• 4

    Richard 3:43 pm on November 4, 2015 - 808 days ago

    Ain’t it great? With the latest advance, if I want to go to a password-protected file, and my user name or password is, say, goinghome, then my computer asks me if I really mean going home? It just did that for this posting; I con’t complain (much) about that, it is when it is a username or password and asks its idiotic question that I fume and steam and vent on trader hood…. hey, look what it just did!

    • Zee

      Zee 4:14 am on November 7, 2015 805 days ago

      Hi Richard
      Besides goinghome. What other user names and passwords do you use?

    • henrystar

      Richard 11:54 pm on November 7, 2015 805 days ago

      stayingout, jumpingthefence, dancingMatilda, whoops, ….

      • henrystar

        Richard 3:00 pm on November 10, 2015 802 days ago

        Oops, II forgot supercalifragalisticexpialadoshous

        • Zee

          Zee 9:51 am on November 12, 2015 800 days ago

          What about: yeswehavenobananas.

  • Nicu 4:28 pm on October 25, 2015 - 818 days ago


    Lazy earnings estimates: revs $53+B, EPS $2+
    Guidance, to end: $80+B

    If I am right on earnings and on top of that we get the middle of the guidance range about $80B or more, there will be fireworks. I know I have waited for that for the last 3 quarters, results were good and nothing happened. But the entire market and especially NASDAQ want to roar back and Apple’s reasons could be the oil on the fire many other wait for!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 10:30 am on October 26, 2015 817 days ago

      My estimates for guidance (Q4 earning are interesting only as entertaining IMHO) are based on more or less flat iPhone sales y/y, but increased momentum for services (music, apps etc.), watch and iPad Pro.

      However, it is clear that iPhone # is the most sensible issue to investors. Happily, we won’t have those numbers until Jan ’16, so strong guidance for revenues will do for now.

      By my estimates, there are about 40% more iPhones in use now than this time last year. This means that if the % of 6s of all iPhones is at least 72% of the percentage last year, we have at least flat sales. There may also be stronger 6 sales along 6s than there were 5s along 6 last year. That could skew a bit the numbers.

      There is an iPhone issue that I do not understand so I cannot reconcile several data points. It is related to the aforementioned %. It is sourced here

      It looks like we are really close to that 72%, we are at 4.9% compared to 6.9% last year. But the contradiction arises from the fact that we know that 13M were sold during the first 3 days compared to 10M last year. And this is contradicted by the graph at Fiksu.

      So I have only one theory about that, but it is so speculative that I feel like an alchemist or a medic 500 years ago. It is that sales in China / Asia are so strong to make a large % of sales this year, yet they use completely different set of apps / services than those usually tracked by Fiksu.

      All this to say that I do not have a clue if iPhone sales will grow or not in Q. I am pretty sure there will not be a material drop, however. That’s backed by increased availability, both production and geography, but also later release that pushes a bit more of the initial surge of sales into Q1.

      If, on top of the reasons I have explained for my guidance estimate of $80+B, we have real iPhone growth (10+%), it will get crazy fun. Otherwise, any kind of twisted theories by the media could ruin our party!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 5:45 pm on October 26, 2015 817 days ago

      Indeed, “While the data is worldwide, the majority of Fiksu’s clients focus on user acquisition in the US and Europe, so the Asia Pacific region may be underrepresented.”

    • Zee

      Zee 7:09 pm on October 27, 2015 816 days ago

      Lazy is good. You have very good intuitive instincts. Cheers.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 8:20 pm on October 27, 2015 816 days ago

        Thanks for your confidence. We will see very soon if there is any good in my estimates :)

        As for lazy, yes, at some point I had quite a system, but after some point, the more I worked, the worse my predictions got. So now I try to put a bit of common sense and a trace of reports / articles read during the quarter. Probably a bit of instinct too, but that may be very misleading sometimes.

        • Nicu

          Nicu 8:23 pm on October 27, 2015 816 days ago

          brrr, too many “points” in my previous comment, but, hey, no edit!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 8:32 pm on October 27, 2015 816 days ago

      EPS $1.96 – close
      rev. $51.5B – far away
      guidance $75.5B – $77.5B – far away

      not so good instinct after all :(

      • SB

        SB 10:15 pm on October 28, 2015 815 days ago

        Guess it was good you didn’t participate in PED’s earnings smackdown …..

