Any insight regarding this would be welcome.
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Curious what all you TA people think about this:
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Nicu
This is very tasty to Henry Blodget too
http://www.businessinsider.com/anyone-who-expects-apples-growth-to-rebound-is-living-in-denial-2011-11?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Falleyinsider%2Fsilicon_alley_insider+%28Silicon+Alley+Insider%29But to look at the stock price and conclude that the company is not doing well is as stupid as one can get. There was a minor blip last quarter, only due to the transition in iPhone. As it did not happen at the same date as usual, y/y comparisons may be worrying for the casual observer. But we are looking at a quarter with potentially $12 EPS, or around 100% growth y/y. They are investing like crazy in manufacturing capacity for the next year and I would be really surprised if growth in 2012 is below 80% (except some crazy double dip, financial crash, $200 / barrel, war etc.). Those guys will be caught with their pants down and strong head wind. Excluding cash and taking into account this quarter’s earnings, we are at a P/E of around 8.5. With trailing and very probably forward growth of about 80%.
As for investing, there is no better time to step in than when everybody has their morale in their socks and there’s blood in the street (even if it’s your own). Especially as people ignore reality and prefer the herd. I am scrambling to rise cash to improve my calls and get new ones, because in one year from now we are going to knock at $600′s door.
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Bunratty
Yes, well said! In the short-term, I hope to see AAPL back around 420-430 by January earnings.
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Nicu
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conshmillo
Let’s not be delusional. There are some new facts in regard to Apple that weren’t present before. Biggest one being Steve is not there anymore. We talked about mass psychology in various posts and comments and there is certainly army of people out there that worry that Apple without Steve Jobs is not Apple. These people are taking money out while their profits are good. I am sure this was major factor why AAPL crossed 50 day ema. It is a perception problem. Some people may consider Apple to be weak without it’s captain.
Then there is Android, and as much as many of us may not use it or like it, it has an influence on the market. Especially I read very good point here at traderhood about android being more attractive to carriers because they don’t have to pay so much to Google as they have to pay to Apple. This lowers Apples bargaining power with them. Also I am sure carriers would like to regain their total power they had over handsets before Apple entered the market.
I don’t think Amazon should be taken lightly either.
On the other hand there are positive factors like Apple’s products being accepted by mainstream. There is a whole market share that can be taken from Microsoft. That’s a huge growth possibility.
Technically AAPL is indeed acting weak. It got a little bounce off 380 few days back all the way back to the edge of 50 day EMA, but never got above it and resumed descent again crossing back down negative on daily stochastic at 30% which is pathetic. I think AAPL could get back into rebound mode in next few days/weeks but it depends more on DJIA than AAPL. DJIA is licking it’s own 50 day EMA. If it can bounce off it and continue higher, AAPL is in good place to do the same. It would be more of the move that is in sync with enveloping market, than AAPL leading it. In order for AAPL to bounce aggressively we would need some kind of surprising unexpected positive news. Split, major acquisition, new unexpected product, etc.
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Nicu
I was simply claiming that Apple’s business is not ready to slow its growth to the 20-25% predicted by “experts” since 2005. When the stock is weak but the company is solid, a long term investor should recognize the opportunity.
There is enough place for both iPhone and Android to thrive for a few years. They are both eating into the huge pie of non-smartphone market. Note that many phones that are counted as Android sales are dumbed down to feature phones (no apps, web etc.) but they run the same kernes / OS. Apple is steadily building the business for the long haul without cutting corners and without compromises (to carriers that insists to control software, billing or other aspects).
As for the iPad, we are influenced by short term numbers but we forget that it’s growing much faster than the iPhone or the iPod ever did. It will really replace most laptops in a few years and has a chance to go beyond, attracting people who never owned a PC (yes, there are many of them). I wouldn’t be surprised if iPad sold 200M units in 2014. Competitors are already recognizing defeat …
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Bunratty
Is AAPL currently more in sync with S&P than the DJIA? Will AAPL detach itself from the enveloping market in another run up in Dec-Jan?
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“A refined version of the experiment that showed neutrinos could travel faster than light is repeated – and comes to the same conclusion.”
SOURCE:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15791236-
conshmillo
oops.
