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  • 1
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 1:38 am on June 7, 2010 - 2487 days ago

    I don’t know yet what Europe will do as London’s (FTSE 100) that I watch is not open yet. But China is down -1.91% and S&P 500 futures (/ES) are acting quite weak. Unless some news come out of EU we’ll have most probably weak Monday.

    After the jobs report on Friday, optimism in quick recovery will probably wane somewhat. However technicals on markets (3 months DIA, SPY, QQQQ) do not look that bad. So it is going to be turf war between longer term economic data fundamentalists and shorter term technical traders. This will probably create a lot of non-directional choppines. Probably the best thing before doing anything is to wait for DIA/SPY to cross bullish on 3 months stochastic.

    I am thinking oil could help markets to recover a bit as it is way too oversold. There are some news that BP was partially successful to cap containment. If they announce they managed to contain the problem, it could be the catalyst for oil stocks/etfs to gain.

    AAPL is technically at the same position as market ETFs. Probably the best thing when going long will be to wait for 3 months stochastic to cross bullish.

     
    • RattyUK

      RattyUK 7:12 am on June 7, 2010 2487 days ago

      Engadget and the rest are showing a new Bluetooth trackpad – could this be the controller for a new Apple TV?

  • 108
    Nicu

    Nicu 2:09 pm on June 4, 2010 - 2490 days ago

    I was not able to go to VIX board, so I’ll post my entry in VIX 21 Oct. PUTs @ $.5, my average on those is $.81 now; also have some Oct. 19 PUTs @ $.4

    The board was down (I think), I exchanged few days ago AAPL Jun. $250 calls to $260 calls for $7.05, I bought this difference about two weeks ago for $2.75 – now my average on those ($260 calls) is about $4.5

     
    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:08 am on June 7, 2010 2487 days ago

      In AAPL June $270 calls @ $2, trying to play an eventual spike today

      • Nicu

        Nicu 12:05 pm on June 7, 2010 2487 days ago

        limit sell @ $4.2 for half, the other half @ $8.5, I’ll be away later :) I’ll get home after the end of the keynote

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:35 pm on June 8, 2010 2486 days ago

      so there was no spike :( got some more @ $.9, average at $1.45 – trying to get even

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:43 pm on June 9, 2010 2485 days ago

      in AAPL Jul $260 calls @ $7.5

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:13 pm on June 9, 2010 2485 days ago

      in AAPL June $260 calls @ $1.5

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 3:17 pm on June 9, 2010 2485 days ago

        @nicu
        I am monitoring intraday DIA. I will see at close if I may join you tomorrow.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:38 pm on June 9, 2010 2485 days ago

      in AAPL Oct $270 calls @ 13.95

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:59 am on June 10, 2010 2484 days ago

      in AAPL Jul $260 calls @ $6

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:47 am on June 16, 2010 2478 days ago

      out of AAPL July $260 calls @ $12.25 (+ $6.25)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:15 am on June 16, 2010 2478 days ago

      trailing stopped on 25% of my AAPL June $260 calls @ $4.4 (+ $1.4 compared to the average price paid)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:52 am on June 16, 2010 2478 days ago

      out of 50% June AAPL $270 calls @ $1.01 (-$.44 on the average price, the deadline is approaching like a high speed train …)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:09 pm on June 16, 2010 2478 days ago

      out of AAPL June calls : 25% of $260 calls @ $6.8, 25% @ $6.52 (average price about $3) and of the other half of $270 calls @ $1.13 (-$.32 – glad I escaped, even if we go to $280 tomorrow :) )

    • admin

      admin 2:30 pm on June 16, 2010 2478 days ago

      nice going!!

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:24 pm on June 16, 2010 2478 days ago

        @admin
        thanks, just got stopped out my last quarter of June $260 calls @ $7.05 (+ $4.05) :)

        I had the same # of $260 and $270 calls so this play is mostly profit (including the small loss on the $270 calls)

        few days ago I thought I’ll have the second loss on AAPL calls (had some expired worthless in May) but I got lucky again, huh !

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:39 am on June 17, 2010 2477 days ago

      out of July AAPL $260 calls @ $17.75 (+ $10.25)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:01 am on June 21, 2010 2473 days ago

      exchanged AAPL July $260 calls to $270 calls for $7.2 :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:55 pm on June 21, 2010 2473 days ago

      in AAPL July $280 cals @ $7

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:06 pm on June 21, 2010 2473 days ago

      in AAPL Aug $290 calls @ $9.95

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:07 pm on June 21, 2010 2473 days ago

      I’m getting ready for earnings, I will improve them if she slides even to $250

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:14 pm on June 21, 2010 2473 days ago

      more Jul $280 @ $5.9

    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 9:55 am on June 22, 2010 2472 days ago

      I’ve been trying to pick the bottom in AAPL. Looks like it was yesterday. In July $270 calls for $11.05. This will run, as a minimum, until the iPhone 4 sales numbers are released, probably on Monday 28. Then there is earnings coming up, which will smash analysts’ expectations once again.