        • Zee

          Zee 4:09 am on November 7, 2015 805 days ago

          @ SB
          He didn’t hit the grind stone. That’s all. ,,, Do you want to give it a shot?

  • Nicu 11:16 am on October 20, 2015 - 823 days ago

  • Nicu 2:12 am on October 18, 2015 - 826 days ago


    Maybe I should sleep instead of building a nice little piece of software at 4 AM, not sure if it’s me, but strange things are happening:, and are not accessible, most other sites seem to work, a bit slower than usual …

    • Zee

      Zee 10:55 pm on October 18, 2015 825 days ago

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 6:42 am on October 19, 2015 824 days ago

      what are you working on? your electric cart project?

      • Nicu

        Nicu 9:39 am on October 19, 2015 824 days ago

        somehow; I was designing some circuit by hand (I know, there are tools, but they are either too complex and specialized or too basic and counterintuitive and you lose 1 hour searching for the right component to place on the board); and when I was over 6 hours of drawing and copying and redrawing I decided I have to at least use the computer to design the partial circuit and print it and then complete by hand; so I am writing a software to design PCB; dead simple and super-quick interface that tries to mimic working with paper, also copying (and I think improving) some ideas from the CAD software I have used recently

        now this is just a bit deeper than it sounds, because in parallel I have a plan and some ideas to make a software to automatically layout traces on a PCB; but then I thought that making a GUI that recognizes holes, traces and components as logical elements on several layers and finds intersections, improper connections etc. is also a stepping stone towards the AI program; I gain experience of what are the real issues (both for the electrical circuit and the related software) but also build some of the tools needed for AI (find intersections, distances, electrical connections etc.)

        the circuit I was working for is precisely for the kart; I want to build a pack of super-capacitors in series and a balancing circuit so they are kept in voltage range and as equal as possible; in parallel with batteries, they have the potential to double the short term power for only 50% or less extra weight; they would also protect batteries from PWM and sudden changes in power demand / regen; as they can charge super-quickly, it may also improve the regen efficiency, thus needing a smaller battery for the same range … sweet dreams :)

  • 4

    piero 4:52 pm on October 14, 2015 - 829 days ago

    Sorry guys, just and advice where I can find the day chart of a stock on a certain day. Like CSIQ on August 19, 2015….

    Thank you in advance!

    • Nicu

      Nicu 6:36 pm on October 14, 2015 829 days ago

      I think that’s going to be a bit hard to find. Google and other free services give you 5 days or so of intraday data and pro platforms give you 30 days. There may be some paywalls that hide that info, but I do not know any in particular. Hope somebody else could help.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 3:34 am on October 15, 2015 828 days ago

    • Zee

      Zee 1:50 pm on October 15, 2015 828 days ago

      @ piero
      Can you explain for me why only the 19th? I was looking at the chart and I don’t understand your reasoning.

    • piero

      piero 3:43 pm on February 1, 2016 719 days ago

      Thanks to all! Sorry for this late reply.
      @zee I need the 19th because I had a problem with my old bank and trading account and that day I lost about 8k because I couldn’t sell CSIQ that jumped for some rumors!

  • 14

    Richard 12:58 pm on October 12, 2015 - 831 days ago

    I am worried about iCloud. My computers are back in operation after my Mac Pro died, and I decided to try iCloud for the first time. My God! The web documents make it look a Geek’s Delight. All I want to do is have a few pages automatically update on my other two computers when I make changes on one computer. I have no idea how to do that…. Not good for Apple stock, Apple is supposed to be EASY and intuitive.

    • conshmillo

      conshmillo 7:58 am on October 14, 2015 829 days ago

      Forget about Apple. Bunch of dilettantes now set the direction. It’s over.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 1:16 pm on October 14, 2015 829 days ago

        Yep, they will only book about $80B in revenue this current quarter and about 100% of profits in the world phone handset market ;)

        • conshmillo

          conshmillo 3:37 am on October 15, 2015 828 days ago

          That doesn’t impress me, same as Microsoft din’t impress me whilst being wildly profitable.

          • Nicu

            Nicu 7:17 am on October 15, 2015 828 days ago

            MS were very competitive in the 90′ to get to their almost monopoly, you have to give them that. Then they simply exploited their monopoly for 20 years.

