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  • Nicu

    Nicu 7:38 pm on February 17, 2012 - 92 days ago

    “Call this column “confessions of a reformed Apple hater.” I’ve spent the better part of my career insisting that Apple products were not for me–this after my first job in tech was reviewing them for the now-defunct Mac Home Journal. The company was too controlling, the prices too high, the forced upgrade march too abusive, the closed system too limiting.

    Now, just a week ago, I traded in my fourth Android phone (a Samsung Galaxy Nexus) for an iPhone 4S, which just about completes the cycle of Apple in my life. I bought a MacBook Air to replace a balky HP laptop running Windows Vista. I own an iPad because, well, what other tablet would I own? I have an iPod Touch almost solely to power a Bose sound system (and because I wanted to Facetime with my son back before I had the iPhone). And the other day, when my mom was complaining about startup times, printing, and wireless networking, the words, “you should get a Mac” were out of my mouth before I could stop them.”

    SOURCE:
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-31322_3-57379818-256/why-apple-is-winning/?part=rss&subj=news&tag=title

     

  • Nicu 7:37 pm on February 17, 2012 - 92 days ago

    Nicu

    AAPL decoupled from indexes about an hour or so ago, preparing for options expiration :)
    Max pain is at $450

     

  • Nicu 6:06 pm on February 17, 2012 - 92 days ago

    4
    Nicu

    Possible arbitrage on TSLA:

    buy Jan ’13 25$ C sell Jan ’13 $25 put – even the worse bid / ask combination this costs at most $7.7
    in the same time sell short 100x shares so you get a $9.66 above $25

    wait with the play until options expiration and you win $196 x (number of contracts) for free with no risk as the options combination will give the difference to $25 times 100 for each pair of options (if below $25 you lose the difference but this is warranted by the shorted shares) – it is a synthetic long for which you pay $7.7 but you sell today for $9.66

    the only catch for this “free money” is that there are no shares available to short for several months already; but for those who already own the shares, they can simply sell and buy the option combination and collect the free bonus

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 6:57 pm on February 17, 2012 92 days ago

      one more logic step: this means there are no hedge funds that have TSLA (only those slow institutional investors), otherwise their algorithms would detect those arbitrage possibilities in less than a millisecond and execute on it

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:01 pm on February 21, 2012 88 days ago

      took advantage of some sort of arbitrage like that without having the shares: going simply synthetic long at $31.5

      in Jan ’14 $40 C short Jan ’14 $40 P @ $8.5 credit

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:06 pm on May 17, 2012 2 days ago

        exchanged those short J14 $40 C to short J14 $45 C for $3.95 credit !!!

        meaning that I got $3.95 cash now for a max loss of $5 in 20 months – the bearish sentiment is really out of control!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:12 pm on February 21, 2012 88 days ago

      more synth long at $30.5 by
      in Jan ’14 $45 C short $45 P @ $14.5 credit

  • 1
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 1:53 pm on February 17, 2012 - 92 days ago

    I read about full integration of Twitter in OS 10.8 Mountain Lion, and only conclusion that comes to my mind ( we are reading about continuous integration of Twitter into OSX for quite a while ) is that Twitter will be Apple’s Facebook.

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 1:58 pm on February 17, 2012 92 days ago

      Now that I think of it, Twitter was probably already bought in some way by Apple – before the Twitter’s IPO!

  • 2
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 4:15 pm on February 16, 2012 - 93 days ago

    following is quote from today’s article by Nigam Arora on Marketwatch.

    “When Apple AAPL -1.35% staged a technical breakout from micro resistance at $525, I issued a signal to trim any Apple positions.”

    and…

    “I have not turned a bear on Apple. Since recommending Apple when it was at $131, I have been a big Apple bull. I was writing that Apple stock could go to $1000 long before Apple became a popular investment.

    I am also not bearish on the stock market. Our adaptive algorithms ,i.e., the algorithms that automatically change based on market conditions, continue to show that unless something changes, any correction will be shallow.

    The systems at The Arora Report analyze trading patterns and combine the statistical conclusions from trading patterns with a bevy of macro, fundamental, quantitative, technical and other relevant pieces of data to generate actionable signals. These algorithms concluded that the trading pattern Apple was experiencing just prior to the signal to trim the position showed that Apple stock was vulnerable in the short term. Trading patterns also showed that the smart money (sophisticated investors) was also trimming positions in Apple.”

    SOURCE:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-i-trimmed-apple-at-525-2012-02-16

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 4:28 pm on February 16, 2012 93 days ago

      One could just skip the fancy lingo of “adaptive algorithms” and say, hey, there is a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern that usually indicates reversal (Wait, that sounds fancy too :-) ). But hat’s off to him for docking another $25.00 from our call on weakening trend at Traderhood on Feb 13th!

    • Birra

      Birra 1:19 am on February 17, 2012 93 days ago

      It’s no wonder why AAPL never reaches its proper valuation. However, ‘sophisticated investors’ is a nice euphemism. However, thanks for having the intestinal fortitude to own up and offer your rationalization.