      I will be looking to buy August calls if any pullback occurs.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:50 pm on June 23, 2010 2471 days ago

      I was out today but two limit orders were executed : in AAPL Aug $280 calls @ $12.5, in AAPL Aug $290 calls @ $8.9

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:36 am on June 28, 2010 2466 days ago

      improved AAPL Aug calls from $290 to $280 for $3.35

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:37 am on June 29, 2010 2465 days ago

      more AAPL Aug $280 calls @ $10

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:42 am on June 29, 2010 2465 days ago

      improved AAPL July calls from $280 to $270 for $2.75

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:02 am on June 29, 2010 2465 days ago

      more VIX Oct 19 puts @ $.2, now average $.3

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:19 am on June 29, 2010 2465 days ago

      more VIX Oct 21 puts @ $.4, avg $.73

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:31 am on June 29, 2010 2465 days ago

      more AAPL Aug $280 calls @ $8

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:00 pm on June 29, 2010 2465 days ago

      I was out but the limit order I was hoping for was filled : improved AAPL Aug $280 calls to $270 calls for $3.3

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:03 am on July 1, 2010 2463 days ago

      improved AAPL Jul calls from $270 to $260 for $2.3

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:38 am on July 1, 2010 2463 days ago

      improved AAPL Aug calls from $270 to $260 for $3.3

      with that, I’m all in, no more buying power ’cause I shorted Jan 12 $300 puts, no worry for a margin call, just that I cannot buy any more without selling some stock, for a smaller profit than projected :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:58 am on July 12, 2010 2452 days ago

      more July $260 calls @ $2.4, just gambling here
      with the last available buying power I put an order for some more @ $2

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:34 am on July 13, 2010 2451 days ago

      more AAPL July $260 calls @ $2.03, last one, promise :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:41 am on July 13, 2010 2451 days ago

      brrrr, I could have get a lot more with the same money :(

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:53 am on July 13, 2010 2451 days ago

      more AAPL Aug $260 calls @ $9 (sold some shares for that @ $249.87)

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 10:16 am on July 13, 2010 2451 days ago

      Picked up Jan 12 260s for 48.75…weird to see everything up and Apple down. Should have picked up some long term CAT calls last month.

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 10:18 am on July 13, 2010 2451 days ago

      We would have been over 265 if not for this antenna BS… Almost a $20 hit on the stock.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:24 am on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

      in AAPL Jul $250 calls $2.2

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 1:02 pm on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

      Man, the stock is just sitting there @ 250 @ 13h00.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:40 pm on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

      out of 1/3 AAPL Jul $250 calls @ $4.6, 1/3 @ $4.43, the other 1/3 on trailing stop $.9

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 1:41 pm on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

      Great call!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:41 pm on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

      ok, out @ $3.66

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 1:50 pm on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

        @nicu
        got out of my JUL250 @4.85 (in @2.90)
        will look for possible re-entry. Dow is messing things up pretty badly today. can’t shake the drop.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:47 pm on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

      make few buck on those but lost more on Jul $260 calls that will expire in 2 hours :(

      my hope now are on earnings and my Aug $260 calls :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:43 pm on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

      in AAPL Aug $280 calls @ $3.75

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 3:44 pm on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

      made one more round trip on JUL250. From $1.99 to $2.60 for another .61 (30.65%)

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 4:01 pm on July 16, 2010 2448 days ago

      Now if we could only find out the August pin…..

    • Nicu

      Nicu 7:06 pm on July 17, 2010 2446 days ago

      I added up all my trades on AAPL Jul calls starting in January and including the round trip from last Friday and to my surprise, thanks to several swings and despite getting greedy towards the expiration (added more and more calls), I turned a small global profit of about $2.8k including fees

      I also added up and I’m in Aug calls for about $21k (price paid, the actual value now is less)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:35 am on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      bought to cover AAPL Jan 11 $370 calls @ $2.85 (+ about $2.7)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:39 am on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      improved AAPL Aug $280 calls to $260 calls for $5

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:43 am on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      in AAPL Jan 11 $300 calls @ $12.2

    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 9:44 am on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      AAPL is now worth more than it ever has been before, especially since earnings are nearly here and MUST be factored into the PPS. Everybody knows this, everybody knows AAPL is going to crush earnings again.

      And the stock is nearly $30 off it’s all time highs. This is the illogic of the stock market. You can be right all the time, and still lose money.

