Hot on the heels of the BAM stuff yesterday we now have Forrester basically saying that despite Apple shipping 2million units of the iPad they will only clear 3.5 million altogether this year.
Philip Elmer DeWitt is covering it on his board over at Fortune.
Forrester: iPad sales will plummet
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/18/forrester-ipad-sales-will-plummet/
In other words, in Forrester’s opinion, the 2 million iPads Apple sold in April and May were a fluke. It will be lucky sell 1.5 million in the U.S. between June and December — or fewer than 215,000 per month.
“Consumers didn’t ask for tablets,” she points out in her summary. “In fact, Forrester’s data shows that the top features consumers say they want in a PC are a complete mismatch with the features of the iPad.”
When you look at it that way, it’s a miracle Apple (AAPL) sold any iPads at all.
conshmillo 12:03 pm on June 18, 2010 701 days ago Reply
in first wave iPad is going to be most attractive to the population that didn’t want to use computers in the first place. That’s the whole new additional (nonexistent before) group that will add revenue to Apple without cannibalizing rest of the line. All the non geek population that needs to get to their email and internet, do some basic writing etc.
Then, when Apple will actually give people the iPad that was meant to be (like it finally gave us iPhone 4) with the front facing camera, ability to draw on it as one can draw on WACOM tablet and include a freaking print function, it is going to be adopted by larger population.
I keep saying the greatest underdeveloped feature of all iOS devices is peripherals. These no-vision number crunchers doesn’t have slightest idea that is coming.
Consumers didn’t ask for DVDs either and here we are. As for PCs, better question than ask what consumers want IN their PCs is to ask whether consumers desire to HAVE PCs in the first place. Because my feeling is that big box bulky thing we used call PC is on the way out. Like a gramophone.
GotWake 3:37 pm on June 18, 2010 701 days ago Reply
I completely agree. Printing and iWorks are my biggest complaints. Apple needs to make working with files completely seamless across their platforms. iWorks for the iPad is a disappointment for me. Having special formats stripped from files is unacceptable. For business use, it has some big problems.
Having said that, I have an iPad and it is one great device for consumption. It will not happen over night, but as these devices get more capable, the less we will rely on the old box computer.
As far as Forrester, She doesn’t seem to understand that the market is changing.
nolavabo 6:37 pm on June 18, 2010 701 days ago Reply
Consumers are idiots, who don’t know what they want or need.
Henry Ford supposedly said “If I had asked my customers what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse.”
Analysts are even bigger idiots, because they believe that consumers know what they want or need.
Another insight from Henry Ford for you. “A market is never saturated with a good product, but it is very quickly saturated with a bad one.”