            Apple has very strong competition now from many angles. However, they manage to grab market share with the most expensive handsets. This means they are doing something / many things right, I hope you do not believe the “luck” or “cult” arguments being tossed around for the last 10 years.

            • conshmillo

              conshmillo 11:28 am on October 15, 2015 828 days ago

              I always call it as I see it. I praised Apple for quarter of the century. Now I don’t. They are on their way out as I see it. They’ve got no more mojo.

            • SB

              SB 6:18 pm on October 15, 2015 828 days ago

              If Apple has lost their mojo, who has found it?

              Wanted to reply to Consh, but no reply link present. May reply limit?

            • Zee

              Zee 7:46 pm on October 15, 2015 828 days ago

            • conshmillo

              conshmillo 9:03 pm on October 15, 2015 828 days ago

              It’s not limited to one entity. But let’s say Tesla has it.

            • Zee

              Zee 4:14 am on October 17, 2015 826 days ago

              In the Michael Dell biopic, Dell will be played by Tom Cruise who will be seen on screen telling his employees: “I want all of you to think the same. Same. Same. Same thing. Or you’re gone. Are we clear on that? All together now: Yes Sir.”

            • Zee

              Zee 4:20 am on October 17, 2015 826 days ago

              Tesla has it? Or you mean Elon Musk has it? That’s b/c he’s also an astronaut, Kung fu master and vampire hunter.

            • conshmillo

              conshmillo 11:03 am on October 17, 2015 826 days ago

              Apple had it because of Jobs. Tesla has it because of Musk.

            • Zee

              Zee 12:31 pm on October 17, 2015 826 days ago

    • henrystar

      Richard 12:13 pm on October 18, 2015 825 days ago

      Mail stinks on my new laptop. Totally erratic. And the same on my new iMac. Have to get mail on my iPhone or my nice old laptop. I think Consh is right. Maybe if AAPL hits a new high, I’ll finally bail out. Just buy T-bills.

      • Nicu

        Nicu 3:54 pm on October 18, 2015 825 days ago

        Apple was always behind when it comes to anything online. I hate some things related to iCloud (many apps in 10.9 insist to save files to iCloud first and I systematically have 2 extra clicks when I just want to save a document in Documents).

        One slight improvement I have noticed is that in September the live video of the event went almost with no hiccup, which is great improvement for them. I think they are getting slowly to a bearable net + Mac usage. But you only notice those things when they do not work, everything else we take for granted goes unnoticed.

        iOS + net is doing much better, it simply shows where their focus, money, engineers and sweat goes first.

        iOS, app store and devices are such a revolution when you look at 10 years scale, economically, technologically and from a public acceptance / learning POVs. It simply dwarfs whatever legacy (Mac, iPod) is left. Like most of you, I still spend most of my daily time (and lately the nights, too) on a Mac, not on some iOS device. And I crave a great computing experience. But we are dinosaurs on the way out, that’s all.


    Nicu 6:43 pm on October 6, 2015 - 837 days ago


    in 4 lots of Jan 2018 $120 C @ $17.05


    Nicu 3:48 pm on September 25, 2015 - 848 days ago


    in 6 lots Oct 02 $120 C @ 22c

  • 2

    Richard 9:02 am on September 18, 2015 - 855 days ago

    Just a comment on how things are today: there is an ad from that now appears on practically every web page I go to. They won’t let me go! They want my $249.99 ! How it came about – my computers are almost as old as I am (well, not quite) and my Mac Pro died (all backed up) and the new NEW Mac Pro isn’t out yet and on a whim I clicked on an ad for an identical refurbished replacement (temporary) for my existing dead Mac Pro … cause it was only $249.99 !! Silly me, but an interesting experience – I don’t know how much they are paying for all those ads that are following me around—at least a few bucks! (Anyway, I’ve now got a new MackBook Pro (don’t like it as much as my old one, which I still have) and a new iMac will arrive next week. I won’t get a Mac Pro even when the new version finally comes out):

    Apple Mac Pro A1186 (2x) Xeon (5150)…
    $249.99 Making your IT dollars go further!

  • conshmillo 5:04 am on September 18, 2015 - 855 days ago


    Sorry guys, server was down. I am traveling and could not get to it sooner.

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