      AAPL’s EPS has been moving only upwards for the last 5 years. Therefore the stock price should too – but it went 100 202 115 185 78 272 and now 249. In the long run, the PPS will always come back to match the EPS, but in the short term strong divergences can occur. Timing is as important as direction. I believe AAPL is worth $300, but I also believe it’ll see $220-$230 first. $200 is not out of the question either. Looking back, the $78 price level was a gift. Try to view $200 as just another gift.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 10:10 am on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

        @nolavabo
        I know what you mean, but there is a real chance that we see AAPL at $300 before October and if it goes there, I want to ride this wave for all it’s worth :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:01 am on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      improved AAPL Jan 11 $300 calls to $280 calls for $5.4 (those I bought few minutes ago)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:06 am on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      in AAPL Oct $270 call @ $11.15 – again at max purchasing power, after unloading some AAPL

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:23 am on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      improved AAPL Oct $270 calls to $260 calls for $3.4

    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 11:40 am on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      It is possible to make time predictions reasonably well, and possible to make price predictions reasonably well. NOBODY can make price WITH time predictions consistently (except Goldman Sachs it seems).

      I’m in calls for the earnings report. I will be selling and banking profit on any pop. I am considering closing down my entire Australian account and shifting the cash to the US to buy as much AAPL as I can when she eventually bottoms, wherever/whenever that is. Then sticking exclusively to writing covered calls to generate some income along the way. The market is sucking up too much of my time these days.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:57 pm on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      in VIX Oct 21 puts @ $.25, now average of $.55

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 5:15 pm on July 19, 2010 2445 days ago

      In Oct 270s at around $10 and January 2012s at around $52 (ave. $56)…looks like it’s a repeat of last quarter so far….Opex around $250….two days of $244ish….hopefully same trend…$256-$272…for Wed-Fri….

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:45 am on July 20, 2010 2444 days ago

      sold AAPL Jan 12 $270 call @ $43.1 for buying power, got more Aug $260 calls @ $6.1

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:46 am on July 20, 2010 2444 days ago

      oh, -$3.9 on the call sold

    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:44 pm on July 23, 2010 2441 days ago

      more AAPL Aug $260 calls @ 7.45, average about $12.9

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:02 am on July 28, 2010 2436 days ago

      exchanged Jan ’11 $240 AAPL calls to $250 calls for $6.35

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:32 am on July 29, 2010 2435 days ago

      more AAPL Aug $260 calls @ $5.9

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:03 am on August 5, 2010 2428 days ago

      in AAPL Aug $270 calls @ $2.2, I hope it will be for the very short term, ideally day trade

    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:38 pm on August 5, 2010 2428 days ago

      stopped @ $2.16

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:46 am on August 6, 2010 2427 days ago

      in Aug $270 calls @ $1.7, again hoping for a day trade

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:35 pm on August 6, 2010 2427 days ago

      stopped @ $1.46, I think it’s not my thing, those day trades :(

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:18 pm on August 6, 2010 2427 days ago

      in AAPL Aug $260 calls @ $4.2, using the last bit of buying power

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:48 am on August 9, 2010 2424 days ago

      stopped @ $4.75 on half of the calls I got @ $4.2, still on the borderline with the margin calls :(

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:54 am on August 9, 2010 2424 days ago

      in AAPL Aug $270 calls @ $1.3, hopefully a lucky day trade

    • Ahhnold

      Ahhnold 5:48 pm on August 9, 2010 2423 days ago

      Did you end up selling towards the end of the day Nicu? I’m avged down on Aug 270 calls at $1.90; almost sold before close. Not sure what will happen tomorrow with the Fed Reserve policy meeting thing.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 6:12 pm on August 9, 2010 2423 days ago

      nope, I wanted about $1.7 as I did not get many of those and there are some fees … I took the risk to hold them overnight

      FED is at 14:15
      http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:41 am on August 10, 2010 2423 days ago

      more $270 @ $1 (doubled the small position)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:35 pm on August 10, 2010 2423 days ago

      felt forced (buying power) to cover the $300 Jan 12 put @ $69.2 (shorted @ $70.4)

      I have made several mistakes with this damn thing :
      – I did not anticipate correctly how much it will erode my buying power
      – I did not set a trailing stop when AAPL was at $279
      – I started cashing things that were not fully mature (shares and options) to cover for this shit

      NEVER AGAIN ! (I hope some will learn from my rage and avoid this error)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:40 pm on August 10, 2010 2423 days ago

      doubled again the position on Aug $270 calls @ $.75

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:12 pm on August 10, 2010 2423 days ago

      in Aug $260 calls @ $3.6

      trying to swing them to limit damages :(

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:01 pm on August 10, 2010 2423 days ago

      in AAPL @ $260, just taking advantage of my new freedom (buying power) :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:32 am on August 11, 2010 2422 days ago

      more Aug $260 calls @ $2, this thing is killing me :(

      • caruso2323

        caruso2323 12:37 pm on August 12, 2010 2421 days ago

        @nicu
        Since you are heavily playing with options , why don’t you subscribe to the paying real-time Maximum Pain ? Not sure how much they charge though …
        The old data suggest : 250
        http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php

        Do you think the MM’s will pin it to 250 ?

