3G and multitasking aware, and is going to flood AT&T even more. There is no way that AT&T would allow Facetime over 3G, at least not without charging more for it.
Anyway, this is all conjecture. Let’s just wait and see.
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Yet another analyst fudding AAPL down, one day before earnings. The timing is astounding, and the content is idiotic. Of course it’s Barrons who repeats it.
Even if Apple misses margin (which is a real possibility) they’d need to miss it by 10-15 percentage point to actually miss EPS. The SEC is still asleep and/or looking at porn it seems.
There is something I’ve been watching closely the last few weeks. If a reversal occurs at an exact hour, (e.g. 10am, 11am, noon) then it always turned out to be a V shape reversal and it goes in a straight line after that.
Gee, what a coincidence that after a morning of fudding the stock down under $240, it bottomed and reversed at 11am exactly. Let’s wait and see if I’m justifiably angry at manipulators, or just being paranoid.
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conshmillo
AAPL broke 247.00 support and bottom fell off. Probably Motorola/Nokia news added to over reaction. As you said let’s see what happens at 11.00 and we’ll know what’s going on. btw. AAPL just bucked stochastic on intraday 15 minutes chart. Turned back up at 52%. Could be she is done falling for today.
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nolavabo
I picked up more calls at 11.15am.
Today I have not seen a single “antennagate” story that bashes Apple. Instead I am seeing the opposite; a flood of stories calling antennagate an over-reaction, and that AAPL is now a buying opportunity.
Seems the big players have loaded up enough yesterday and are ready to pump it up now.
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nolavabo
I guess they wanted a few more cheap shares. One more big push down at the open, and then they finally stopped pulling the strings. After that big first run-up, which was like letting go of a rubber band, the way it’s trading right now feels a lot more natural.
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Nicu
I love that rubber band, nolav
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nolavabo
I’m sure you do, Nicu.
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By my calculations, this simplistic trade has worked for the last 22 out of 25 weeks. And of the failing 3 weeks, 2 were losses of less than $3.
Friday was opex and AAPL refused to be pinned to a round number. This is very bullish, showing the stock cannot be contained by the MMs. For this reason, I entered July $270 calls around 2 p.m. As per the above statement, this trade is working.
AAPL historically has seen round number resistance/support. HOW she breaks $280 will give us more clues about where she is going.
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nolavabo
OUT all calls. +$1 and +68c. Looks like she wants to fill the gap. I’ll reload AAPL then. Next date of significance is June 24, when retail iPhone sales start worldwide. As sales numbers come in, AAPL should pop.
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conshmillo
@nolavabo
I will wait with any shorting of AAPL until RIMM’s earnings. I believe AAPL could stay where it is or even go higher between today and 24th. If RIMM’s earnings will cause AAPL rally, I will most probably short into that rally for short term swing.
China’s yuan’s news created nice carrot to extend the market gains, but in 3 months/daily time frame we are overbought. Both DIA and AAPL. In 2 years/weekly market is showing still some strength (just crossed bullish on stoch) but I think, if it doesn’t go higher (turns back on 40% or such) we’ll have to really watch the 9750 levels. DJIA’s 9800ish was hit multiple times in past 5 months and if that support cracks there will be a pretty good chance of breakdown down 9000 levels.
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conshmillo 3:35 pm on August 13, 2010 645 days ago Reply
I just posted in my “DIA PUT” thread:
This weekly options pinning was killing me. Without any conspiracy theories it would be hard not to call it stock manipulation if you can land 228 billion behemoth on a dime at round numbers of 10 on every Friday.
mikeinmontreal 5:17 pm on August 13, 2010 645 days ago Reply
Well…at least in 10 years (or sooner), AAPL will have enough in cash alone to be worth 250/share…
nolavabo 4:05 pm on August 20, 2010 638 days ago Reply
$250 pin on the monthly opex. Put AAPL on a weekly chart, and see where each week ends. She is being systematically pinned to either $250 or $260 for weeks now.
I’ve been thinking about this for a while. Those who’ve been around for a few years will know I used to write a lot of covered calls. I’ll post my theory about what the funds are doing when I have a bit of time, probably next week.
mikeinmontreal 5:05 pm on August 20, 2010 638 days ago Reply
Yup…surprise, surprise….we need an iPod event quick….and earnings can’t come soon enough…
caruso2323 5:24 pm on August 20, 2010 638 days ago Reply
Well next week the “pinning” will be gone ! … and AAPL will stand on its own feet ! … It may either drop to 244 or rise to 257 ! … Make your bets ! … This is turning out more like casino than fundamentals !…
Fundamentals may not stand out unless we are told what the numbers are … Mainly for the iP4′s… Not even, an iPod event will move AAPL ! … Just the iP4′s ! … Forget about rumors of an iP4 mod for VZ, or an iTV ! … Just think iP$ ! …
I would have wished to think that Steve Jobs wants a vendetta against those Hedge Funds, or VZ playing paid to media games !… But I guess that is not his style… Focusing on delivering more than caring for shareholders … That is fair enough for me ! … But what is so wrong doing BOTH ? … !