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Nicu
I bet most scientists are thrilled by the possibility. It’s just a huge opportunity to advance the limits of our knowledge. But like in any other adventure, you take a risk if you go too soon in that direction. If it’s not true, you lose some precious years and unfortunately your career degrades significantly. So, like in the market, some will take the risk, others will wait and see. But very few will criticize it or be afraid of it (or whatever irrational behavior you may think of.)
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conshmillo
Not my point. I am all excited about new possibilities. Only reason I posted that is to address followers of holy church thermodynamics. Speed of light was as holy as laws of thermodynamics are today. It is laws of thermodynamics that claim overunity is not possible. Where aside from other things in most of the directions in overunity research heat is considered to be a sign of going in the wrong direction.
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Richard
Yes, this is terrific. The natural conservative point of view is that they are screwing up somehow, and you know that is the most probable explanation. It is VERY easy to screw up: hell, on rare occasions, I’ve even done it myself! BUT if it pans out … and we’ll know is a year or two … it tells us that the Gordian knot of physics is far indeed from being unravelled. Which is wonderful news as far as I’m concerned! What fun! And the biggest joy is that we pathetic creatures … can in fact do it! Bravo!
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JPWatkins
Well, spooky action at a distance has always implied that information of some kind can travel any distance instantly, which seems crazy to me, but hey.
This is actually kind of ironic as one of the best confirmations of the theory of general relativity (if I have my facts straight) was when it was shown that gravity travels only at the speed of light (Newtonian physics implies that it is instantaneous.) -
GotWake
http://www.zdnet.com/news/cern-speed-of-light-breakthrough-the-result-of-a-glitch/6346401
CERN speed-of-light breakthrough the result of a glitch?
The followers of the holy church of Thermodynamics cross their fingers in anticipation. Water starts flowing uphill. Heat flowing from hot cold reverses…..
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JPWatkins
LOL
I can just hear the guy who figured it out (probably an old school, low paid, guy with only one degree who actually keeps everything running at CERN,) “Well, *here’s* your problem . . . “
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Another great article from Rex Nutting:
“Whenever the people (that is, the government) propose some restriction to right some wrong, you’ll always find a businessman protesting that the costs would be too great and that, in the words of Charles Dickens in Hard Times, he would “sooner pitch his property into the Atlantic” than comply with the rules.
Of course, no property is ever pitched in the ocean. The businessman does what businessmen do: He fights the regulation tooth and nail, but if it is approved, he finds a way to make money without poisoning the water, fouling the air, employing toddlers or killing his customers.”
SOURCE:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/regulations-dont-kill-jobs-they-create-them-2011-11-18?pagenumber=1 -
Folks we are getting dangerously close to the DJIA 50 DAY EMA currently at 11,700! Today intraday we already went briefly below but bounced back. If it doesn’t hold we may see larger drop in DJIA and as a result drop in all individual stocks.
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“While SOPA supporters have tried to present the copyright bill as a bipartisan effort to stop the “theft” of copyrighted material, the bipartisan opposition has been building fast this week. Today, House minority speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has come out against it, too, saying on Twitter that “[we] need to find a better solution.””
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conshmillo
Right on Nancy!!!
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Played For Sure
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Nice product line, Samsung
SOURCE:
http://www.minimallyminimal.com/journal/2011/11/16/coffee-time-market-share-vs-profit.html -
This is just plain weird.
http://www.cultofmac.com/130432/apple-wants-to-give-your-iphone-screen-protecting-airbags/
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So how many parents are going to become goats by saving some bucks on a Kindle Ash (fail).
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Birra
But here’s what I’m getting for my son who’s practically a Mammoth Lakes resident.
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Birra 12:46 am on November 19, 2011 183 days ago Reply
Here’s the US equivalent.
“Status changes made on first pager (130 and 530) are wirelessly communicated to an infrastructure (110 and 510) which communicates the status changes to other pagers (150 and 550) so that the other pagers make corresponding status changes. Thus, a user’s status changes made on one pager are automatically made on the user’s other pagers. Status changes include changes to received messages, alarm times, alert thresholds, and key word alerts.”
My take is this is like saying I can patent calling my wife to be sure we show up at the same time. The ability to do it electronically is so obvious it’s patently (no sense of humor on this board so at least snicker) stupid. Of course these are lawyers who make money on the obvious like wills.
JPWatkins 9:16 pm on November 19, 2011 182 days ago Reply
That was my feeling as well. There has to be valid prior art on this.
Patent interpretation can be amazingly capricious.