    • Ahhnold

      Ahhnold 10:06 am on August 11, 2010 2422 days ago

      I feel your pain nici. I’m avg on aug 270′s at around $1.36 and I really thought we’d be ok today with the late afternoon spike yesterday. These last couple months have been horrible

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:32 am on August 11, 2010 2422 days ago

      last block of Aug $270 calls @ $.34, average $.61, excluding fees

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:14 am on August 11, 2010 2422 days ago

      more Aug $260 calls @ $1.51

    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:43 pm on August 11, 2010 2422 days ago

      in AAPL @ $250.13

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 12:58 pm on August 11, 2010 2422 days ago

      nolav is the only one who sold day after earnings. I was at the computer in the morning after earnings, but it took too long to start up at 6:30AM and by the time I got there, it was already even. So I said to myself, I’ll wait a little bit. It never recovered.

      As a defense I bought couple of days ago DIA SEP puts. Those are partially offsetting my AAPL loses. It is tempting to buy more long Apples today, but I don’t believe this will get much better before Friday reports are over.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:42 am on August 12, 2010 2421 days ago

      stopped out of some $260 calls @ $1.41

      other trailing stops set :(

    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:54 pm on August 12, 2010 2421 days ago

      it may be $250 or $260; you may simply look at the open interest in the options chains (both calls and puts) and you easily guess the approximative max pain

      anyway, as I said earlier, I’ll try to get safely out of those calls and stay away from the short term from now on :)

      how is that you don’t have any long term calls ? you are so bullish on AAPL and you may set say 5% of your portfolio and buy out of the money Jan ’12 calls and if AAPL gets to $400 in 17 months, you probably win as much as 50% of your portfolio

      example : Jan ’12 $280 calls are about $35 now so if AAPL gets to $400 even on the expiry day (few days before earnings, mind you), you my sell them for $120 ($400 – strike $280)
      just an example, you do not put too much $ in it, no swings, no timing … just a bet on your long term bullishness :)

      I have Jan ’12 $230 calls I got about 7 months ago; I also have Jan ’11 $250, $260 and $280 calls :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:51 pm on August 12, 2010 2421 days ago

      stopped again on Aug $260 calls @ $1.28

      Still have about 2/3 of those, for which I consider waiting a bit longer

    • Nicu

      Nicu 1:57 pm on August 12, 2010 2421 days ago

      stopped on all my Aug $270 calls @ $.22 – as I said earlier, failed day trade, not much money involved but obviously I’m not glad about it :(

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:59 am on August 13, 2010 2420 days ago

      in again Aug $260 calls @ $.98

    • Nicu

      Nicu 11:07 am on August 13, 2010 2420 days ago

      even more @ $.75

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:58 pm on August 13, 2010 2420 days ago

      last block of Aug $260 calls @ $.53

      • conshmillo

        conshmillo 4:13 pm on August 13, 2010 2420 days ago

        @nicu
        I am expecting little run to 255 by the middle of the next week. That would be about 40% retracement from most recent support of 246.69. If it does, I will most probably take it as we are in the MACD bearish territory and this down trend may resume.

    • Nicu

      Nicu 6:24 pm on August 13, 2010 2419 days ago

      I will start selling those calls lightly around $1.5-$2, a bit more in the $3-$4 range and if they get to $4, I’ll put trailing stops on all of them – my average is still too high (did not compute it yet) to hope for a profit but I’ll try to limit the damage

      Have a nice week-end all :)

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:12 pm on August 16, 2010 2417 days ago

      another small block of Aug $260 calls @ $.24

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:31 pm on August 16, 2010 2417 days ago

      improved Jan ’11 $280 calls to $270 calls for $3.3

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:51 am on August 19, 2010 2414 days ago

      i feel like an alcoholic, I got more $260 calls @ $.1

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 10:21 am on August 19, 2010 2414 days ago

      nicu ! …

      I don’t get it !… Do you expect that AAPL will rise to $260 by tomorrow ? … AAPL seems to be pinned for $250 till Tomorrow as options expire with max pain at 250

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:34 am on August 19, 2010 2414 days ago

      not really, I hoped in good numbers at 10am or AAPL to disconnect a bit from NASDAQ, none happened :(

      it is enough for AAPL to go higher 2-3$ today to double that; it’s a very small position compared to what I lost in this play so some unexpected pop may help recover a bit from the rest …

    • caruso2323

      caruso2323 4:14 pm on August 19, 2010 2414 days ago

      I am better to profess this to others than to myself : The best thing to do after taking some losses is to STOP … The more we try to recuperate losses and the greater risks we tend to take.

      2009 was a picnic compared to 2010 which sounds like a “war of attrition”, it is as if the dark forces wants to wear us off … I think the best one can do is to preserve capital at this stage, and manage risk at reasonable levels…

      I just hope that from here on time is on our side… Each passing day raises the probability of good numbers to bring back AAPL to decent levels : ABOVE 265 ! …

      • Nicu

        Nicu 5:50 pm on August 19, 2010 2413 days ago

        @caruso2323
        you are perfectly right; those last buys represented at most 1% of the entire play (in $) with the hope to recover 2-5% … so the mistake is that I did not set an upper bound for how much to get into that BEFORE earnings, somehow I was too sure that earnings are great (were good, but I would not say great, only $.18 more than the previous quarter which did not have the iPad) and that there is no way it can stay under $260 for a full month

        so I was the frog in the boiling water, never alert enough to jump out, OUCH !