  • 3
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 11:00 pm on February 15, 2012 - 94 days ago

    Awesome, I am glad somebody from Apple is reading Traderhood!

    SOURCE:
    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/02/15/apple_says_ios_update_will_require_user_permission_for_apps_to_access_address_book.html

     
    • Silk Hope

      Silk Hope 12:02 am on February 16, 2012 94 days ago

      My next door neighbor’s son is the V.P. of Marketing. Need some dirt. Kind of a funk site i thought.

      • JPWatkins

        JPWatkins 5:14 am on February 16, 2012 93 days ago

        He’s the VP of Path, or AppleInsider?
        AppleInsider, I’m thinking. But maybe Path?

        Funny that Apple has not noticed these kinds of abuses before. I always assumed sandboxing and the the APIs prevent this kind of thing.
        Makes me think it’s harder to review iApp software submissions and to know what they do than Apple has implied.

        • Silk Hope

          Silk Hope 2:12 pm on February 16, 2012 93 days ago

          Path.

  • 1
    Silk Hope

    Silk Hope 6:21 pm on February 15, 2012 - 94 days ago

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/368061-why-did-apple-pull-the-ipad-from-amazon-s-chinese-shelves?source=email_rt_article&ifp=0

     
    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 11:45 pm on February 15, 2012 94 days ago

      I’m thinking it’s not a big problem. Although rule of law is not China’s forte, I think they are smart enough not to screw Apple over on such a bogus issue.

  • conshmillo 6:09 pm on February 15, 2012 - 94 days ago

    7
    conshmillo

    Wham, from $526 to $506 in 20 minutes.

     
    • JPWatkins

      JPWatkins 11:53 pm on February 15, 2012 94 days ago

      So the question, as I see it, is will it find support at 494 480 or 455? (The most probable support prices I see on the charts.)
      I’m thinking higher rather than lower. I still think this is mostly OE activity that will dissipate on Monday. What do you think Conshmillo?

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 4:22 am on February 16, 2012 94 days ago

        Yeah, I don’t think 494 will hold, my bet would be 460 or so. But we have so many open internal factors (dividend possibility, china delays due to the trademark lawsuit) and external factors (Greece/eu) that can make things better or worse that it’s hard to tell. But good thing is it is not necessary to know. One can have one limit buy order around 460 and one stop buy order above 527 and play it as either a reversal or a breakout – whichever comes first.

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 4:26 am on February 16, 2012 94 days ago

          Difference would be that with reversal one should be loading in gradually in case first support doesn’t hold and in case of breakout one should have tight stop in case it’s a fake out.

          • JPWatkins

            JPWatkins 5:08 am on February 16, 2012 93 days ago

            Your analysis sounds reasonable to me. I’m thinking that on the face of it, those internal factors are not so important, but I think the market makers are trying to make a big deal of them to move the price. Who is stronger? I see high volatility.
            Thanks for the insights, consh.

    • Silk Hope

      Silk Hope 12:07 am on February 16, 2012 94 days ago

      @ JP pull out for a day or two and get back in.

      • JPWatkins

        JPWatkins 12:41 am on February 16, 2012 94 days ago

        I pulled out 100 shares yesterday at $503.77, so I can get back in anytime (probably Friday or Monday?) Fortunately I was away all day today so I didn’t get nervous with the big runup!

        • JPWatkins

          JPWatkins 12:43 am on February 16, 2012 94 days ago

          Interestingly Option Pain for Friday is at $450.

  • 1
    Silk Hope

    Silk Hope 4:48 pm on February 15, 2012 - 94 days ago

    ApGarten:

    four things driving this:

    Rumor for the dividend so obviously folks are getting in because they want to loose out.

    ipad 3 coming out in march.

    ITV coming out whenever. Can you imagine saying: Siri please change to channel 4. Absolute game changer no more remote and having four or five of the damn things on your coffee table.

    iphone 5

     
    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 4:55 pm on February 15, 2012 94 days ago

      Craziest thing is that Apple is on the trajectory to put Microsoft out of it’s misery.

  • Silk Hope

    Silk Hope 4:41 pm on February 15, 2012 - 94 days ago

    Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF), Time Warner (TWX)

    Often companies introduce a new product or concept that gets investors abuzz, only to find that the innovation was not enough to move the needle in the stock. However, Cramer thinks Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) will see an upside from its films based on the best-selling book Hunger Games. While the highly popular Harry Potter series didn’t impact the fortunes of Time Warner (TWX) dramatically, TWX is a multi-media conglomerate. Lions Gate is small, with a mere $1.5 billion market cap, so one successful film series will make a huge difference for the company. The Hunger Games book series will be made into four films, and the first movie alone is expected to make 87 cents a share for the company. LGF completed a successful merger with Summit Entertainment, and now has the rights to the successful Twilight film series. LGF’s stock popped 7% in anticipation of Hunger Games, but Cramer thinks the stock has more room to run, and may be a $15 stock masquerading as an $11 stock. However, Cramer would wait for a pullback before buying.

     
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