conshmillo 5:36 pm on August 20, 2010 638 days ago Reply
@caruso2323
week to week movements never reflect much of the fundamentals. Fundamentals are great for really long, long term where quality determines whether company can thrive during the bad times. Week to week action is determined by daily and intraday TA, most immediate economical reports, and news surprises. Currently there is more possibility of downturn in overall market. Unfortunately Apple will be dragged down with the market if market will indeed go lower. That will be opportunity for swing traders, as Apple will be among the first ones bouncing right back after that.
nolavabo 9:54 am on August 23, 2010 635 days ago Reply
Way too busy to write the full version. This is the condensed version.
Imagine you are a large fund, with millions of shares. You bought under $150 and are seeking to book some profit. You see that the market is wickedly volatile, and are not sure if it’s going up or down. You want to sell for $250 minimum, and you have lots and lots of shares. What to do? Start writing covered calls.
Now that we have both weekly and monthly options, you write some for the monthly at say $260 strike ($8 right now), and each Monday you write more at approximately where the price is right then. For today, that would be writing the $250 strike ($4 right now). You write as many calls as you own shares (or that the market will soak up, whichever comes first). You make money on the calls as you are selling time premium, especially for OTM calls. If you get called out on the weekly, great. Not only do you get the price you want ($250) but you get to keep the price of the calls, an extra $4. If you don’t get called out, you keep the price of the calls anyway and start all over again next week.
Now, this is where the pinning comes in. Come Thursday or Friday, you re-examine the PPS. If it’s under $250, you leave it alone as the calls will expire and you keep the money. If it’s over $250, you start selling. Remember, you were planning to sell for anything over $250 anyway, so this is good. You sell just enough to drive the PPS down back under $250, forcing all the calls to expire worthless. You cannot lose doing this IF your original plan is to sell.
Given how many funds publicly declared that they were either lightening up all shares, or tech shares in particular, this is how I imagine it would be done. The institutional ownership stats back up their talk (for once).
conshmillo 3:52 pm on August 23, 2010 635 days ago Reply
Good part is individual investor can hitch a ride with them by shorting calls at the beginning of the week if markets are are short term overbought, and shorting puts when markets are short term oversold.
nolavabo 6:20 pm on August 23, 2010 635 days ago Reply
Exactly. The behaviour has become obvious so we may as well try to take advantage of it.
Also, I find that posting my thoughts helps to crystallise them. I know when I *know* something as I can just type away and hit post. Whereas if I’m still hammering it out in my head, I am always erasing text and rephrasing it.
Zee 9:37 pm on August 23, 2010 635 days ago Reply
Fwiw. Guys I don’t know if this idea will help. Perhaps it would make a good application if developed for trading since much of TA is based on pattern recognition.
Background : Unfortunately I’ve lost track of this website and unable to dredge it up. Nevertheless. There’s a website that once you’re there all you have to do is type in a stock’s symbol and it provides the very accurate up to date daily list of all the institutions that are holding, buying, and selling any particular stock in very fine detail.
What if the data was retranslated into a visual like an api, and then superimposed over the daily candle stick chart with obvious volume comparisons? If hitching a ride is the m.o. wouldn’t this help?
I found this info very helpful because the time delay between the info and the news hitting the street meant the ride was beginning or over. Oh, and add to it the changes in the daily put call ratios. Just one more accessible metric. No?
conshmillo 12:45 am on August 24, 2010 635 days ago Reply
@zee
You can get recap at http://moneycentral.msn.com under Ownership.
But to chart the data you need some historical feed, either daily or at least monthly. I think most of them are actually updated only quarterly basis. If I can get historical feed, charting institutional ownership is no problem.
That said, you don’t really need to watch institutional ownership. You can pretty much monitor what big money are doing by watching fastline of MACD on dailies (like 3months chart). And stochastic will pretty much show you what short term swingers are doing. At least that is one of the ways of how to look at those indicators.
So for hitching the ride with them you don’t really need to know what institutional ownership data is saying as decreasing fastline of MACD will tell you they are unloading and rising one will tell you they are getting back in.
nolavabo 2:54 pm on August 24, 2010 634 days ago Reply
Agreed. As a general rule, it takes big players to create serious volume in the market. Thus, using volume as a key qualifier to test the “significance” of any move is folding in the behaviour of the institutions. Yes, it’s not an isolated variable, but for me volume is second only to price in importance in my style of TA.