    • Nicu

      Nicu 12:42 pm on August 24, 2010 2409 days ago

      more VIX Oct 19 puts @ $.05, average $.175

    • Nicu

      Nicu 9:54 am on September 1, 2010 2401 days ago

      in a bit more of VIX Oct 21 puts @ $.15 – I would like to average down once more @ $.10

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 5:05 pm on September 8, 2010 2394 days ago

      Dumped my Jan 11 260s, some Jan 11 270s and 280s after having averaged down last week and in mid-August….small profit, but at least I have a good amount of cash on hand. I have Jan 11 250s, 270s and 280s left, and some Jan 12 240s and 250s…waiting for job numbers tomorrow and see what the pin is on Friday. Still 6 weeks to earnings, which I think will be blockbuster, but 6 weeks in this market is a helluva long time….Looking to average down on my Jan 11 calls before earnings, some Apr 11 calls and some Jan 12 calls….GLTA

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:30 pm on September 13, 2010 2389 days ago

      exchanged Jan ’12 $230 calls to $240 calls for $6.1 credit

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:16 pm on October 8, 2010 2364 days ago

      out of the Oct. 21 VIX puts @ $.6 (those that I bought @ $.15)

      I could sell everything now for a small profit on 21 puts and a small loss on 19 puts, but I waited for too long to give up like that :)

      next limit sell @ $1 for those I got @ $.25

    • Nicu

      Nicu 3:25 pm on October 8, 2010 2364 days ago

      extra comments on VIX options experience : they were a great deal in May when VIX was approaching 15 and options were new and priced with the stupid Black-Scholes formula (that is, IV about 40-60 for calls, for example, you could get Oct. 19 calls for $2, and sell them in July for $15) … now you cannot find VIX calls with IV less than 100, most interesting ones are at about 150 (notice that to define IV, we need the BS formula)

      on the other side, they are european style options, meaning you cannot action them before expiration, which makes most puts trade at lower than the strike-VIX, situation in which the BS formula is not even defined, that is, there is no IV, the theory says this should not happen, still, I watch this state of things for more than one month

      to conclude, I should have had the balls to buy those calls when I had the idea, before everybody got smart about VIX calls that can surge (+300% in one day) any time there is a stupid rumor about Spain going broke or something – we had plenty of those during the last months

    • Nicu

      Nicu 2:42 pm on October 12, 2010 2360 days ago

      out of Oct VIX 19 puts @ $.2 (those I got at $.05 – more to go)
      out of Oct VIX 21 puts @ $1 (those I got at $.25 – more to go)

  • 1
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 12:45 pm on June 4, 2010 - 2490 days ago

    Anyone who messes with Rhinoceros 3D software can now view Rhino 3DM files on their iPad, iPhone, and iPod touch. http://www.irhino3d.com/index.htm

     
    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 4:11 pm on June 4, 2010 2490 days ago

      BUG REPORT – Replay button should say Reply instead

  • 1
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 10:47 pm on June 3, 2010 - 2490 days ago

    Do I really want Google to be my Big Brother and have all of my files stored with them? Isn’t that what centralized system is about? You know, communist system? Google already knows everything about you. Do I need them to own me completely? I like to have my stuff on my local computers, and what I want to access from outside I just save out there in the cloud. But do I want to be owned by Google? Wake up folks, Google isn’t the company you cheered for and helped spread 10 years ago. It is advertising behemoth that collects data about you and sell it in one form or other to advertisers. They literally know I wrote this few minutes after I clicked submit button. btw. Oracle came out with the same concept Google is trying many years back. It was called “Raw Iron”. It never took off.

    http://gizmodo.com/5552953/why-arent-i-the-center-of-the-apple-universe?skyline=true&s=i

     
    • GotWake

      GotWake 9:46 am on June 4, 2010 2490 days ago

      What?!?! You don’t think Google “accidentally” gather data on us? LOL

      Without a doubt, Google has turned into an evil company. I don’t use their email, because I really don’t want them data mining my private messages.

      By the way, this board looks great!

  •  
  • 1
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 3:06 pm on June 2, 2010 - 2492 days ago

    It seems after defying markets for a week, AAPL is tanking today. Dow is up 160 points and AAPL is barely staying in green. I wonder if it is because of the ATT announcement. Unlimited data plans under new ATT plans are gone. They added tethering but at additional cost of $20/month. New Data Pro plans are capped to 2gigs per month @25.00/month compared to previous unlimited data plans for 29.99. Each additional gig is extra $10/month. I think this is going to bite them. But then, where else will you go? Maybe there will be another carrier(s) announcement at WWDC, so we can have a little bit more competition. btw. I always thought they will have to do something like this. Years back I thought, text, sound and video will be three different categories, with each of them having their own price bracket. But then look at ATT, they can charge you extra 20 cents for messaging which is cheapest form of data. I think teens can spend a $1 in like 15 seconds!

     
    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 5:54 pm on June 3, 2010 2490 days ago

      In Canada, tethering is free with Fido and Rogers..but the carriers still suck…no sharing between devices…we’ll see what happens on Monday….

  • 4
    Nicu

    Nicu 4:56 am on June 2, 2010 - 2492 days ago

    I did some speculation about the new Ô£øTV on the Google board but as usual, some posts got deleted by those incompetent crooks … so here I go again.

    It should be something inexpensive that lets people get content that is not on iTunes store (not enough, Hollywood is too slow / stubborn – and people fell great about “freedom”, even if it gets them nothing sometimes).

    So what does Ô£ø have for that : iPhone OS, App Store, A4, new data center. So we could have a 10oz device (no screen, no battery) that has to be plugged into the wall socket and into the TV by a HDMI cable. Why not integrate it in the “charger”, as it is the case for Airport Express (less cables, no space taken on some flat surface) ? Controlled by the classic remote or any iPhone OS device. Apps from Netflix, Hulu & all the others could be used on the thing. And of course, games ! developers are already rewriting them for a different resolution, read iPad, why not full HD also ? Goodbye XBox, PS3, Wii …

    There is even better. As small and inexpensive, why not also integrate it in the gorgeous Ô£ø monitors ? They get wi-fi (and ethernet ?) and there is your digital TV / home theater (24″, 27″, 30″), video chat with grandpa’, games … at no extra cost than the monitor that you may already buy for some reason.

    I don’t think web on TV (with Flash support LOL) is the way to go, we’ll let Google try to convince people to search on their TV !

     
    • admin

      admin 1:24 pm on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

      I think I read about device like that on some Apple site. Small, size of the iPhone, portable. Maybe with Apple remote control and videoplayer will become the same device :-) btw. I don’t think $4 video rentals through iTunes is good business model.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 1:31 pm on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

        @admin
        Hi Consch, I received a mail related to your answer in my thread but it contains too much data about you for my taste : your IP for example. Maybe you could erase this data. Is there a way to opt out of receiving emails related to posts ?

        • admin

          admin 2:12 pm on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

          @nicu
          for now I turned notification off. I will make it optional when I turn it back on. Will remove all the info except for text of reply and link to reply comment.

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 6:11 pm on June 3, 2010 2490 days ago

      Would like to have Safari and bluetooth for wireless/keyboard mouse….and if it could work with EyeTV and have a USB port for more storage…long wish list, but for now, we’ll know when we know….

  • 8
    conshmillo

    conshmillo 7:32 pm on June 1, 2010 - 2492 days ago

    Out of all 240/260 AAPL JUL/OCT calls.

     
    • admin

      admin 9:54 pm on June 1, 2010 2492 days ago

      What a freaky close! But Apple insiders must know something because this is third day it is completely beating DIA/DJIA. I believe something big is going to be announced soon. Also AAPL crossed 258.85 resistance from May 18th. Will look for short term opportunities if it dips a bit.

    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 11:06 am on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

      AAPL always rallies into WWDC. the trick is to time the “sell on the news”. it used to be the day after, then became the same day, then the day before. it’s creeping forward.

      On my system, AAPL went over and closed under the (high) swing point of $265 once. To keep moving higher, she needs to close over 265. each time she goes over and closes under it increases the pressure down. Bear in mind sell on the news for above, and when it kicks in I expect aapl to dive back to 238 ish.

      I scalped some puts yday on AAPL, but was slow. only +$1. I am still underwater with my $250 puts on AAPL.

      Bought calls for SDS and QID, Sep and Oct, $1 OTM. Still expecting large down moves in market until Europe resolved.

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 6:06 pm on June 3, 2010 2490 days ago

      I am selling my June 270/280 calls on Monday, after the announcement….going to take a hit, but I bought the stock when it went under $250 to hedge my bet; hopefully I’ll even out on the cover….Going to hold on to my July 270/280s and Oct 310/300s for now….may roll them into January if I get antsy.

      Thanks for putting this up here. I was a long-time lurker on Google but never posted because my full name and email address were up there and was never able to change them…that said, I’ve known all of you for about 6 months now LOL.

    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 8:33 am on June 4, 2010 2490 days ago

      6 months? newbie :)

      Unlike Google boards, you can post TA opinions here without idiots claiming that TA is a bunch of BS. In fact, conschmillo was instrumental in converting me from a hard-core TA skeptic into somebody who uses it everyday now.

      I’ll state up front that I believe a major down trend has been created globally and we should be looking at how low shares can go, rather than how high. I may be wrong, but I’m trading what I believe.

      I use a lesser known school that emphasises volume and swing points. This philosophy states that AAPL has a high swing point May 13 of $265. To break a swing point you need to close over it, while going over it intraday and closing under it is considered a failure. The last 3 days AAPL went over it, and closed under it. Call it resistance, call it what you will, AAPL cannot stay over it. The more often this happens, the greater the chance of flipping around and running for a low swing point, in this case May 21 $231.35.

      Given that WWDC is coming up, we have two “news” forces fighting it out here. One is the inevitable rally into WWDC / iphone launch / os4 launch /ipad sales numbers. The other is the sell on the news, which is creeping forward slowly from being after the news to being before the news.

      Combine the news with the TA, and I believe that unless she can close over 265 pronto, she will succumb to a sell on the news and start caving in.

      If she breaks this support / swing point, the next stop is the huge volume day (day after the flash crash) where she bottomed out at $225.xx. This will be major, major support and will hold unless the overall market is headed back to SPX 800. If *this* happens, the absolute floor is the $199 from the flash crash day.

      I’ll also add that in a sideways or bullish market, AAPL is easily worth $300. But, as I said above, I believe we’re in a downtrending market for now.

    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 8:44 am on June 4, 2010 2490 days ago

      further to my above post

      AAPL is in a historic position in terms of one stock influencing the entire market. AAPL’s weighting the NDX (nasdaq100) is now 19.7%. Unbelievable. A bull / bear AAPL can influence an entire key index.

      Therefore, more than any other stock I can think of, AAPL has undue influence. A tanking AAPL can tank the whole ball of wax. The inverse applies too of course.

    • cparth

      cparth 2:12 pm on June 4, 2010 2490 days ago

      I am extremely bullish on AAPL for Monday, i was cautious when they announced earnings in April and had only few calls, where i did a killing, too bad could have done way more, but historically AAPL always tanked on news, not this time.
      My guess is that the sell on news paradigm does not apply anymore to AAPL because of the enormous amount of NEW investors trading this stock. And by investors i mean papa, mama and everybody else.
      I expect Steve to surprise us with something new beyond Iphone, AppleTV and sorts, i have my guesses as what it might be, but ill let myself be surprised.
      I see the stock jumping back to $270 within a few days if no other market related news hits us.
      I’m heavy into naked puts and out of money calls.
      If i’m wrong i’m just going to have to borrow some money to exercise all these options at expiration and ride it out…In the end, if Steve doesn’t die on us, there is no doubt we’ll see $300 in the coming months.

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 9:51 am on June 5, 2010 2489 days ago

      I picked up more June and July calls yesterday….I am hoping for an up-day on Monday (hopefully a surprise or two at WWDC), and then I am out and waiting on the sidelines with cash; maybe trade the swings; those worked out well the last 2 times. I don’t do any TA, just read up on what you guys say and look at trends; looks like we’re stuck in, let’s say, 235-265 range for now, until some catalyst for the stock arrives; Monday, possibly, or when they sell 3 million iPads, or when they sell 3 million iPhone 4s, or next earnings….but until then, lotsa volatility and lotsa negativity on the newswire…..

    • mikeinmontreal

      mikeinmontreal 11:47 am on June 7, 2010 2487 days ago

      I don’t like what I am seeing this morning. It’s starting to look like a non-event, share price wise. Market seems too bearish right now. If no major announcements this afternoon, I fell we may retest the 230s which would resignal a buy for me.

  • 22
    admin

    admin 9:40 am on June 1, 2010 - 2493 days ago

    You probably noticed I disappeared from Google Finance for a while. I have been extremely disappointed by Google Finance discussions board and their unwillingness to listen to user’s feedback. I decided to put together trading website that would allow decent discussions minus Google Finance shortcomings.

    I completely revamped old Traderhood website. New Traderhood is designed to be place for discussing stocks and trading. It is organized by stock symbols, just like google finance. The big difference is that on Traderhood, DISCUSSION  is the main feature and everything else is designed around it. At Google finance discussions had been made less and less prominent. Last Friday (May 28th), was the last straw, when they obscured discussions almost completely. To access them you have to really search for little tiny link to find them.

    Because the new Traderhood is built on completely different platform than the old one, those of you who already have an accounts will have to re-create them. Please use your google usernames when signing up so everyone knows who you are. This way we can maintain continuity.

     
    • admin

      admin 12:47 am on May 31, 2010 2494 days ago

      I realize there are going to be little quirks that will need to be fixed and adjusted. Please keep posting any bugs you find, so they can be fixed. Speed will improve too over the time. More tools and charts will be implemented as we go too.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:37 am on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

        @admin
        This is more like a suggestion / feature request than a bug report. Maybe one should be able to see the last post of any thread, instead or in addition to the first post. Related to that, keeping track of new posts (the thread was not viewed since the last n posts have arrived).

        The second, maybe harder to implement, is to have some kind of tree view for replies … not sure is better than chronological, it boils down to the average length of threads. If they are very long, tree is better, eventually with a feature to hyde all replies to some post.

        And some questions : no more chat room ? (not really necessary if the board is running smooth) no more dedicated trade “report” tools like “in call” “short” etc. ?

        Thanks a lot for your efforts, it already looks great !

        • admin

          admin 1:00 pm on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

          @nicu
          As for threads: Most of the stuff I did was done to make it easy for Google Finance users to feel familiar with environment + all the improvements google is unwilling to implement. I felt non-nested comments would put everyone more on the same level, but I have worked on nested version too, so it wouldn’t be too re-implement it.
          As for having last comment first, I think it works great for live chatroom, but for posts I think it works better to have top to bottom chronological order to see the continuity of discussion.
          One of the reasons I switched to discussion board from chatroom format was to have ability to look back and see old trades and exchanges. But I do have it on my list to implement some kind of Intraday chatter. There will be few “static” boards (no particular stock related) for discussions about things like technical analysis, taxes, option strategies etc. I am thinking to call the intraday trading chatter board “Trading Room” or something like that.

          • Nicu

            Nicu 1:34 pm on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

            @admin
            I was referring about the last comment in the thread list (to see which thread got updated), not in the thread itself – I also like the chronological order here :)

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:38 am on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

        @admin
        BUG REPORT : not really important, but I appear like “nicu” instead of “Nicu” :)

        • admin

          admin 1:14 pm on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

          @nicu
          username upper/lower case issue fixed

      • Nicu

        Nicu 4:58 am on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

        @admin
        BUG REPORT – there seems to be some problem with the formatting, empty lines (for readability) are not always preserved, see my new thread.

        • admin

          admin 1:09 pm on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

          @nicu
          formatting bug: thanks, I am aware of it. It will be fixed.

    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 12:26 pm on June 1, 2010 2493 days ago

      Suggestion – the “Add Comment” button should always be available/visible, without needing to click on “read more”

    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 12:26 pm on June 1, 2010 2493 days ago

      BUG REPORT – nolavabo here. When I posted the above comment, it identifies me as “admin”

      • admin

        admin 7:29 pm on June 1, 2010 2492 days ago

        @admin
        I see it. I will check it out.

      • admin

        admin 9:38 pm on June 1, 2010 2492 days ago

        @nolavabo
        thanks nolav. it is fixed now

        • RattyUK

          RattyUK 8:39 am on June 8, 2010 2486 days ago

          @admin

          BUG: OK the reply button is labelled replay on front pages.

    • nolavabo

      nolavabo 12:28 pm on June 1, 2010 2493 days ago

      Trading – still holding all shorts. I can admit to being nervous over the weekend, but I am relieved now. The only technical indicators I had for holding were historical volume and multiple MA lines of support being broken. These are not good for short term timing – however, as I mentioned before I believe that the long-term up trend is now broken and has become a long-term down trend.

    • admin

      admin 3:12 am on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

      Added 10 days price chart to “big picture” indexes/ETFs. Makes it easier to glance at most recent movements.

    • admin

      admin 1:07 pm on June 2, 2010 2492 days ago

      As for hiding posts/comments. The whole rating thing should allow users to monitor traderhood themselves. Currently article/post hiding is active. Anytime users mark some article as -5, it will become blocked. Title, excerpt will be obfuscated and you will have to click on it to see what it is about. This should prevent FUD titles as users will mark blatant FUDing/flaming with rating it down. Same thing will be done with comments. It shouldn’t be difficult with nested comments to implement see/hide switch for threads. That’s a good idea.

    • Rick-o

      Rick-o 9:27 pm on June 3, 2010 2490 days ago

      Hey, thanks for building this site! Nice! I’m also getting tired of all the BS from Google. This will be a refreshing change. I’ll be hanging out, but I’m in lurk mode mostly.

      My .02 is that I too like reading threads oldest message first. Keep up the good work!

      • admin

        admin 10:48 pm on June 3, 2010 2490 days ago

        @rick-o
        thanks Rick-o and welcome

        • nolavabo

          nolavabo 8:35 am on June 4, 2010 2490 days ago

          @admin

          Agreed. A toggle to choose newest first or oldest first would be welcome.

          @rick-o

          Welcome. Feels like Google is trying to let their boards die a slow death through starving them to death.

    • RattyUK

      RattyUK 7:34 am on June 7, 2010 2487 days ago

      Google have pulled the original posting with links from here. Left all the spammy posts (of course) but decided to protect the world from useful information.

    • hawkeye

      hawkeye 1:59 am on July 1, 2010 2463 days ago

      Damn… I was looking to find one of my blog posts from before about value investing… would you be able to recover for me consch?

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 4:55 am on July 1, 2010 2463 days ago

      If you posted it in daily chat, it’s gone. None of those were kept. That’s why I did the new one. Here is the link to remains of old traderhood, try if you can find something there…
      http://old.traderhood.com

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